1. Ensuring Aviation Safety in a changing world
Presented by
Yannick Malinge / Senior Vice-President & Chief Product Safety Officer

2. The changing landscape of Aviation…
In 1960, 40 aircraft took off every hour. Today, there are 3100 aircraft taking off every hour, that is almost one every second around the world.

3. The changing landscape of Aviation…
The number of commercial airlines worldwide increased by 70% over the past 40 years. It doubled in the Indian sub-continent. It more than trippled in China. It was multiplied by 4.5 in CIS. Today, there are more than 2000 commercial airlines around the world

4. The changing landscape of Aviation…
The number of airports for commercial aviation worldwide remained virtually unchanged over the past 40 years. In Europe, Japan or the US, 1 runway is built every ten years. In China 82 new airport projects are planned to be started by the end of 2015.

5. The changing landscape of Aviation…
The fleet of the largest airline is above 700 aircraft. 40% of airlines have a fleet of less than 5 aircraft.

6. The changing landscape of Aviation…
In 1970, a « low cost » airline didn’t mean anything Today, 15% of the traffic is performed by low cost airlines worldwide
Southwest was the first low cost airline ever. It started in 1971.

7. The changing landscape of Aviation…
In the 80’s, airlines employed almost exclusively local pilots Today, some airlines employ more than 10 different nationalities of pilots

8. The changing landscape of Aviation…
A barrel in current US $ was around 33 $ in 1982, 19 $ in $ in 2002 Today, it is above 100 $
Source of Data: IHS Global Insight

9. What will the aeronautical environment look like in the future?

10. dynamic complex system
Air Transport is a
dynamic complex system
with huge variability

11. What is the Global Safety Perspective ?
What are the possible ways forward ?

12. Where do we stand in terms of accident records?
Fatal accident per million departures
1st generation
Early jets
2nd generation
2nd jet generation
4th generation
FBW
Flight Envelope
Protection
All generations

13. The key question: how to move forward?
Fatal accident per million departures
1st generation
Early jets
2nd generation
2nd jet generation
4th generation
FBW
Flight Envelope
Protection
All generations

14. Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES
Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards
Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES
The holistic nature of air transport
The variability of operational contexts
The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

15. Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES
Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards
Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES
The holistic nature of air transport
The variability of operational contexts
The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

16. Fatal accident rate – Dec. 2012
Fatal accident per million departures
1st generation:
Early jet
1st generation
4th generation:
FBW
Flight Envelope
Protection
4th generation
3rd generation:
Glass-cockpit
Nav display
FMS
3rd generation
2nd generation:
2nd jet generation
2nd generation
All aircraft
Years of operation
Sources: Ascend, Airbus

17. Fatal accident rate What has aviation learned?
BSE Workshop
Toulouse, 13 Sept. 2013
Fatal accident rate
Fatal accident per million departures
1st generation:
Early jet
1st generation
4th generation:
FBW*
Flight Envelope
Protection
4th generation
3rd generation:
Glass-cockpit
Nav display
FMS
3rd generation
2nd generation:
2nd jet generation
2nd generation
What has aviation learned?
Automation has brought safety benefits & will continue,
Sharing of information is vital,
Keeping highest training standards is one of the keys.
*100% of Airbus today production line from A318 to A380
+ B777 and B787
All aircraft
Years of operation
Sources: Ascend, Airbus

18. High professional standards
Air Transport: a dynamic complex system with huge variability
Need to maintain the highest professional standards
One example: evolution of pilot job
Pilots are less & less exposed to manual flying conditions
Evolution of pilots background
Demand for new pilots
EBT, learning from positive, sharing experience

19. High professional standards

20. Taking safety for granted
10-7
Safe Air Transport System
Safe Airline Operations
Growing fleet
Variability of configurations
Ageing fleet
New business models
Increased operational
pressure
Evolution of aviation
professionals
Variety of aviation background
Evolution of ATM
New operations (e.g. RNP)
Evolution of regulation
Increased financial pressure
Increased operational pressure &
congestion in some areas
Safe Aircraft
Within a context of fast developing countries, buzz society, increasing liability stakes
developing safety awareness and sound SMS

21. Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES
Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards
Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES
The holistic nature of air transport
The variability of operational contexts
The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

22. The holistic nature of Air Transport System
A number of safety initiatives have been launched over the years by the individual actors of the air transport system, eg
Flight Envelope Protection
Terrain Avoidance Warning
Runway Overrun Protection
Short Term Conflict Alert ….
Need for more combined approaches at ATS level
RNP deployment program
Regional Aviation Groups …

23. Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES
Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards
Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES
The holistic nature of air transport
The variability of operational contexts
The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

24. The variability of operational contexts
In many cases ways forward to enhance safety are known,
but not implemented, eg
Offer alternatives to circling approach
Runway design: grooving, safe overrun,
Ensure basics are known and understood
Ensure implementation of robust Flight Data Monitoring
Promote the sharing of information …
Need for ad hoc approaches
Capability to focus on the right things to do first

25. Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES
Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards
Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES
The holistic nature of air transport
The variability of operational contexts
The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

26. The dynamic nature of the Air Transport System… and its uncertainty
Probabilistic approaches allow for anticipating a number of scenarios. Yet, there will always be unprecedented and unanticipated situations…
Coping with of air transport evolution and its uncertainty: need for prospective approaches
Considering the pace of evolution of air transport and the overall worldwide context, there is a need for approaches looking at possible future evolutions and associated safety concerns to become more proactive than reactive.
 Need for prospective approaches: volcano in Iceland, 911, Developing ATS resilience
Although many things can be anticipated and controled, it would be unrealistic to pretend that every single situation can be anticipated and a proper answer developed a priori. Events such as 9/11 or the eruption of the volcano in Iceland are illustrations. Therefore, in order to enhance safety at the air transport system’s level, there is a need to improve resilience i.e. capability to continue to ensure safe operations despite unforeseen « shocks ».
From a priori responses…to resilience

27. Thank you
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