1. FDC Presidential Poll October 2012
By RWI

2. Introduction
Research World International, an independent global research company commissioned this opinion poll between 25th September -3rd October 2012 with the aim of assessing the opinions of the FDC delegates about the on going party primaries to chose the leader of FDC.
Research World International designed and implemented a Public Opinion Telephonic Survey to assess the opinions and drivers of choice for the FDC leadership
The total sample was 500 but we managed to reach 445 delegates who were talked to and their opinion sought. This poll is given with a margin of error of +-2

3. Introduction Cont’d… The population investigated
The population (universe) investigated in this study was made up of all Ugandan persons who are FDC delegates both in rural and urban areas. For the purpose of sample design, FDC delegates register 2010 was used as the basis for estimating population distribution across regions. Uganda has four regions namely Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Regions. The sample was therefore distributed proportionate to the delegate samples in each region. You will also find that we did sub-regional analysis. See sampling below.

4. Study objectives This opinion poll had five main objectives, namely:
To get the delegates opinion on who they consider to be a most suited person to lead FDC.
Measuring the drivers of choice among the delegates
To Understand issues that are shaping the campaign

5. Sampling and research Methods
The sample is proportionate to the population of the delegates in each region
We used a telephonic method where the respondents were called while recording the responses on the a questionnaire
We had 5 interviewers and the interviews took approximately 8 days
Data entry and tabulation were done in house at RWI
Source of data : FDC electoral commission register 2010
Region
No. of Delegates per region as of 2010
No. of Delegates Sampled Per Region
No. of Delegates reached per region/done
Percentage of the delegates reached from the total No.
No. of delegates not Reached/not done
Central
174
115
108
62% 22
Eastern
200
144
129
65% 19
Northern
154
101 84
55% 3
Western
196
141
124
63% 10
724
500
445
61% 53
This excludes the Executive members/NEC Members

6. MEASURING THE KNOWLEDGE AND CANDIDATE ASSOCIATION

7. Qn1. Are you a delegate eligible to vote in the delegates conference?
Frequency
Percent
Yes
445
100% No 0%

8. Qn2. What is your position?
Frequency
Percent
Chairperson 81
18.2%
Commissioner 1
0.2%
Committee Member 2
0.4%
Councellor 8
1.8%
Delegate
208
46.7%
Deputy Chairperson
Deputy Secretary 4
0.9%
District Executive 3
0.7%
Elder Kayunga
Elections Supervisor
Incharge Security
LCIII Wakiso
Mobilizer 15
3.4%
NEC 9
2.0%
Secretary 74
16.6%
Speaker
Woman Representative
Youth Representative
Total
445
100.0%

9. Qn3. a)In the last one month have you been contacted by: Ekanya
Frequency
Percent
Yes
308
69.2% No
137
30.8%
Total
445
100.0%

10. Qn3. b)In the last one month have you been contacted by: Muntu
Frequency
Percent
Yes
345
77% No
100
23%
Total
445
100%

11. Qn3. c)In the last one month have you been contacted by: Nandala
Frequency
Percent
Yes
254
57% No
191
43%
Total
445
100%

12. Qn4. How were you contacted?
Media
Mugisha Muntu
Nandala Mafabi
Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
By SMS
48%
21% 2%
29%
Delegates Meeting
28%
22%
One to One
54%
17% 3%
25%
Phone
53%
27%
Rally
69%
23% 8% 0%
Through an agent
45%
32%
20%

13. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: a) Region where the Candidate comes from?
Rating
Frequency
Percent 1
357
80.2% 2 26
5.8% 3
0.4% 4 6
1.3% 5 23
5.2%
0.2% 7 8
1.8%
1.1% 9
0.9% 10 13
2.9%
Total
445
100.0%

14. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: b) Member of parliament
Rating
Frequency
Percent 1
205
46.1% 2 35
7.9% 3 23
5.2% 4 34
7.6% 5 74
16.6% 6 21
4.7% 7 17
3.8% 8 15
3.4% 9 13
2.9% 10
1.8%
Total
445
100.0%

15. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: c) Trusted?
Rating
Frequency
Percent 1
0.2% 4 2
0.4% 5 18
4.0% 6 37
8.3% 7 45
10.1% 8 38
8.5% 9 48
10.8% 10
256
57.5%
Total
445
100.0%

16. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: d) Charismatic Leadership?
Rating
Frequency
Percent 1 3
0.7% 2
0.2% 4 5 6
1.3% 20
4.5% 7 74
16.6% 8 54
12.1% 9 57
12.8% 10
229
51.5%
Total
445
100.0%

17. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: e) Good character?
Rating
Frequency
Percent 1 6
1.3% 3
0.2% 4 5 15
3.4% 7 66
14.8% 8 49
11.0% 9 10
252
56.6%
Total
445
100.0%

18. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: f) Similar Religion?
Rating
Frequency
Percent 1
397
89.2% 2 15
3.4% 3 9
2.0% 4 5
1.1% 6
1.3%
0.7% 7
0.4% 8
0.2% 10
Total
445
100.0%

19. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: g) Gives money?
Rating
Frequency
Percent 1
425
95.5% 2 4
0.9% 3 7
1.6%
0.2% 5
0.4% 6 8 10
Total
445
100.0%

20. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: h) Military background?
Frequency
Percent 1
173
38.9% 2 32
6.7% 3 22
4.5% 4 25
5.6% 5 79
16.6% 6 34
6.5% 7 27 8 21
4.7% 9
2.0% 10 23
5.2%
Total
445
96.4%

21. Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: i) A good mobilizer in your view?
Frequency
Percent 1 4
0.9% 2
0.2% 3
0.7% 5 6 17
3.8% 7 68
15.3% 8 69
15.5% 9 76
17.1% 10
203
45.6%
Total
445
100.0%

22. Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you
Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you? First Choice
Frequency
Percent
Muntu Mugisha
221
50%
Nandala Mafabi
125
28%
Geofrey Ekanya 11 2%
Undecided 88
20%
Total
445
100%

23. Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you
Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you? Second Choice
Frequency
Percent
Muntu Mugisha
119
27%
Nandala Mafabi
195
44%
Geofrey Ekanya 41 9%
Undecided 90
20%
Total
445
100%

24. Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you
Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you? Third Choice
Frequency
Percent
Muntu Mugisha 17 4%
Nandala Mafabi 34 8%
Geoffrey Ekanya
304
68%
Undecided 90
20%
Total
445
100%

25. Qn7. In your view, what do you think will happen to FDC party after the election? Will the party be;
Frequency
Percent
Stronger
291
65%
Somehow stronger 8 2%
United
103
23%
Divided 15 3%
Weakened 7
I do not know 21 5%

26. Qn8. Having listened to the campaign, who of the campaign team has showed maturity and care for the party during campaign?
Frequency
Percent
Ekanya Geoffrey 55
12%
Nandala Mafabi Camp 62
14%
General Mugisha Muntu Camp
204
46%
Did not Respond
124
28%
Total
445
100%

27. Qn9. Talking about the choice for the FDC presidency, if elections were held today, which candidate would you vote for to take FDC ahead?
Frequency
Percent
Mugisha Muntu
218
49%
Nandala Mafabi
111
25%
Geoffrey Ekanya 13 3%
Not decided
103
23%
Total
445
100%

28. Qn10. Generally, in your district, which candidate is likely to be supported by delegates?
Frequency
Percent
Ekanya Geoffrey 8 2%
Nandala Mafabi
101
23%
Mugisha Muntu
236
53%
Did not know
100
22%
Total
445
100%

29. Qn11. Please mention three things why that candidate is best to lead FDC
Why would you vote him
Mugisha Muntu
Nandala Mafabi
Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
Total
Addresses issues of the party 6 1 8
Brings resources to the party 5
Calm 15 3 19
Capable 2 11
Charismatic leader 9
Commited person
Conceded defeat in the previous election 12
Diplomatic 4
Does not support Tribalism
Friendly to people 16 23
Good as flag bearer
Good at public relations
Good character 34 14 50
Good Leadership Skills 22 39
Good listener
Good manifesto
Good mobilization skills 43 7 65
Good speaker 10 20
Has a clean record 40
He has been in opposition for long 13
He has ever worked in Government 24

30. Qn11. Please mention three things why that candidate is best to lead FDC
Why would you vote him
Mugisha Muntu
Nandala Mafabi
Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
Total
He has vision 5
He is a Gentleman 14 2 1 17
He is displined 8 9
He is focused 3
He is hardworking 23
He is more popular
He is Nationalistic 4
He is not busy like Nandala 10
He is patient
He is presentable
He is principled 6
He is respectable
He is trust worthy
Humble person 20
known party history very well
Liked by many people 7
Military background 58
More known to delegates than other candidates
Not corrupted 13
Previous experience

