1. FPASTS STAG 1 plus – Rail Elements (Ellon Rail Study)
Member Briefing
03 November 2017

2. Structure Approach Option Specification Feasibility:
Operational
Engineering
Costings
Demand Forecasting
Benchmarking
Appraisal Findings

3. Background FPASTS STAG Part 1 completed 2015/16
Fraserburgh and Peterhead to Aberdeen Strategic Transport Study
Reopening rail line between Aberdeen/Dyce and Ellon identified as one option for further consideration
Prior to taking forward to STAG 2, greater confidence required as to technical and operational feasibility, and potential demand
STAG 1 adopted two approaches to forecasting demand:
One approach suggested scheme operating costs would be higher than revenue benefits
Alternative approach suggested scheme revenues would cover operating costs
Capital costs estimated between £130M-£260M
Annual revenue forecasts estimated between £1.3M-£5.6M with operating costs estimated at £2.2M
AECOM appointed to undertake “STAG 1+” exercise

4. Approach Initial Option Development
Stakeholder Consultation (Network Rail, ScotRail, Transport Scotland)
Assessment of Operational Feasibility
Assessment of Engineering Feasibility
Identification of Additional Infrastructure
Finalisation of Options
Development of Option Costs
(Rough Order of Magnitude)
Development of Mode Choice Model (Demand and Revenue Forecasting)
Benchmarking
Appraisal in line with STAG, including Economic Appraisal

5. Option Specification: Baseline Assumptions
The alignment should be based on the corridor of the existing F&B Way (the old railway alignment from Dyce to Ellon; now a cycleway);
Primary focus should be connecting Aberdeen-Dyce to an Ellon town station (this also allows future extensions north to remain possible). Ellon Parkway Station (i.e. station adjacent to A90/P&R) viewed as an additional option;
The opportunity for an additional station in the Newmachar/Kingseat area will be considered in all options;
Design line speed should be assumed as 75mph (maximum);
Rolling stock assumed to be Class 158s (confirmed with ScotRail);
Opening Year assumed as 2021 (for appraisal purposes);
New stations on the route (i.e. Newmachar and Ellon) would be un-manned;
A shared walk/cycle route facility is to be maintained alongside the railway;

6. Option Specification: Baseline Assumptions
The future baseline position regarding the existing railway between Aberdeen and Dyce should be assumed to include the following:
Infrastructure enhancements as planned in CP5 HLOS: two track railway from Kittybrewster to Dyce, but railway remains single track through tunnels north of Aberdeen station;
Resignalling;
Passenger services on the existing railway are assumed to broadly operate as per the December 2019 timetable, which was kindly supplied by ScotRail. This is moving towards the aspiration of a standard off peak hour service of:
1 train between Aberdeen and Inverness
1 train between Aberdeen and Inverurie
1 train between Montrose and Inverurie

7. Infrastructure and Rolling Stock Requirements:
Option Specification
Ref
Description
Infrastructure and Rolling Stock Requirements:
Option 1
Aberdeen/Dyce – Newmachar – Ellon Town Centre Service:
Hourly Service
New Stations at Newmachar and Ellon Town Centre (old station site)
Single platform stations at Newmachar and Ellon Town Centre
Two train sets required
Option 2
Aberdeen/Dyce – Newmachar – Ellon Town Centre Service
Half-hourly Service
Elimination of remaining single track section north of Aberdeen
Dynamic loops at Newmachar and two platforms required at Newmachar (only one platform required at Ellon Town Centre)
Three train sets required
Option 3
Aberdeen/Dyce – Newmachar – Ellon Town Centre – Ellon Park & Ride Service
New stations at Newmachar, Ellon Town Centre (old station site) and Ellon Park & Ride
Dynamic loops at Newmachar and two platforms required at Newmachar
Double track between Ellon and Ellon Park & Ride and two platforms at both Ellon Town Centre and Ellon Park & Ride
Four train sets required

8. Operational Feasibility
Option 1: Hourly Service to Ellon town centre
Aberdeen/Dyce – Newmachar – Ellon Town Centre Service:
Hourly Service
New Stations at Newmachar and Ellon Town Centre (old station site)
Feasible with the currently planned infrastructure enhancements between Aberdeen and Inverurie
Ellon branch can be single track for Option 1, however this results in high utilisation of the branch infrastructure.
Single platform stations at Newmachar and Ellon Town Centre
Two train sets required

9. Operational Feasibility
Option 2: Half-hourly Service to Ellon town centre
Aberdeen/Dyce – Newmachar – Ellon Town Centre Service
Half-hourly Service
New Stations at Newmachar and Ellon Town Centre (old station site)
Not feasible without elimination of the single track section north of Aberdeen because the quantum of trains using that single line is too great.
Additional infrastructure is needed to support Option 2 including:
Dynamic loops at Newmachar:
Two platforms at Newmachar and one platform at Ellon town centre
Three train sets required

10. Operational Feasibility
Option 3: Half-hourly Service to Ellon P&R
Aberdeen/Dyce – Newmachar – Ellon Town Centre – Ellon Park & Ride Service
Half-hourly Service
New stations at Newmachar, Ellon Town Centre (old station site) and Ellon P&R
Not feasible without elimination of the single track section north of Aberdeen because the quantum of trains using that single line is too great.
Additional infrastructure is needed to support Option 3 including:
Dynamic loops at Newmachar and two platforms at Newmachar
Double track between Ellon and Ellon Park & Ride and two platforms at both Ellon town centre and Ellon Park & Ride
Four train sets required

