1. Sea-Level Rise and Flood Resilience Planning:
Why Data Are More Important than Models
(and, by the way, I’m a Modeler)
Dr. Jason M. Evans – Stetson University
Florida Planning and Zoning Association – Suncoast Chapter
June 6, 2019
Key West, FL

2. A few SE Atlantic communities planning for sea-level rise

3. Local Government Context
Local governments in the coastal zone are right at the front line of trying to understand, plan for, and pay for future flood management in a time of climate change

4. Yes, the sea is rising…
Trend of approximately 9 inches over 100 years

5. Yes, the sea is rising…
Trend of approximately 13.5 inches over 100 years

6. And not just in Monroe County…
Trend of approximately 8 inches over 100 years

7. And not just in Florida…
Trend of approximately 1 foot over 100 years

8. And not just in Florida…
Trend of approximately 1 foot over 100 years

9. And not just in Florida…
Trend of approximately 9 inches over 100 years

10. Global sea-level rise is already accelerating and projected to accelerate more

11. Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Scenarios

12. ECF Regional Resiliency Action Plan Recommended Bounds for Planning for Sea Level Rise Daytona Beach Shores Tidal Gauge
Upper bound
Lower bound
The ECFRPC worked with stakeholders from Brevard and Volusia Counties to develop a regional resilience action plan. As part of this effort, a regional approach to planning for sea level rise much like the south Florida regional climate compact.
The action plan will be recommending a range approach with a lower and upper bound for assessments.
The project team will be assessing the impacts associated with both the USACE High projection curve and the newest NOAA high projection.

13. Tell me which scenario is going to happen!!!
A reasonable question for a scientist to be asked…
Tell me which scenario is going to happen!!!

15. The scientific bottom line from tide gauges is…
that the sea is rising…
but they don’t (yet) tell us much about 2100

16. Future SLR is inherently linked to future greenhouse gas emission trajectories

17. For coastal governments, it’s best to plan for risk tolerance rather than a fixed SLR

18. General Timeline of Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Built Environment
Stormwater drainage issues
and wastewater infiltration
Tidal flooding of yards and roads
Tidal flooding of ancillary structures (pavilions, sheds, etc.)
Ground floor tidal flooding of houses and commercial buildings
Tidal flooding of high value critical infrastructure such as wastewater facilities and electrical substations

20. Stormwater mapping is interesting…
When the neighbors ask, “are you here to relocate the...
CROCODILE!!!”

22. Satellite Beach, FL

23. Figure by Emily Niederman Stetson University (Class of 2017)xx
Figure by Emily Niederman
Stetson University (Class of 2017)

24. Stormwater Data

25. May 2011 – December 2015

26. Indian River Lagoon, Water Height, NAVD88 FT
Year
Indian River Lagoon, Water Height, NAVD88 FT
With Army Corps High Sea Level Rise
Mean Water Level
Seasonal High Water
Annual High Water
2015
-0.54
0.46
0.88
2040
0.31
1.31
1.73
2070
1.94
2.94
3.36
2100
4.24
5.24
5.66

27. Stormwater Inventory Base
City of Satellite Beach, Florida

28. Stormwater Tidewater Inflow Assessment
2015 Water Levels
Mean Water Level =
Tidewater in pipe at least
½ of the year
Seasonal High Water = Tidewater in pipe for
~ 1 month
Annual High Water =
Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 day

29. Stormwater Tidewater Inflow Assessment
2040 Water Levels
Mean Water Level =
Tidewater in pipe at least
½ of the year
Seasonal High Water = Tidewater in pipe for
~ 1 month
Annual High Water =
Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 day

30. Stormwater Tidewater Inflow Assessment
2070 Water Levels
Mean Water Level =
Tidewater in pipe at least
½ of the year
Seasonal High Water = Tidewater in pipe for
~ 1 month
Annual High Water =
Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 day

31. Problems with flood-mapping FEMA regulatory 100-year flood zone

32. 100-Year Depth Grid Using HAZUS-MH software (A FEMA Product!)
Feet Above Ground

33. Problems with flood-mapping FEMA regulatory 100-year flood zone Satellite Beach, FL

34. 100-Year Depth Grid Using FEMA HAZUS-MH software Satellite Beach, FL

35. Satellite Beach Fire Station
Site-level flood assessment requested by city officials in July 2017

36. Nothing pictured is currently in a flood zone

37. LIDAR Elevations with survey control points and OPUS GPS

38. HAZUS results (current sea level)

39. When presenting to Satellite Beach City Council

40. Satellite Beach Fire Chief had just returned from Harvey response in Houston…

41. Alternative fire station site…

42. Alternative fire station site…

44. New Smyrna Beach, FL

45. HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood (Current)

46. Facilities Assessment
THE GOOD NEWS: No assessed facilities show SLR inundation vulnerability until 2070, and these 2070 vulnerabilities are only under the NOAA Extreme scenario
Two essential public facilities showed vulnerability under the current HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood model:
Fire station 1400 State Road 44
Fire station # E 3rd Ave
Five health facilities and five schools also show current vulnerability under the HAZUS Coastal Flood model

47. Fire Station #50 1400 SR 44 (Not located in the FEMA 100-Year Floodplain)

48. Fire Station #50 1400 SR 44 HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood Model Projects ~2’ of Flood Depth

49. Fire Station #52 500 E 3rd Ave (Not located in the FEMA 100-Year Floodplain)

50. Fire Station #52 500 E 3rd Ave HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood Model Projects ~4’ of Flood Depth

51. Recommendations from New Smyrna Beach Vulnerability Assessment
Develop site-level assessments for critical infrastructure and essential facilities that HAZUS identifies as having potential vulnerability to a 100-Year Coastal Flood event Integrate sea-level rise scenarios into future updates of the City’s Stormwater Master Plan and roadway improvement projects Consider development of Adaptation Action Areas within built areas of the City at-risk from 2’ or less of sea-level rise (which is approximately the bounds of the 2040 NOAA Extreme SLR scenario)

52. Questions?
Jason Evans, PhD Faculty Director and Associate Professor Institute for Water and Environmental Resilience Stetson University