1. Evaluating the Impacts of the Dar es Salaam BRT System
March 20, 2018
Team
Ronald Lwakatare, John Shauri, Ami Srivastava (DART)
Yonas Mchomvu, Bilal Siddiqi (World Bank)
Gharad Bryan, Clare Balboni (London School of Economics)
Melanie Morten (Stanford University)
Rachel Steinacher, Jessica Mahoney (IPA Tanzania)

2. We would like to know: does the Dar BRT…
Reduce travel times?
Improve safety and security of commuters?
Create jobs and boost income?
Encourage firm productivity, trade and growth?
Improve property values?
Increase the health, wealth and happiness of Dar residents – especially the poor?
*3ie reasoning and expectations behind this slide Expectation:
3ie expects the research and implementation teams to make efforts to understand the context and associated complexities that may affect the roll-out of the intervention/programme/policy and/or the evaluation, as well as those that may affect the use of the results for policy and programmatic decision-making at the end of the evaluation.
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*Guidance on presentation:
Duration: 1 minutes
Suggested presenter: IA representative
Content:
This slide is to help the audience understand the setting and complexity of the issue to be addressed.
Use the context description to bring out the issue and situate it by providing details focused on the following factors as relevant:
Political details, including political priorities and , decision-making processes, and political and policy realities that contribute to the need for the intervention and/or the study.
Economic details, including current income levels, major income-generating activities, poverty levels and distribution
Social and cultural details, human capital, social capital, and social divisions (such as ethnicity, religion/sect, caste),
Structural details, including power, inequity, and vulnerability (such as gender)
Suggestion: A map or picture may help the audience better understand the location of the intervention

3. Our evaluation approach aims to…
…estimate the impacts of BRT Phase 1
Understand how the BRT has affected the lives and welfare of residents
As well as the impacts on urban neighborhoods, development and growth
… and understand the mechanisms through which impacts happen
e.g. through improved urban mobility? Relocation of people/firms? Rapid urban development?
…while laying the groundwork to evaluate future phases
Groundwork for phases 2, 3, 4 already underway
Don’t want to reinvent the wheel for future evaluations!
…and providing information relevant for other contexts
Should inform BRTs planned in other African cities, elsewhere in the world

4. We use a combination of methods
Spatial “triple-differences” approach
Compare places (i) near and far from Phase 1 with places (ii) near and far from planned Phase 2, (iii) before and after Phase 1.
Mechanism experiments: Access to Transport
Fare subsidy to encourage urban poor to use BRT – impacts of improved transport
Location subsidy to encourage residents to live near the BRT – impacts on spatial relocation and local urban development
Structural modeling to estimate general equilibrium impacts
Mechanism experiments will produce key elasticities for model
Allow findings to be applied to other contexts

6. Data collection (Jan 2016 – now)
Dense geographical sampling strategy ensures coverage inside and outside catchment areas of Phase BRT routes at varying radii
Two rounds of surveys following households (Jan 2016, Sep 2017)
Mobile tracking survey to get high frequency data on key outcomes

7. Initial findings
Before BRT, Dar commuters faced high financial and time costs
BRT has improved mobility and satisfaction with public transport
32% of survey respondents used the BRT in the last week
Increased satisfaction with public transport along Phase 1 corridor
Urban poor and vulnerable face access constraints
BRT riders are less poor, younger, and more likely to be male
Rents have increased rapidly along the Phase 1 corridor
Individuals living in Phase 1 corridor face higher transport costs

9. Initial findings
Before BRT, Dar commuters faced high financial and time costs
BRT has improved mobility and satisfaction with public transport
32% of survey respondents used the BRT in the last week
Increased satisfaction with public transport along Phase 1 corridor
Urban poor and vulnerable face access constraints
BRT riders are less poor, younger, and more likely to be male
Rents have increased rapidly along the Phase 1 corridor
Individuals living in Phase 1 corridor face higher transport costs

12. Initial findings
Before BRT, Dar commuters faced high financial and time costs
BRT has improved mobility and satisfaction with public transport
32% of survey respondents used the BRT in the last week
Increased satisfaction with public transport along Phase 1 corridor
Urban poor and vulnerable face access constraints
BRT riders are less poor, younger, male, vehicle owners
Rents have increased rapidly along the Phase 1 corridor
Individuals living in Phase 1 corridor face higher transport costs

14. Next steps: Improve Access to Transport
Partner with DART and Tanzania Social Action Fund (TASAF) to test two programs to improve access to transport
Fare subsidy: offset the cost of BRT fare for those unable to afford it
Poor commuters provided free smartcard
Location subsidy: offset the rising cost of living near BRT
Poor households offered cash if they choose to live within 1km of BRT
Impact evaluation through randomized controlled trial
Recipients randomly assigned to subsidy, UCT, or control
Allow us to estimate impact of (i) better transport and (ii) rising rents/COL
Implications for policies on fare pricing, affordable housing, zoning regulations, transit-oriented development

15. Next steps: Improve Women’s Safety and Security in Public Transport
New IE under development aims to:
Document nature and extent of sexual harassment and GBV experienced by women in their daily commute
Estimate BRT’s impact on reducing GBV in women’s daily commute
Test scalable interventions designed to mitigate GBV
E.g. separate queues, information campaigns, bus driver training
Estimate economic consequences of GBV for women’s mobility and occupational choice