1. SMALL (and simple) Is USEFUL
Simple Models as aids for Higher Level Military Decision Making
21st ISMOR
Moshe Sharvit
Thinkware Ltd.
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2. Examples of H.L. Issues Force structure
Relating operational means to strategic ends
Force sizing
Acquisition of major w/s
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3. Main Points
“Interacting with DM” and “The use and abuse of simple models” – not mutually exclusive
Simple models have some important uses as aids to H.L. decision making
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4. The “socio-analytic” situation
Analytic community
Analyst DM
Problem
Model
Methodology in general and models in particular are functions not only of the problem at hand but also of the DM and the “organizational culture” within which the analysis is conducted.
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5. The “socio-analytic” situation
Analytic community
Analyst DM
Problem
Model
Methodology in general and models in particular are functions not only of the problem at hand but also of the DM and the “organizational culture” within which the analysis is conducted.
“Organizational culture”
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6. Problem Characteristics
Squishy; ill defined problems
Undefined goals – no clear “objective function”
Complex relation of operational means to strategic goals
Uncertainty – cannot be reduced to a probability distribution
Multi-criteria
“Soft” criteria - unquantifiable
Paucity of reliable data
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7. Implications What is it all about? Optimization is rarely sought
Robustness is of the essence
Value judgments
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8. Perceptions of Analyst’s Expertise
Technical Expert*
Systems analysis expert
*e.g.: munitions effectiveness, search theory, logistics etc.
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9. Analyst & DM: Domains of Expertise
Technical expert vis-à-vis the DM – Little or no overlap - analyst possesses “professional authority”
Sys. Analyst vis-à-vis the DM - Significant overlap. Interaction: not authority but Persuasion in this case
Analyst’s parlance, models and other tools of trade should be communicable to non-members of the analytic community
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10. The Analyst’s Role & the Complexity of Models
Opaque vs. Transparent models
Complex, mathematically sophisticated models tend to place the Analyst in the “Surrogate DM” position
Disregard of soft, unquantifiable variables leads to the “bean-counter” trap
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11. “Utilization Success” (Goeller) Main uses of Simple Models
Problem formulation
Generation of alternatives
Estimation of consequences
Rejection of alternatives
Selection of preferred alternative
Promotion of preferred alternative
Implementation
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12. In Conclusion
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”.
Albert Einstein
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13. The End
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14. Problem formulation: The Role of the Model (after E. Quade)
Provide a depiction of reality
Provide a perspective of reality
At the higher operational and strategic levels it is difficult to achieve a reasonably accurate depiction of reality using quantitative models
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15. Model needs to be relevant to a variety of particular situations
Model need not encompass the whole issue; elucidate an aspect of the problem
Model needs to be relevant to a variety of particular situations
“validation by consent”
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16. Problem formulation: Uses of simple models
Gain understanding through:
identification of system elements
identification of interplays and interdependencies (synergy, etc.)
Outline basic dilemmas
An aid to the establishment of criteria
Outline basic alternatives
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17. Example - Countering SSM’s: Interception & counter-attack
Impacts
c.a. only
No response
Int. only
Vertical axis – number of warhead impacts in own territory per day;
White graph – assuming no response; constant enemy effort.
Yellow graph – assuming interception only;
Pink – counter attack, no interception (showing delayed effect);
Green – combined effect.
c.a. + int.
Time
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18. Some issues raised Mix proportions
Temporal differences: early period vs. later period
# of interceptors
Operational (systemic) effect of each weapon system mop
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19. Rejection of alternatives Example: replacement of old weapon systems
Limited budgets but plenty of w/s acquisition opportunities.
To pass the test the candidate w/s needs to have a decisive overall advantage over the incumbent w/s otherwise
There is probably a better opportunity
A simple model may provide a bound on cost/effectiveness ratios
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20. An example: Selection of Fighter A/C
Cost (LCC): f1 /f2 = approx. 2
Effectiveness: f1 selected if either:
f1 has unique, extremely important, capabilities; or
f1 clearly outperforms f2 in almost every major category by at least 2:1.
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