1. Summary of NASA LWS TR&T Focus Team: “Predict Emergence of Solar Active Regions Before they are Visible”

2. Goals and measures of success: The goal of this Focused Science Topic is to develop, test, and refine techniques for the detection of active regions before they are visible, the exploration of techniques to determine whether preemergent or newly emerged active regions will grow and become flare-productive, and to explore how such knowledge could be incorporated into downstream predictive models of the outer corona and heliosphere. The prime measure of success for this work will be to demonstrate a statistically significant ability to predict the location of new active regions before they are visible on the surface of the Sun and also their evolution.

3. The Team = everyone funded under this focus topic
MSU: PI Stein, Nordlund, Georgobiani, Schaffenberger, Benson
Stanford: Science PI Kosovichev, Scherrer, Zhao
CoRA Near-side team: PI Birch, Braun, Leka, Barnes, Crouch, Werne, & Lindsey
CoRA Far-side team: PI Lindsey
NSO: PI Hill, Gonzalez-Hernandez, Komm, Burtseva

5. Summary of Yesterday’s Meeting
Irene: Calibrating Far-Side images
Rudi: Vertical flows in emerging active regions
Olga: Time-distance of an emerging active region
KD: Target selection, preparing data sets to test prediction methods
Graham: Discriminant analysis (Statistical
Bob: Progress on simulations
Junwei: Time-distance far-side imaging. Time-distance emerging AR.
Sasha: “Compare inversions results, not travel-times”
Charlie: Plans & motivation for modeling the interaction of waves with a magnetic flux tube
Doug: estimate of travel-time shift from a rising flux tube

6. rising flux tube properties (Slide from Doug)
thin flux tube calculations (Fan & Gong 2000)
two days before emergence:
depth z ~ 60 Mm
speed vr ~ 150 m/s
let diameter ~ fz (f ≤ 1 !)
travel-time perturbation
time s
rms of single corr. ≥10 s
can get N~100 correlations (maybe); error of mean ≥ 1s
direct detection of vr (probably) unlikely, but…? va
vr (rise speed)

7. We can use your help:
If you have an idea for detecting active regions …

8. Web Site: http://www.cora.nwra.com/LWSPredictEmergence
Presentations from yesterday will appear there soon