1. IMPACT AND EFFECTIVENESS OF URBAN PLANNING ON CITY SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT
A Case of Tanzania Secondary Cities
Good morning to all.
My name…
Share with you an ongoing Study looking into the
Impact & Effectiveness of Urban Planning on City Spatial Development
Chyi-Yun Huang, World Bank
Dr. Ally Namangaya, PhD, Ardhi University
MaryGrace Weber, World Bank
Isabel D. Cantada, World Bank

2. Outline of Discussion Background Context Overview of the Study
Initial Findings
Status of the Study

3. I. Background Context
Tanzania is urbanizing rapidly but in a resource constrained environment
For those that may be unfamiliar with Tanzania:
Tanzania is the sixth fastest growing country in Sub-Saharan Africa
It is urbanizing rapidly - the population increased at an average rate of 5.4% per annum from 2004 to 2013.
Expect to be 50% urbanized in s.
But with a relatively low level of GDP per capita; and there are 800,000 new job seekers entering the market every year in Tanzania
Its urban transition is at a critical point.

4. 1 7 30 I. Background Context Tanzania’s urban system Primate City
Dar es Salaam
4.4 million (2012 Census)
Medium-sized cities
(population > 250,000)
Arusha, Dodoma, Mbeya, Morogoro, Mwanza, Tanga, Zanzibar Town
Small cities and towns 7
It has a predominant Primate City
System of cities 30

5. State of cities I. Background Context 70% informality
Low level of servicing
Development on hazard lands
The country faces many of the typical urban challenges such as:
Level of productivity in Tanzanian cities is low by global standards.
Low levels of infrastructure per person coupled with inadequate basic services constrains potential economic benefits of urbanization
Informality, traffic congestion,
encroachment & development in fragile/hazardous areas.
Tanzania is the most flood-affected country in East Africa: City governments are underprepared to meet the challenges of increased vulnerability to climate related hazards.
While the costs are unknown, flooding presents a significant economic burden on municipalities and households.
A survey of six Tanzanian cities found that all experience flooding impacts on an annual basis, yet none quantify damages and losses nor have any budget set aside for response or recovery.
Informal economy
Encroachment of ROW
Congestion

6. Many large cities had plans… I. Background Context
Approved Master Plans (X indicates prepared in year; yellow highlighting indicates the decade was at least partially covered by a Master Plan)
City
None (inc. drafts)
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
Mwanza City Council X *
Arusha City Council
Dodoma Municipal Council
Mbeya City Council
Morogoro Municipal Council
Tanga City Council
Tabora Municipal Council
Kigoma-Ujiji Municipal Council
Sumbawanga Municipal Council
Songea Municipal Council
Moshi Municipal Council
Geita Town Council
Shinyanga Municipal Council
Iringa Municipal Council
Singida Municipal Council
Musoma Municipal Council
Njombe Town Council
Bukoba Municipal Council
Kibaha Town Council
Mtwara Municipal Council
Mpanda Town Council
Babati Town Council
Lindi Municipal Council
Korogwe Town Council
Bariadi Town Council
As planners, we wonder were there plans developed to guide the urbanization?
Yes – many large cities had them, although the smaller ones did not.
Arusha, 1985
Mbeya, 1985
Dodoma, 1976
Tanga, 1984
Limited implementation of the plans that did exist in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

7. So what did we miss? II. Study
Impact and Effectiveness of Urban Planning on City Spatial Development in Tanzania Cities (“Study”)
Study Objectives
Supplement general lack of data and study of secondary cities in Tanzania
To enhance the urban development agenda and inform policies and development strategies of cities in Tanzania.
Aims to investigate the spatial development characteristics of cities with and without urban plans, and attempt to assess the impact and effectiveness of such plans.
Targets 7 secondary cities, namely: Arusha, Dodoma, Kigoma, Mbeya, Mtwara, Mwanza and Tanga
So for these large cities that had plans, to what extent have the plans impacted/are effective (or ineffective) in guiding spatial development?
Hence, we embarked on this study.
Purpose:
Investigate spatial development characteristics
Identify shortcomings, constraints and successes
Determine most effective implementation measures within Tanzanian context
Advise policy and institutional reform
Inform World Bank interventions
Disseminate lessons and best practices in order to build capacity

