1. Decision Making Skills
Achala Dahal/Nabin Chapagain
Nepal Administrative Staff College

2. Forethought
Some are easy like…
Some are difficult like…

3. How decision matters ?

4. Decision matters
Organization
Team
Relation
Individual as a officer…

5. “A Decision is a Judgment.”
Peter Drucker
INTUITION (Gut Feeling – past experience and personal values)
REASONING/JUDGEMENT (Facts and Figures)

7. What best decision maker do ? -HBR review Sept 2018
They are very clear about the end goal;
They think in terms of options or alternatives, often out of box;
 They seek diverse inputs and look from different angles

8. Albert Einstein- Rebel, failure, genius.mp4

9. “ I am not a product of my circumstances, I am a product of my Decisions”
– Stephen Covey

10. Obama’s way of decision making
"You're never 100 percent certain that the course of action you're choosing is going to work. What you can have confidence in is that the probability of it working is higher than the other options available to you. But that still leaves some uncertainty, which I think can be stressful, and that's part of the reason why it's so important to be willing to constantly reevaluate decisions based on new information.”- Barack Obama
Obama makes decisions slowly, and with head, not gut
Source: WashingtonPost.com/ Politics 2009

11. Decision Making Components
Environment
Decision Making Tools
Decision Making Realities
Authorities in Decision Making
Influencing Factors in Decision Making
Six Cs

12. Decision Making Environment

13. Factors influencing decision making
Cognitive and personal biases
Emotional bias
Skills and competencies
Situational factors
Instrumental factors
Integrity and ethics
Powers
Political
Legal, Social, Technological
Administrative
Muscle, Money…

14. Decision Making Realities
Everybody has their own unique set of values: what they believe to be important. The decisions that you make will, ultimately, be based on your values. That means that the decision that is right for you may not be right for someone else.
circumstances

15. Decision making tools Six thinking Hats Problem Restatement technique
SWOT analysis/ PEST analysis / Stakeholder analysis / Spoiler analysis
Pareto principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort
Brainstorming/ Delphi Technique / Nominal Group Technique
Cause and effect
Cost benefit analysis
 Problem Restatement Technique  Broaden our perspective of a problem, not to solve it  Help us identify the central issues & alternative solutions  Increase the chance that the outcome our analysis produces will fully, not partially, resolve the problem Decision Making Tools
50. II- SWOT Analysis: 1- Strength 2- Weaknesses 3- Opportunities 4- Threats Decision Making Tools
51. III- Pareto Principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort. Decision Making Tools
52. Decision Making Tools Individual Brainstorming: 1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes each idea further 2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but strange suggestions may appear stupid at first sight. Group Brainstorming: 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but can be time consuming 2. Needs formal rules for it to work smoothly( Disagreements) 3. Group brainstorming sessions are usually enjoyable experiences, which are great for creating cohesion in a team IV- Brainstorming: No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity
53. Decision Making Tools V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces:
54. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/benefit analysis – evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated with it. Decision Making Tools
55. VII- Six Thinking Hats- Tools/ Framework Creative Positive Objective Feelings Negative Process Avoid confusion Parallel Thinking = cooperation

16. Six Thinking Hats

17. Exercise Total Time: 30 Minutes
तपाई कार्यरत गाऊँपालिकाको सामाजिक विकास कोषमा १० लाख रुपैया छ । सो रकमको माग विभिन्न वडाबाट महिलाको क्षमता विकास, जेष्ठ नागरिकका लागि पार्क, विपन्न वर्गका बालबालिका लागि अतिरिक्त शैक्षिक कार्यक्रम र युवा खेलकुद विकास जस्ता कार्यक्रममा छ ।
सो रकम कुनै एक कार्यक्रमलाई दिने निर्णय six thinking hat को विधि प्रयोग गरि गर्नुहोस् ।

18. Decision making tools Six thinking Hats Problem Restatement technique
SWOT analysis/ PEST analysis / Stakeholder analysis / Spoiler analysis
Pareto principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort
Brainstorming/ Delphi Technique / Nominal Group Technique
Cause and effect
Cost benefit analysis
 Problem Restatement Technique  Broaden our perspective of a problem, not to solve it  Help us identify the central issues & alternative solutions  Increase the chance that the outcome our analysis produces will fully, not partially, resolve the problem Decision Making Tools
50. II- SWOT Analysis: 1- Strength 2- Weaknesses 3- Opportunities 4- Threats Decision Making Tools
51. III- Pareto Principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort. Decision Making Tools
52. Decision Making Tools Individual Brainstorming: 1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes each idea further 2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but strange suggestions may appear stupid at first sight. Group Brainstorming: 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but can be time consuming 2. Needs formal rules for it to work smoothly( Disagreements) 3. Group brainstorming sessions are usually enjoyable experiences, which are great for creating cohesion in a team IV- Brainstorming: No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity
53. Decision Making Tools V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces:
54. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/benefit analysis – evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated with it. Decision Making Tools
55. VII- Six Thinking Hats- Tools/ Framework Creative Positive Objective Feelings Negative Process Avoid confusion Parallel Thinking = cooperation

19. Decision making Styles/approaches
Authoritarian
Democratic
Laissez-faire
Authoritarian style includes:
Characteristics:
Demands group members perform tasks quickly and efficiently
Causes unhappy relationships to develop
Dictates group activity
Is firm, demanding and direct
Group does not experience feeling of teamwork
Does not accept the ideas of others
Uses power to influence others to carry out ideas
Tells others what to do
Limits discussion on ideas and new ways of doing things
Authoritarian leadership can be effective when:
Time is limited
Individuals/group lack skill and knowledge
Group does not know each other
Authoritarian leadership can be ineffective when:
Some degree of skill/knowledge is in members
Group wants an element of spontaneity in their work
Developing a strong sense of team is the goal
Democratic style includes:
Allows group members to feel they can do tasks their own way
Allows free flow of ideas
Asks before telling
Keeps group focused
Is friendly and sociable
Involves group members in planning and carrying out activities
Promotes a sense of teamwork
Motivates group members
Makes decisions and determinations based upon group’s consensus
Shapes groups with regard to consensus opinion
Democratic leadership can be effective when:
Time is available
Some degree of skill or knowledge among members of group
Group is motivated and/or a sense of team exists
Democratic leadership can be ineffective when:
Group is unmotivated
Laissez-faire style includes:
No skill/knowledge is in members
High degree of conflict present
Allows group members to do whatever they want
Gives little or no direction to group/individuals
Does not direct group activity
A person does not seem in charge
Is less structured than democratic
Stays on the same level as the group
Produces groups that are not very productive
Opinion is offered only when requested
Laissez-faire leadership can be effective when:
Routine is familiar to participants
High degree of skill and motivation
Sense of team exists
Laissez-faire leadership can be ineffective when:
Low degree of skill/knowledge is in members
Group expects to be told what to do
Low sense of team/independence
Which style or approach suits you ?

20. Approaches/Styles to Decision Making
No one style appropriate for all situations.
Occasions when one style rather than any other is more likely to produce better quality decisions implemented with greater success.
Each style has a probability of getting results depending on the maturity of followers and the situation.
Need to adopt a flexible approach by varying style in response to the nature of the decision and the context in which it is made and ultimately implemented.

21. Six Cs of Decision making
Construct: A clear picture of precisely what must be decided
Compile: A list of requirements that must be met
Collect: Information on alternatives that meet the requirements
Compare: Alternatives that meet the requirements
Consider: The “what might go wrong” factor with each alternative
Commit: To a decision and follow through with it.

22. Personal trap in decision making
Not willing to come out of comfort zone
Fear and biasness in thinking and analysis
Getting lost in minutia
Seeking unanimous approval
Willing to decide beyond authority

23. System trap in decision making
Too little, inaccurate or wrong information
Overlook viable alternatives or waste time considering alternatives beyond realistic prospects
Not following the six Cs
Failure to clearly define the expected results
Worst of all, failure to reach a decision

24. “Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”
System thinking is crucial
“Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”

25. “Oops!”

26. Considerations Priority Ethics Standards Implementation
Teams and Network
Technicalities
Indecisiveness and Decline
Diversity
Risk propensity

27. Conclusion No organization can run without making decisions
Wellbeing of an organization depends almost on the quality of its decisions
Make decisions based on rational process rather than temporary feelings
Make a habit of reevaluating own decisions: remove biases and errors
System thinking is crucial for organizational decisions

28. Thank you for your Co-operation and Participation.