1. A51 Parish Councils’ Meeting A51 Study Update
Duddon Village Hall, CW6 0HD
7:30 pm Wednesday 12th June 2019
A51 Study Update
Philip Cox
Chief Executive
Cheshire and Warrington Local Enterprise Partnership

2. Economic Context
A £30bn economy with an ambition to be a £50bn economy by 2040
2.6% average annual GVA growth compared to 2.1% in the UK and 1.9% in NW
Highest GVA per head of northern LEPs and 5th highest of all LEPs – £32,529
£34.63 produced per hour worked – 4.1% higher than UK and 13.6% higher than the NW but falling over time and still not back to pre crisis levels
Economy and productivity section – gives overall picture of C&W economy, looking at overall GVA, GVA per head and GVA per hour; looks at trends and growth
C&W is a strong economy contributing £30bn to the UK economy
It has grown at a higher rate between 2011 and 2016 at 2.6% per year, compared to 2.1% in the UK and 1.9% in the NW
It has ambitions to be a £50bn economy by 2040
It has high GVA per head of £32,529 which is the highest of all northern LEPs and the fifth highest LEP in England
GVA per head is 22.2% higher than the UK average and 37% higher than the NW average
There has also been high GVA per head growth – 2.2% compared to 1.3% in UK and 1.4% in NW
Also highly productive producing £34.63 per hour – 4.1% higher than UK and 13.6% higher than NW
Productivity declined during the financial crisis and hasn’t recovered
Decreasing productivity may be caused by growth in the number of hours worked growing at a faster rate than GVA, job growth in low productivity/wage sectors, and higher growth in part-time jobs

3. Economic Context Manufacturing is the largest sector by GVA at £7.4bn
Super strengths (high productivity, specialisation and jobs) in petroleum, chemicals & pharma and motor vehicles
Almost 46% employed in public services and retail and hospitality. High employment in services and manufacturing
Good supply chain links signalled through tiers one & two and final product firms located in the region
Sectors – looks at C&W sectors by number of jobs, GVA, specialisation and productivity
There are a high number of jobs in public services, retail and hospitality – almost 46% of total jobs
There are also a high number of jobs in services – professional, scientific and technical activities; admin and support; finance and insurance
Manufacturing is the 5th highest sector by number of jobs. It is also the largest sector by GVA - £7.4bn
We have identified super strengths in C&W – high productivity, highly specialised, high number of jobs, in one or more of C&W’s key sectors
These include the manufacture of petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals and the manufacture of motor vehicles
There are also good supply chain links with connections between tiers one and two and final product firms, alongside logistics and warehousing.

4. Local Policy Context

5. Spatial Priorities
LINKING JOBS TO HOMES AND CENTRES OF POPULATION GROWTH
And our analysis of housing locations as part of the SEP shows a similar pattern to that of jobs.
But with significantly lower growth in the Science Corridor.
So to be sustainable, our transport strategy therefore needs to ensure effective access by all modes to/from the Science Corridor.
Connecting jobs to noteworthy population growth, and national opportunity from HS2 and HS3.
Over-coming existing gaps in our rail, public transport, and local sustainable networks.

6. Transport Challenges
1) Accommodating development growth 2) Congestion on strategic routes 3) Sub regional movement 4) Cross boundary movement 5) Rural connectivity 6) Dominance of car for mode share 7) Low bus use 8) Modernising local rail services 9) Increasing levels of cycling and walking 10) Digital connectivity

7. Strategic Highway Priorities

8. Transport Strategy
Long-List of Proposals for Studies and Business Case Development

9. Prioritising and Making the Case
Schemes requiring Government funding require a robust business case
DfT process based on Treasury 5-case model:
Strategic
Economic
Financial
Delivery
Commercial
The more expensive the scheme, the more detail is required
Early stages of business case development typically cost £100,000 to £150,000
Schemes will need the support of TfN (and Highways England, where appropriate)
Schemes follow the Gateway process as shown in next slide

10. Gateway Process
Gate 0 – Strategic assessment
Gate 1 – Business justification
Gate 2 – Delivery strategy
Gate 3 – Investment decision
Gate 4 – Readiness for service
Gate 5 – Operations review and benefits evaluation
Strategic Outline Business Case
Gateway Review Decision Point
Identify the range of options for addressing a particular problem, and selection of a preferred scheme
Outline Business Case
Gateway Review Decision Point
Programme Entry
Detailed work on assessing the costs, benefits and deliverability of the most favourable scheme options
Full Business Case
Gateway Review Decision Point
Full Approval
Confirmation of the scheme value for money once the contractor procurement process has been undertaken
Scheme Construction
Once schemes achieve Programme Entry funding becomes available from DfT

11. Making the Case for the A51
A51 is a key strategic route linking the M6 to the A55 (and onward to Holyhead)
Proposed by DfT to be part of the Major Road Network (and hence can access Government funds for that network)
Recognised by TfN as a strategic route and a priority for upgrading, albeit in the longer-term
Identified as important route in the Sub-regional Transport Strategy
A51 is in the short-list of studies being considered

12. Developing the Studies/Business Cases
Currently does not have funding for studies/business case development but does identify the A51 as a priority albeit for longer term delivery
Does not have any funding available to support studies/business case development which is not on the Strategic Route Network
LEP Board has allocated £400,000 per year for 3 years to support development of schemes which:
Support the Strategic Economic Plan and emerging Local Industrial Strategy
Have a good chance of securing Government/3rd party funding for delivery
Offer value for money
Are deliverable within a reasonable timeframe
Looking for match funding from Local Authorities
Decisions to be taken by LEP Strategy Committee in July

13. Coverage of a Feasibility Study
Purpose
Identify issues to be addressed
Consider range of potential solutions to address issues
Assess economic and other benefits and dis-benefits of each option
Consider full range of options from traffic management/weight restrictions through local bypasses to strategic dual carriageway
Identify potential funding sources for delivery of solutions
Assess timescale for delivery of solutions
Identify options for taking forward to SOBC
Stakeholder Group
Involved throughout the process
Help identify issues and solutions

14. Summary
The LEP is looking to prioritise a series of studies by the Summer
Feasibility study is required for A51 to assess and prioritise options, which can then be fed into the development of a Strategic Outline Business Case
A51 Parish Councils Group would be invited to be on the Stakeholder Group together with TfN and Highways England
Feasibility study would consider all options from on-highway to new bypass(es)
A51 is part of the MRN and therefore has potential to attract DfT funding to deliver solution
A51 is listed by TfN and the LEP as a priority
Issue is not if there should be a study but when it should be undertaken in relation to other potential priorities