1. WHY DO SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECOME AND STAY DEMOCRATIC
WHY DO SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECOME AND STAY DEMOCRATIC? WHY DON’T OTHERS?

2. IS THE THIRD WAVE OVER? WHAT ABOUT A FOURTH WAVE?
Larry Diamond: There are only 30 core democracies, 8 of which are micro states. Democracies have come in waves where “reverse waves” usually eliminate half of the new ones. We seem to be in a reverse wave
Looming threats
The Chinese political/economic example: Russia, Turkey, Iran, the Philippines (and India and the US?)
US withdrawal and exhaustion
Economic and performance crises; inequality
Civic decay and state violence
Nationalist and theocratic movements
Authoritarian enclaves
Impediments to reversal
Professionalization of militaries
Cultural penetration of democracy everywhere
No coherent global alternative ideology to liberal democracy… yet (Duarte; China, Russia, Venezuela, Turkey)
Trade relationships and organizations

3. WHAT ARE THE PREQUISITES FOR DEMOCRACY?
No political polarization around insurmountable differences
Economic/social structures that reinforce power sharing institutions and norms… per cap. $8K per cap sustains, but as little as 1.5K can work. Oil wealth not as helpful even if distributed broadly.
Elite attitudes matter more than mass attitudes
Previous experiences with democracy are critical
Why does democracy happen in waves?
A certain mass political culture?
A “snowball” environment and hegemon press8res helps…

4. HOW DO COUNTRIES BECOME (AKA TRANSITION TO BEING) DEMOCRATIC?
Types of transitions:
Government-dominated: Most successful in the short term
Negotiated: Most successful in the long-term
Bottom-up replacement: Satisfying, but problematic
The “Players”:
Hard-liners, soft-liners; moderates
Preference orders
Process tradeoffs:
Short-term vs. long-term
Economic vs. political transition
Justice and reparations

5. WHAT MAKES DEMOCRACIES ENDURE?
Consolidation requires legitimization
Behavioral vs. attitudinal (norms) dimensions
Elites, civil society, mass public
The behavioral dimension
The infrastructure of lasting democracies
A strong civil society
Independent media
Political society (especially political parties)
Institutions for the rule of law and citizenship
Rational administration with state accountability
A regulated market economy?

6. DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH? WHAT DIRECTION IS THE RELATIONSHIP?
Three possibilities: XY; YX; Spurious variable Aboth X & Y. And then there is the “sometimes” factor: necessary vs. sufficient causality.
Why do democracies excel?
Voters care about economic performance a lot!
Some combination of checks and balances (in most) and coalition government: deliberation & consensus
Political monopoly tends to turn into economic monopoly; democracy usually =less
The free flow of information and transparency pressures
Adaptability and crisis management
Order matters: Does a focus on growth first make it more likely democracy will follow? Does growth-first stall democratization?
It is hard to liberalize economies under democracy
State capitalism provides an alternative to democratic growth
Authoritarian regimes are getting better at suppressing and using bad elections and propaganda: They’ve learned how to break the link between growth and democracy (for now)
Why does inequality matter? Populism