31. Qn11. Please mention three things why that candidate is best to lead FDC
Why would you vote him
Mugisha Muntu
Nandala Mafabi
Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
Total
Promised to vote for him 18
Promotes principles and unity in the party 22
Ready to serve the party 3 6
Regional Balance 5 33 41
Respectful 1
Serious candidate 2 4
Shows More Maturity 21
Should be objective
Should Have a good heart
Stong pesonality 11 7 19
Take party to the next level 10
Talks to people on ground 13
491
246 31 60
828

32. DEMOGRAPHICS

33. Gender of Responds Frequency Percent Male 341 77% Female 104 23% Total
445
100%

34. Voting by Gender Mugisha Muntu Nandala Mafabi Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
Male
48%
26% 3%
22%
Female
51%
20%

35. Regional Distribution (4 regions)
Frequency
Percent
Central
108
24%
Eastern
129
29%
Northern 84
19%
Western
124
28%
Total
445
100%

36. Voting by Four Regions Mugisha Muntu Nandala Mafabi Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
Central
42%
27% 2%
30%
Eastern
37%
34% 4%
25%
Northern
63%
26% 5% 6%
Western
58%
13%

37. Regional Distribution (7 Regions)
Frequency
Percent
Central 88
20%
Mid Western 54
12%
North Central 47
11%
North Eastern 87
North Western 37 8%
South Eastern 42 9%
South Western 90
Total
445
100%

38. Voting by Seven Regions
Mugisha Muntu
Nandala Mafabi
Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
Central
44%
26% 1%
28%
Mid Western
54%
15% 4%
North Central
62%
21% 9%
North Eastern
29%
41% 6%
24%
North Western
65%
32% 0% 3%
South Eastern
55%
19%
South Western
16%

39. Voting By Sub-Regions Mugisha Muntu Nandala Mafabi Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
Acholi Sub-Region
50%
25%
10%
15%
Ankole Sub-Region
61%
14% 2%
24%
Bukedi Sub-Region
35% 9%
22%
Bunyoro Sub-Region
79% 5% 0%
16%
Busoga Sub-Region
53%
21%
26%
Central
42%
27%
30%
Elgon Sub-Region
51% 3%
31%
Kigezi Sub-Region
33%
57%
Lango Sub-Region
74%
17% 4%
Karamoja Sub-Region
64%
18%
Teso Sub-Region
44% 6%
19%
Toro Sub-Region
58%
West Nile Sub-Region
65%
32%

40. Age Group of Respondents
Frequency
Percent 6 1% 65
15%
101
23%
151
34% 80
18% 42 9%
Total
445
100%

41. Voting by Age Group of Respondents
Mugisha Muntu
Nandala Mafabi
Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
67%
33% 0%
51%
28% 5%
17%
54%
25% 4%
46% 2%
24%
50%
20%
26%
38%
19%
43%

42. Voting by Level of Education
Mugisha Muntu
Nandala Mafabi
Geoffrey Ekanya
Not decided
None
25% 0%
50%
Primary School
35%
29%
Secondary School
48%
32%
20%
High School
46% 8%
College/University
52%
22% 3%
Post graduate
60%
16% 4%
Adult Education
100%

43. Comparison of September and October Presidential Poll

44. Overall responses in September and October
Overall Percentage
Sept
Oct
Mugisha Muntu
47%
49%
Nandala Mafabi
26%
25%
Geoffrey Ekanya 1% 3%
Not Decided
27%
23%

45. Comparison of responses by regions
Central
Eastern
Northern
Western
Overall
Sept
Oct
Mugisha Muntu
47%
42%
45%
37%
44%
63%
51%
58%
49%
Nandala Mafabi
29%
27%
34%
22%
26%
18%
13%
25%
Geoffrey Ekanya 0% 2% 4% 5% 1% 3%
Not Decided
30%
19% 6%
31%
23%

46. Comparison of responses by regions

47. Comparison by Gender Male Female Overall Sept Oct Mugisha Muntu 48%
46%
51%
47%
49%
Nandala Mafabi
26%
25%
20%
Geoffrey Ekanya 1% 3% 0%
Not Decided
22%
29%
27%
23%

48. Comparison by Age group of respondents)
Refused
Overall
Sept
Oct
Mugisha Muntu
33%
67%
56%
51%
55%
54%
39%
46%
52%
50%
45%
38%
17% 0%
47%
49%
Nandala Mafabi
22%
28%
19%
25%
18%
20%
26%
Geoffrey Ekanya 5% 4% 2% 1% 3%
Not Decided
27%
21%
24%
30%
37%
43%
23%