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Model uncertainties because of inconsistencies of emissions

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Presentation on theme: "Model uncertainties because of inconsistencies of emissions"— Presentation transcript:

1 Model uncertainties because of inconsistencies of emissions
Ilia Ilyin EMEP/MSC-E Проверить название 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005 EMEP/MSC-E

2 Comparison with measurements: current state of the art (Pb, 2000)
Official emission used Air concentrations Concentrations in precipitation Underestimation of measured values ~3 times! EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

3 Possible reasons of the underestimation: 1) Monitoring uncertainties
2) Model uncertainties 3) Emission uncertainties EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

4 Model uncertainty: < 50%
Model uncertainties Intrinsic model uncertainty, % (example for lead) Intrinsic uncertainty: uncertainty of the model itself Model uncertainty: < 50% EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

5 Model experiment: maximization of Pb air concentrations
Unrealistic model formulation: Pollutant is locked within lower 800 m No dry deposition These assumptions should lead to the highest concentrations in air EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

6 Results of the experiment (Pb, 2000):
Air concentrations Original formulation Unrealistic formulation Still not enough emission..... EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

7 Numerical experiments
Numerical experiments. Experiment 2: Monitoring-based evaluation of depositions of Pb Measurement sites (2000) Measurements only: model excluded ~50 reliable stations Average Wet Dep Flux 1.2 kg/km2/y Area of EMEP countries: 11.3 mln km2 Total wet deps ~14 kt Anthrop. emission 11 kt ? For other years, and for Cd: similar situation EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

8 Concentrations in precipitation
Official emission, Pb, 2000 Anthropogenic emission: 11 kt Concentrations in air Concentrations in precipitation EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

9 Concentrations in precipitation
The use of elevated emission, Pb, 2000 Total : 39 kt (~3.5 times ) Official emission 11 kt Additional emission 28 kt Concentrations in air Concentrations in precipitation EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

10 Optimization procedure for constructing emission scenarios
Air concentrations Measurement data at EMEP sites C i , i = 1, 18 Initial emissions E j , j = 1, 47 Input data Contributions of jth source to air concentration at ith station A i,j objective function Simplified formulation: Deviation from measurements Change of emissions -influence factor aj – unknown coefficients EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

11 Emission changes due to optimization procedure
Average change: ~ twice (in previous test – 3.5 times) Range: times EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

12 Various estimates of emission uncertainties
Pb Cd UBA/TNO, 1997 Fac Denmark, 2004 290% 230% This exercise Fac 2 (average) Fac (range) EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

13 Comparison of modified emissions with official data
EMEP region U K Italy EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

14 Comparison with observations, Pb, 2000
Concentrations in air Official emission Modified emission EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

15 Concentrations in precipitation
Comparison with observations, Pb, 2000 Concentrations in precipitation Official emission Modified emission 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

16 official emissions modified emissions
Monitoring-modelling approach: modified fields of pollution levels (Pb, 2000) Pb depositions official emissions Pb depositions modified emissions EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

17 2. Emissions of HMs seem to be significantly underestimated.
Conclusions 1. Emission is one of the main sources of uncertainty of the modelling results 2. Emissions of HMs seem to be significantly underestimated. 3. Proposed approach to refine emission data based on optimization scheme allowed finding better agreement between modelling and measurement results. 4. Complex monitoring-modelling approach can be applied for evaluation of the pollution levels EMEP/MSC-E 6th TFMM meeting, Zagreb, April, 2005

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