1. Wind Energy Potential in Europe: 2020 – 2030
Model Calibration and Saturation Analysis
Michael Harfoot
Expert Meeting, EEA Copenhagen. 31st January 2008

2. Outline
Introduction
Model Calibration
Saturation Analysis

3. Introduction
Forecasting wind speeds at turbine height (i.e. near the surface)
Roughness (retardation)
Orography (large-scale influences)
Different sources for wind speed estimation
Model prediction
Satellite observation (Synthetic Aperture Radar)
Site observations (ocean buoys, Met stations, Radiosondes)
Reanalysis modelling (NCAR and ERA-40)
ECMWF wind fields
Spatial extent
High resolution
Homogeneous
Comprehensive observational assimilation

4. Introduction – European wind speeds
Wind Speeds across Europe

5. Model Calibration Aims Methodology
Confirm the GIS model methodology can reasonably predict wind speeds in agreement with observations, i.e. doesn’t result in large errors
Methodology
Comparison against
European meteorological stations for 2001 from National Climatic Data Centre,
For which wind speed observations made:
on average more than twice per day
for greater than 75% of the year

6. European-wide

7. Geographical differences
DE, DK, NL
NO, SE, FI
FR, ES, PT
AT, CH

8. Elevation/Orography

9. Roughness

10. Estimation of errors - High/Low wind speeds

11. Estimation of errors

12. Saturation Analysis Aims Assumption
What is the impact of assuming a ‘re-powering’ of the current turbine installations
Evaluate the impacts for installed capacity in NL is penetration levels for DK are achieved there.
Assumption
Repowering to 2 MW turbines each with a footprint of 0.2km2 (based on power density of 10 MW/km2 achieved with 5 turbines)
Repowering (DK) – 500 MW increase to capacity (ca. 15%)

13. Saturation Analysis (DK)

14. Saturation Analysis (NL)

15. Saturation Analysis

16. Saturation analysis

17. Conclusions
Wind speeds predicted using the model methodology show first order agreement with observations of surface wind speeds
Uncertainties are greatest for areas with higher surface roughness or significant terrain scales
Greater penetrations are acceptable where wind speeds peak
Saturation levels in NL and DK may achieved a penetration level consistent with potential
Based on our assumptions, saturation levels in DE are higher than in DK or NL