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Cryptocurrencies and the role of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in the entrepreneurial finance
Dr Yannis Pierrakis Small Business Research Centre, Kingston Business School, Kingston University London
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What is an ICO? An ICO or Initial Coin Offering is the initial offering of a digital cryptographically secure piece of data (a digital token) created on a blockchain as part of a decentralised software protocol An ICO is a popular way to raise money for a new project/start up by distributing a percentage of the initial currency supply to early supporters of the relevant project Unlike conventional crowdfunding, however, tokens are usually tradable via online exchanges. This liquidity helps attract investors, and means that the overall ICO process has similarities both with conventional crowdfuning and with an Initial Public Offering
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Top ICOs raised in 2017
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Top ICOs raised in 2018 and return to investors
Source: Bitcoinmarket Journal
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ICOs trends
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How does it work OR Users
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How does it work Exchange Platforms OR Users Services
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Digital assets – some definitions
ICOs (Initial Coin Offering): Digital money: when a coin is issued (e.g. bitcoin, etherium, litecoin) Utility token: when a token is issued for future participation in the ecosystem the startup is creating STOs (Security Token Offering): Tokenised securities – a version of a fractional digital ownership of: Equity Real estate, debt, other
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VC, CF, BAs vs ICOs VC, Crowdfunding, BAs ICOs Slow settlements
Many intermediaries Costly process Opaque process Lack of liquidity for investors ICOs Can raise money in seconds (e.g. Filecoin raised $252 Million in 30 minutes; Brave’s 'Basic Attention Token' raised $36 Million in 30 seconds) No intermediaries involved Low cost of token issuance Transparent process Offers immediate liquidity to investors Paperless process
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VCs and ICOs VCs are often invited to take part in ‘by invitation only’ pre-sale of ICOs Emergence of VC funds investing solely on ICOs VC funds investing equity (fiat) and buying coins at the same time
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Key features of ICOs Start up: creating and harnessing value Investor
Fundraising (through platforms) Due diligence ( i.e. medium) Product validation and improvement (i.e. github) Marketing and advocacy (i.e. advisors and social media) Investor Access to pre-vetted digital securities Liquidity Original valuation of the company is done by founders Post-ICO valuation by crowd No control of the company No dilution Often victims of fraud (e.g. Confido)
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Current state of the ICO industry
Cryptocurrency bubble: original amounts raised by ICOs in 2018 are now worth much less due to the collapse of the cryptocurrency market [investors use cryptocurrency such as Ethereum (but not Fiat) to buy tokens] As a result, ventures may not be able to deliver on their promises Most tokens are now trading with significant loss – investors lost money Most tokens are not in use yet Only a small proportion of ICOs was originated by quality ventures STOs are increasingly more prominent
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Why policy makers should be interested (I)
Significant source of finance for startups (circa $4b in 2018) Potential impact: loss of monetary policy, loss of taxes, creation of a parallel economic not controlled by governments In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) declared that “almost all tokens would be classified as securities” under its definition and several ventures have been prosecuted since There is a need for a speedy government/legislation response to fully realise the potential of the industry
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Why policy makers should be interested (II)
Lack of investors’ protection Tax incentives offered to investors through other forms of investments (Business Angels, equity crowdfunding investors) could be also offered to ICO investors once a regulatory environment is confined
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Research objectives Potential impact of ICO strategies in:
(i) fundraising success (ii) product validation and (iii) legitimacy of the new venture We examine the extent to which ventures can improve ICOs success by adopting strategies aimed at building outsourcing and social capital, namely by providing free coins to outsource expertise and by adapting social media campaigns.
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Sample 2,721 ICOs between 2016-2018 Source ICOALERT ICODATA
ICOs websites ICOBENCH ICOHOLDER Crunchbase Variable Amounts raised X Outsourcing strategies Social media Human capital of founders Advisors
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Geography of ICOs Country Number % of sample United States of America
590 27.21 United Kingdom 257 11.85 Singapore 189 8.72 Switzerland 125 5.77 Estonia 93 4.29 Russia 57 2.63 Canada 51 2.35 Hong Kong China 40 1.85 Gibraltar 39 1.8 Australia 38 1.75 Germany 36 1.66
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Why ventures raise money?
