1. Gyorgy Gyomai OECD Statistics Directorate
Standardized Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates
Gyorgy Gyomai
OECD Statistics Directorate

2. Outline Building on earlier work Methodology (steps involved)
The results
Tests and comparisons
Future dissemination vehicle (OECD.Stat, unified framework for cyclical indicators)

3. Building on earlier work
Paper presented at the EC – OECD workshop on international development of business and consumer tendency surveys:
“Calculation of normalised business and consumer confidence indicators and zone aggregates”. (Olivier Brunet and Ronny Nilsson)
Motivation: comparability, zone aggregate calculation, harmonized set of cyclical indicators
Comparability: easier country comparison; with smoothing and scaling the CI series can be fit in the cyclical indicator framework;

4. Building on earlier work (cont.)
Data Series used for calculation:
Business Confidence Indicators (manufacturing)
EC Confidence Indicators ( countries)
National Confidence Indicators (6 countries)
National Indicators proxied by Business Situation series (8 countries)
Consumer Confidence Indicators
EC Confidence Indicators (19 countries)
National Confidence Indicators (12 countries)

5. Building on earlier work (cont.)
Deviations from the previous paper
Changes in Zone definitions
Asia Major 5 instead of Asia Pacific
(China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea)
Some additional component data
Korea, Turkey
Indicator compilation without using the PAT de-trending method

6. Methodology (steps involved)
Frequency conversion
Q → M
Linear interpolation
Alignment (1st, 2nd or 3rd month of the quarter)
Smoothing
MCD method with max 5. month smoothing span
Normalization
Centring around 100, rescaling (to match the amplitudes of the reference series: IIP)

7. Turning Point Detection
Bry – Boschan algorithm
Part of the PAT-detrending implementation
Does internal smoothing (Searches peaks in original series, i. e. potentially relocates TPs found in the smoothed series)
Simplified Bry – Boschan algorithm
Standalone
Searches peaks in the input series (Assumes that the input series is already a smooth cyclical indicator)

8. Zones and Indicators Calculated Zones Compared Indicators
Asia Major 5: (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea) G7
Eurozone
OECD Total
OECD + Non Member Economies:
(Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation, South Africa)
Compared Indicators
Business Confidence Indicator (Manufacturing)
Consumer Confidence Indicator
OECD CLI
Reference Series (Index of Industrial Production)

9. Turning Points Table – Asia Major 5

10. Turning Points Table – G7

11. Turning Points Table – Eurozone

12. Turning Points Table – OECD + Large Non-Member Economies

13. Turning Points Table – OECD Total

14. Cyclical Indicators – Asia, Major 5

15. Cyclical Indicators – G7

16. Cyclical Indicators – Eurozone

17. Cyclical Indicators – OECD

18. Cyclical Indicators – OECD + NME

19. Data Dissemination New Subject Table in the MEI publication
Data views and download opportunities via OECD.Stat
OECD.Stat will contain a cyclical indicators area, where all data related to the analysis of economic cycles will be made available.
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20. OECD Statistics via OECD.Stat