1. Guidelines for future developments Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

2. Work Packages/Groups Coordinators meeting
Bologna, 9-10 September 2004
Preliminary planning of activities for the next year

3. Perspectives and specific tasks for next year have been drafted as a preparatory work for the planning phase of tomorrow.

4. Planning procedure
STC
WG coordinators
SPM
GOALS/PERPECTIVES
Long term (some years) aims/objectives
WG coordinators
Input from WG participants
SPM
WG coordinators
Input from WG participants
SPM
During the preparatory phase of the COSMO general meeting
ROAD MAPS
How to achieve these objectives
SPECIFIC TASKS/NEXT YEAR ACTIVITIES
Precise definition of work packagess

5. TOP priorities are identified as regards both ROAD MAPS
Planning procedure
TOP priorities are identified as regards both ROAD MAPS
and
SPECIFIC TASKS

6. ACTIVITIES, and precise definition of work-packages, are discussed and almost completely defined during the COSMO general meeting.
Activities plan includes:
Definition of TOP priorities
Committments with time schedule

7. Planning procedure
After the general meeting the final tuning of the yearly working plan is completed in about 1 month period.
End of November the working plan is presented to the STC for the final approval.
After approval of Top priorities STC members should do their best to assure committments will be fulfilled.

8. 3 2 1 4 6 5 Enhance Use of Remote-sensing data in data assimilation
Doing
high resolution
forecast at the
meso-gamma scale 1
Improve of LM
system
At the current
Resolution 4
Development of
Ensemble Systems
Based on LM 6
Improve
exchange
with other consortia 5
Improve
internal exchange
and
communications

9. Road maps 2 1 Assimilation of radar data
Doing
high resolution
forecast at the
meso-gamma scale
Assimilation of radar data
Assimilation of satellite data
GPS Tomography
Tuning of the nudging scheme
Nudging scheme for z-coordinates
Use of surface level data
LM-Z or not LM-Z
Increase the accuracy with the required efficiency (operational requirements) 1
Improve of LM
system
At the current
Resolution
Complete the implementation of the Lake model
Implementation of 3–D turbulence
Development of radiation scheme
Implementation of soil model
Advanced microphysics scheme
Improvement of PBL
Shallow convection
Meso-gamma radiation
Improve the QPF at scales at
which deep convection must
be parametrized
Post-processing
Verification on the meso-gamma scale

10. Road maps 3 Assessment of COSMO-LEPS ……………… Development of
Ensemble Systems
Assessment of COSMO-LEPS
………………

11. Road maps 5 4 Improve exchange with other consortia Improve
internal exchange
and
communications
Some test cases for intercomparison with AROME
Visiting scientist programme
Guidelines
Post-Processing SW
High quality WEB site with updated documentation and information also for internal exchanges
WG6 workshop with special about operational implementations

12. Road maps P1-P2-P4) probabilistic verification
P1-P2-P4) Improve exchange and comparison of results (mainly on the WEB )
P1-P2-P4) Definition of “common LM problems
P1-P2-P4-P5) Consolidation of common data-set
P1-P2-P4) Common verification package at ECMWF
P1-P2-P3-P4) Exchange of data with other consortia-
P1-P2-P3-P4-P5) Visiting scientist programme

13. Suggestions concentrate on core activities => smaller number of WPs
Avoid to put interest; try to define precise contributions (small but as realistic as possible)
Keep the WG coordinator informed
WG coordinators must spread information within their WG

14. Good work!

15. Consolidation, Documentation and Upgrade of the LM
Goals and perspectives for the past COSMO period (10/ /2004) are:
Goals :
Consolidation, Documentation and Upgrade of the LM
Quality of precipitation forecast
Assessment of the 'realism' of forecasts
Multi-national assement assesment of COSMO-LEPS products
Assimilation of remote sensing data
Application and Interpretation
Statistical interpretation of high resolution forecasts
Paving the way for the Meso-gamma scale
Z-coordinate model version
New parameterization schemes
forefront verification and case studies
Perspective Issues are:
Variational Methods for Estimating Local Parameters