Dummy indicating where the money will be spent Proportion of the money to be spent for this purpose Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Marketing 1,645 0.638 0.481 0.158 0.162 0.8 Development 0.512 0.500 0.188 0.220 1 Legal 1,644 0.424 0.494 0.039 0.072 0.85 Operations 1,646 0.429 0.495 0.096 0.161 Research and Development 0.221 0.415 0.077 0.170 0.83 Reserves 0.198 0.398 0.034 Business development 0.156 0.363 0.043 0.122 0.9 Admin 0.142 0.349 0.019 0.063 0.99 Team 0.128 0.334 0.023 0.079 0.75 Other 1,643 0.312 0.463 0.067 0.157 Overheads 0.044 0.206 0.007 0.046 0.84 Infrastructure 0.080 0.272 0.018 Security 0.059 0.236 0.005 0.024 0.25 Partners 0.061 0.239 0.009 0.040 0.4 Sales 0.055 0.227 0.012 0.65 Expansion 0.049 0.215
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Allocation of tokens Table 2a: Allocation of tokens (usage of the particular tool) Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Bounty program 1,875 0.359 0.48 1 Advisors 0.236 0.425 Crowdsale 0.899 0.302 Table 2b: Proportion of coins allocated to each tool 1,884 0.024 0.054 0.86 0.018 0.046 0.83 0.26
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Use of social media platforms
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Twitter 2,721 0.721 0.448 1 Telegram 0.682 0.466 Facebook 0.622 0.485 Medium 0.444 0.497 Linkedin 0.394 0.489 Bitcointalk 0.359 0.48 Reddit 0.345 0.475 Github 0.302 0.459 Youtube 0.274 0.446 Instagram 0.124 0.329
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Human capital variables
Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Advisors’ experience (number of ICO they advised) 300 10.733 19.05 0 112 Number of companies founded by the team 463 12 Female in the team (dummy) 1 Number of founders 36
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Results – Outsourcing an Social Media strategies
VARIABLES Amount (log) Amount (log) Outsourcing Social media Bounty prop. (2-4%) -0.165** - - Medium 0.128* + (0.0802) (0.0661) Bounty prop. (>4%) -0.352*** - - - Linkedin 0.258*** + + + (0.0754) (0.0615) Advisors prop. (2-4%) -0.145 Facebook -0.256*** (0.124) (0.0823) Advisors prop. (>4%) -0.155** Github 0.397*** (0.0759) (0.0641) Crowdsale prop. (20-40%) 0.120 Twitter 0.0496 (0.0992) (0.105) Crowdsale prop. (41-60%) 0.148* (0.0816) Crowdsale prop. (>61%) 0.205*** + + + (0.0786) Country FE Yes Industry FE Constant 1.422*** (0.143) Observations 2,090
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Results – Human capital
Variables Amount (log) Advisors’ experience 0.112** + + (0.004) Twitter followers 0.0377** (0.0186) No of companies previously funded 0.0763* + (0.0437) Female in the team -0.392** - - (0.176) Number of founders 0.102*** + + + (0.0321) Outsourcing strategies controls Yes Industry FE Country FE Constant 1.031*** (0.319) Observations 296
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Key findings The higher the proportion of coins offered for sale to the crowd the more likely for the ICO to succeed Offering free coins to outsource talent is not always a good thing Strategies to attract advisors only work when they attract experienced advisors The presence of a female in the venture team is associated to ICO failure, while the more founding experience the founders possess the more likely is for the ICO to succeed The use of Github and Linkedin is associated with ICO success In contrast the use of Facebook is associated to failure
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Conclusions Post-ICO bounty programs allocation may be seen as risky by investors (i.e. lack of internal expertise) and it should be allocated prior to ICO There is a need for better pre-ICO vetting of advisors Social media platforms that allow interaction between IT specialists, advisors and investors are integral part of the process The fundamentals of successful ICOs’ founding teams are similar to those raising money through other forms of funding
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