1. MOSAICC: MODELLING SYSTEM FOR AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Building evidence and capacities for climate change adaptation in agriculture
Maria Raffaella Vuolo, Mariko Fujisawa, Ana Heureux, Mauro Evangelisti and Hideki Kanamaru

2. What is MOSAICC?
Technically: a tool for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, hydrology, forestry, economy, at national and sub-national level
More broadly:
A capacity development tool
A flexible working platform, where models and data used depend on the country’s climate change vulnerabilities, country’s objectives, priorities and capacities
An interdisciplinary working platform that fosters the collaboration among experts in different disciplines
An inclusive approach that fosters the exchanges among different institutions, associations, stakeholders concerned by the impacts of climate change

3. MOSAICC: CONCEPT
Downscaled climate projections under various climate scenarios
Crop yield projections under climate scenarios
Simulation of the country’s hydrology and estimation of water resources
Economic impact and analysis of policy response at national level

4. Required input data from the country
For CC impact assessment on crops:
Observed climate variables (~20 years)
Historical yield data (~20 years) for the crops and regions of interest
Preferable: Crop phenology data*, soil properties**
* otherwise, tabulated values from FAO irrigation paper 56
** otherwise, HWSD (harmonized world soil database)
Other required data:
GCM-simulated climate variables (past & future)

5. Climate downscaling Statistical equation Grid Model output
Data for the points of interest

6. Modelling crop water requirements
SOIL - CROP WATER BALANCE
rainfall
CROP COEFFICIENTS & GROWTH STAGES

7. WABAL input and output
OBS or GCM
Input: Dekadal (10-day) climate data Crop coefficients and phenology Soil hydraulic properties (Water Holding Capacity) PET (Potential Evapotranspiration) Output: Crop water balance variables (ETAi, EXCi, DEFi, TWR, WSI)
From climate data
if <0, set to 0
if > WHC, set to WHC
Wa(ti) = Wa(ti-1) + Prec + Irr - ETA - Losses

8. Example of dekadal WABAL output

9. Example of annual WABAL output
NOTE
WABAL calculates the crop specific soil water balance
we need to calculate the yield manually!!!

10. Simulation of crop yields
Statistical regression with obs yields
GCM Climate Data
Hist/ 4.5/8.5
WABAL
WABAL GCM
Hist/ 4.5/ 8.5
Projected Yield
GCM-Hist
GCM-4.5
GCM-8.5
Yield change
4.5-Hist
8.5-Hist
Yield Function
Y= aX1+bX2+c
Crop Yield
Yield Anomaly
De-trend
Obs. Climate Data
WABAL output
Crop Kc
PET
PLD

11. MOSAICC climate results in Peru: projected Tmax changes
AMICAF project
Climate report from SENAMHI:

12. MOSAICC - Peru: crops selection for the study
RELEVANT CROPS AT NATIONAL LEVEL
RELEVANT CROPS AT REGIONAL LEVEL
Selection of crop data
A: low quality – not used
B: good quality but no correlation with climate – not used
C: good quality and correlation with climate – data used

13. MOSAICC-crop in Peru: projected rice yield changes

14. MOSAICC-crop in Peru: projected potato yield changes

15. MOSAICC-crop in Peru: projected banana yield changes

16. MOSAICC-crop results in Indonesia
CLASSES OF YIELD CHANGES
RISK CLASSES
DEFINITION OF RISK CLASSES BASED ON INTENSITY OF CHANGE, EMISSION SCENARIO AND TIME SLICE (near or far future)

17. MOSAICC-crop results in Indonesia
CLASSIFICATION OF DISTRICTS ACCORDING TO RISK LEVEL

18. MOSAICC-crop results in Paraguay
PROJECTED CASSAVA YIELD CHANGES (3 MODELS; 2RCPs)
PROJECTED SUGARCANE YIELD CHANGES (3 MODELS; 2RCPs)

19. Extended applications of results Morocco: WEB-GIS portal
> Simulateur
WHEAT YIELD CHANGE
Extracts from the MOSAICC results database the desired variable in the region, period and (eventually) RCP of interest
Access to meteorological, agronomic and other variables estimated with MOSAICC
Options: statistical and graphical operations on the selected variables
Time-series graphs

20. Extended applications of results Peru: Observatorio Nacional de Sequías (National Drought Observatory)

21. Example of policy recommendations and adaptation options based on MOSAICC outputs

22. Strength points of MOSAICC and extended benefits
Simple but robust approach for assessing climate change impacts at national to regional level
Country-driven approach
Builds a collaborative framework among experts in the countries
Involvement and capacity development within key country institutions (academia, ministries, NGOs, farmers’ associations…)
Inter-disciplinary approach that fosters the inter-institutions and inter-ministries collaboration
Flexibility of the system: different data/modules can be used according to country’s priorities, capacities and data availability
Wide range of possibilities on the desired output: different crops, spatial scales from national to local, according to country’s priorities
FAO’s support on both technical aspects and on coordination, collaboration among country experts etc.
Possibility of networking with other national programmes

23. Online resources and suggested readings
MOSAICC official website:
MOSAICC Morocco Web-Gis platform:
> Simulateur
On crop water requirements:
Fao drainage and irrigation papers 33, 56, 66

24. THANK YOU