11. Engineering Feasibility
Site walk-through and review of structures conditions report to determine main constraints and possible works required to enable rail reinstatement
Engineering assessment has informed ‘bottom-up’ costing exercise
NOTE: Track alignment shown in this figure is indicative only. The purpose of the sketch is to show an indicative potential corridor and would be subject to design development at a later stage. The alignment would be rationalised through design to minimise land take, minimise the impact on neighbouring properties, and provide a compliant track horizontal and vertical geometry.
Dyce Tie-In

12. Engineering Feasibility
Newmachar S-Bends

13. Engineering Feasibility
NOTE: Track alignment shown in this figure is indicative only. The purpose of the sketch is to show an indicative potential corridor and would be subject to design development at a later stage. The alignment would be rationalised through design to minimise land take, minimise the impact on neighbouring properties, and provide a compliant track horizontal and vertical geometry.
Connection to Ellon Park & Ride

14. Estimated Capital Costs
Option Costings
Item
Estimated Capital Costs
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Construction Cost (allowance)
£122.5M
£139.6M
£171.0M
Design Costs (incl. design, project management, cost management, site supervision)
15%
£18.4M
£20.9M
£25.7M
Schedule 4 - Allowance for disruption to Network 6%
£8.5M
£9.6M
£11.8M
Network Rail costs
10%
£15.0M
£17.0M
£20.8M
Optimism Bias
66%
£108.4M
£123.6M
£151.4M
TOTAL
£273M
£311M
£381M

15. Demand Forecasting Development of mode-choice model forecasting tool
ASAM4 base demand
Model satisfactorily calibrated/ validated
Peterhead to Aberdeen (unweighted) Journey Times (2036)
Source: AECOM Mode Choice Model
Car
Bus
P&R Ellon
P&R Bridge of Don
Rail (hourly service)
Rail (half-hourly)
Journey Time (minutes) 66
102 89 90 83

16. Benchmarking versus STAG 1 study:
Element
STAG 1
STAG 1+
Capital Costs
£130m-£260m
£160m-£230m
Operating Costs
£2.2m
£2.9m-£5.3m
Revenue
£1.3m-£5.6m
£1.7m-£2.5m
versus STAG 1 study:
Demand forecasts benchmark satisfactorily against Borders Line and Larkhall
Demand forecasts benchmark well against similar stations which share geographical and demographic characteristics:
Station
Status
Population (Census 2011)
Distance to Aberdeen (miles)
No. of Trains per hour (approx.)
Patronage Numbers (actual and forecast)
Stonehaven
Existing
11,431 16
1-2 (3 during peaks)
535,698
Inverurie
12,654 17
1 (2 during peaks)
533,972
Laurencekirk
2,925 30
circa 1 (more during peak)
104,488
Ellon
Appraisal
10,268
1 to 2
320, ,000 (2021)
Newmachar
2,460 11
80, ,000 (2021)

17. Present Value of Benefits (£) Present Value of Costs (£)
Appraisal
Updated appraisal against TPOs (STAG 1), Implementability and Govt’ Objectives
Financial appraisal indicates a requirement for franchise subsidy
Economic appraisal based on costs and demand results (TEE) suggests scheme would deliver “poor value for money”
- Sensitivity Analysis suggests:
Significant increases in demand and/or decreases in cost required to obtain breakeven BCR
Newmachar strengthens the case, but not economically viable as standalone scheme
Application of Network Rail growth rates and increasing car parking costs in Aberdeen City centre strengthens the economic case but BCR remains <0.5
Options
Present Value of Benefits (£)
Present Value of Costs (£)
Net Present Value (£)
BCR
Option 1: Aberdeen/Dyce – Ellon Service (hourly)
81,641
336,046
-254,405
0.24
Option 2: Aberdeen/Dyce – Ellon Service (half-hourly)
111,447
404,072
-292,625
0.28
Option 3: Aberdeen – Ellon Service (A90 P&R site; half-hourly)
118,193
499,062
-380,870

18. Key Messages
Strong case for the scheme when considering the TPOs, public acceptability, safety, integration and social inclusion
Technically feasible – but there would be significant challenges
Key issues around value for money and affordability
Capital costs outweigh the benefits derived

19. Thank You & Questions Richie.Fraser@aecom.com

20. Benchmarking (2) Ellon 320,000-440,000 (2021) Newmachar
80, ,000 (2021)
Station
Key Details
Demand Forecast
(2015)
Actual Demand
15/16
16/17
17/18
Most Recent*
Tweedbank
P&R – 235 spaces, 37 miles from Edinburgh by car.
21,621
300,602
N/A
As per Yr 1
Galashiels
No P&R, 33 miles from Edinburgh by car.
23,431
213,760
Stow
P&R – 33 spaces, 26 miles from Edinburgh by car.
5,843
39,656
Gorebridge
P&R – 73 spaces, 11 miles from Edinburgh by car.
90,019
59,304
Newtongrange
P&R – 56 spaces, 10 miles from Edinburgh by car.
52,918
86,398
Eskbank
P&R – 248 spaces, 8 miles from Edinburgh by car.
130,525
128,298
Shawfair
P&R – 59 spaces, 6 miles from Edinburgh by car.
61,860
13,202

21. Benchmarking (2) Ellon 320,000-440,000 (2021) Newmachar
80, ,000 (2021)
Station
Key Details
Demand Forecast
(06/07)
Actual Demand
06/07
07/08
08/09
Most Recent*
Larkhall
P&R – 200 spaces, 18 miles from Glasgow by car.
217,700
268,700
307,900
323,300
420,366
Merryton
P&R – 80 spaces, 18 miles from Glasgow by car.
169,100
81,100
97,600
99,500
113,546
Chatelherault
P&R – 100 spaces, 16 miles from Glasgow by car.
38,000
17,300
23,500
41,000
85,898
Kelvindale
No P&R, 3.5 miles from Glasgow by car.
43,900
95,000
107,700
109,500
91,570