8. A collaborative study with strong local partnership and grounding
II. Study
A collaborative study with strong local partnership and grounding
Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development
President’s Office – Regional Administration and Local Government
European Space Agency

9. Phase 1: Background Review and Research
II. Study
Scope and Phasing
Establish context
Rapid profiling of TSCP and ULGSP cities
Determine case cities and study area
Setting up Study premise and data collection
Phase 1: Background Review and Research
Provide background context and description of urban development and growth
Investigate: (1) urban form and city development; and (2) effectiveness in the implementation of urban plans
Phase 2: Development of Case Studies and Detailed Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Selected Cities
Consolidate analysis, key findings and recommendations as Final Report
Final workshop with client and key stakeholders
Phase 3: Consolidate Findings & Recommendations; Present final report to client and key stakeholders

10. Diversion from proposed land uses
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha City
1985 Master Plan
2015 Actual Land Use
Diversion from proposed land uses
The scope of study first includes a comparison of the old Master Plan, versus actual land use.
And both at the master plan level…
Source: Satellite Image; ESA, WB / Ardhi Team Interpreted Land Cover Using Open Source Satellites and LGRCIS

11. Diversion from proposed land uses
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha City
Diversion from proposed land uses
The scope of study first includes a comparison of the old Master Plan, versus actual land use.
And both at the master plan level…
Source: Satellite Image; ESA, WB / Ardhi Team Interpreted Land Cover Using Open Source Satellites and LGRCIS

12. Diversion from proposed land uses
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha City
1997 Detailed Area Plan
2015 Actual Land Use
Diversion from proposed land uses
As well as detailed plan level
S/N
Use
Standard
Actual size 2015
Magnitude change
% of total
Acres % 1.
Residential
60%
260.65
35%
152.54
-24.89% 2.
Open spaces
10%
43.44 1%
4.30
-9.01%
-39.14 3.
Social facilities
45%
193.36
34.51%
149.92 4.
Roads
20%
86.88
19%
84.24
-0.61%
-2.64
Total
100%
434.42
Source: Satellite Image; ESA, WB / Ardhi Team Interpreted Land Cover Using Open Source Satellites and LGRCIS

13. Diversion from proposed land uses
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha City
Diversion from proposed land uses
Comparison of actual land use with standards
Where we observed that there is a large conformity in terms of the planned and actual land uses.
It was also interesting to note the divergence between what the planning standards prescribed, versus what’s actually on the ground.
(eg. resi, open space, and social facilities)
S/N
Use
Standard
Actual size 2015
Magnitude change
% of total
Acres % 1.
Residential
60%
260.65
35%
152.54
-24.89% 2.
Open spaces
10%
43.44 1%
4.30
-9.01%
-39.14 3.
Social facilities
45%
193.36
34.51%
149.92 4.
Roads
20%
86.88
19%
84.24
-0.61%
-2.64
Total
100%
434.42
Source: Satellite Image; ESA, WB / Ardhi Team Interpreted Land Cover Using Open Source Satellites and LGRCIS

14. III. Preliminary Spatial Findings Arusha City – Urban Extent Growth
We are studying:
Extent of urban growth
Rate and type of urban extension
Texture of growth (fragmented/continuous)
Development of Core City vs Peri-urban area
Land cover distribution and changes
Transport and other services
Planned vs unplanned areas
In addition, we are looking at the overall urban extent growth patterns,
And both within a Core urban area and a Peri-Urban Area.

