1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Grundy County Fair
Grundy Center, Iowa
July 20, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
14,540
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,701
Imports
160 36 32 60 40
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,392
16,281
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,200
5,500
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,225
5,275
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,367
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,900
2,050
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,692
14,200
Ending Stocks
2,081
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
3.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
46.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,929
3,880
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
350
Imports 41 72 33 25 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,145
4,260
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890
1,925
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
109
125
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,795
1,920
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,794
3,970
Ending Stocks
290
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
9.05
9.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soy Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn Crop Conditions Sum of Good to Excellent Ratings
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Crop Conditions
Sum of Good to Excellent Ratings
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Early Corn Yield Estimate

9. Early Soy Yield Estimate

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

13. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

18. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Ethanol Stocks

21. Current Corn Futures
3.56
3.28
Source: CME Group, 7/19/2016

22. Current Soybean Futures
9.73
9.00
Source: CME Group, 7/19/2016

23. 2015/16 Crop Margins

24. 2016/17 Crop Margins

25. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: