1. Possible Major Severe WX Outbreak Today
A presentation for Baltimore Gas & Electric
By Climate Impact Company
Tuesday May 15, :30 AM EDT
Possible Major Severe WX Outbreak Today

2. Concern: Over-achieving Severe WX Outrbreak
Lately, NOAA/SPC outlooks have been too strong and too far north with activity forecasts.
Today is no different.
CAPE forecasts indicate strongest severe weather is in the DCA, BWI, PHL stretch.
CAPE is >3000 j/kg which supports tornadoes.
Potentially a very dangerous situation mid/late afternoon to early evening with exceptional event developing.

3. SPC & WPC Outlooks for Today
Strongest severe weather risk is too far to the north…
WPC has a beat on it…streak of excessive rainfall near Baltimore.

4. CAPE Forecasts Support Tornadoes
NAM: >3000 J/KG 4PM…
HRRR: >3000 J/KG 4PM…

5. Today’s BGE Forecast…
Flash flood watch in effect 3 PM to 1 AM Wednesday.
Warm and humid today, near 90 by 3 PM.
Expect a severe weather watch issued by 3 PM.
Severe thunderstorm risk begins 4 PM.
Strongest storms late afternoon/early evening.
Risks…Tornadoes, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, hail, heavy rain producing flash flooding.
Highest threat time 4-8 PM.
Keying on eastern service area.

6. Today’s ALERTS…
Western half of service area: Borderline ALERT 2 for wind gust to mph.
Eastern half of service area: Borderline ALERT 3 for wind gust to mph.
Primary concern: Tornadoes, flash flooding and high wind.
All clear after 9PM.
Request afternoon conference call for update.