15. Pronounced Scattering
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha City – Urban Extent Growth
We are studying:
Extent of urban growth
Rate and type of urban extension
Texture of growth (fragmented/continuous)
Development of Core City vs Peri-urban area
Land cover distribution and changes
Transport and other services
Planned vs unplanned areas
Pronounced Scattering
Linear Strip
Developments
Leapfrog Islands
And including aspects like…
I wont go into the details at this point, as we’re still working on the analysis.
But to give you a flavor of what we’re observing…

16. The city is growing and expanding…
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha – Urban Extent Growth
The city is growing and expanding…
Taking the example of Arusha…
We see that the city is growing and expanding…
1988
2002
2012

17. And the rate of urban growth remains high in the last
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha – Urban Extent Growth
And the rate of urban growth remains high in the last
2 decades

18. But urban growths are becoming much more fragmented.
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha – Fragmentation Analysis
But urban growths are becoming much more fragmented.

19. Arusha – Land Cover Land Use Change
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha – Land Cover Land Use Change
We are also looking into the types of growth – for example, in terms of residential uses, are these densifying or just extending.
Urban Residential Densification was dominant in the Peri-Urban zone (with 76% of the total area)
whereas in the Core City area, Residential Extension was dominant (46% of the total area).
Urban residential densification: Changes from lower Resi density class into a higher Resi density class
Urban residential extension: all changes from Non-Urban Residential classes to a Residential class
Other urban land use extension: all changes from Non-Resi Urban classes to Other Urban and Non-Urban classes
Changes within natural and semi-natural areas: all changes in between the natural and semi-natural classes (eg. Forest into agri)
Residential densification is more dominant in peri-urban zone while extension was more dominant in Core City.

20. Arusha – Unplanned vs planned settlements
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha – Unplanned vs planned settlements
Unplanned areas continue to expand (much more than planned areas) in
Core Area
Another aspect is the growth of unplanned and planned areas.
Unplanned areas continue to dominate, and expand as compared to planned areas.
Unplanned to planned settlements
Decrease of unplanned settlements
Expansion of unplanned settlements
Expansion of planned settlements
No change in unplanned settlements
No change in planned settlements

21. Arusha – Transport Network
III. Preliminary Spatial Findings
Arusha – Transport Network
And also key infrastructure developments such as roads.
Little development in Trunk/Arterial Roads (barely increased), or Collector roads.
Some densification of local roads (mostly in the NW and SW past of the Core city)

22. Early Thoughts…
Not surprisingly, early Master Plans were hardly effective in guiding development, because…
Better results from Detailed Plans, reasons being?
But Detailed Plans only cover small areas, and diverge greatly from planning standards.
Hence overall, cities are largely growing organically, although very much related to trunk infrastructure (structure) provided.
Even so, variations in how cities are developing are observed (eg. Dodoma Resi densify in center).
Reinforces need to:
(i) strategically plan and provide for trunk infrastructure according to planning intentions; (ii) expand coverage of Detailed Plans; (iii) revisit planning standards and their practicality, amongst others.
MPs ineffective because:
Government priorities may not be aligned, plans remain as paper docs
Limited financial resources/budgeting for implementation (compensation issues)
Competing interests (political intervention)
Detailed plans more effective because:
smaller, focused area + detailed guidance allow better control and enforcement
Greater ownership and willingness of community to come together (some detailed plans are initiated by communities/private sector)

23. Next Steps…
To refine spatial analysis and compile/compare findings across 7 cities.
To integrate key findings with ground realities/contextual info.
To propose policy recommendations to clients, could include:
Innovative approaches to planning and implementation in a resource constrained environment
Avenues for improving coordination
Sustainable financing options for plan implementation
Establish a realistic framework for development control and enforcement

24. Thank you Dr. Ally Namangaya, Ardhi University
MaryGrace Weber, World Bank
Isabel D. Cantada, World Bank
Thank you
Chyi-Yun HUANG
Senior Urban Specialist World Bank
@chyiyunhuang
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