1. 2019 Market Outlook
Slide 1: 2019 Market Outlook
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3. 2018 Recap Strong start to 2018 after a year of very little volatility
Conflict with North Korea heated up
February brought 1000 pt drops in Dow & 12% loss in 2 weeks
Markets made a comeback and saw 6 months of steadiness & strength
The fall brought a return to volatility likely as a result of:
Kavanaugh Supreme Court Hearings
Midterm elections
FANG stocks underperformed
Trade War with China
Government Shutdown
Global Growth Slowed
A good way to sum up 2018 is to quote Dickens: “It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.”
We saw a strong start to 2018 after a year of little volatility
However, conflict with North Korea began to heat up in early spring
And February saw two 1,000-point drops in Dow & 12% loss in 2 weeks
Markets came back, though, and we saw 6 months of steadiness and strength
The fall saw a return to volatility, likely as a result of:
Bitter Kavanaugh hearings
Midterm elections
Underperformance by FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) stocks
Trade war with China
Government shutdown
Global growth slowed
2018 also reinforced why fundamentals and discipline matter

4. 2019 Outlook Economy stays strong NO recession
Turmoil & Gridlock continue
U.S. Equities: Anticipate +8 – 12%
Volatility back to normal levels
Bond Rates stay low
Inflation remains tame
Bond Yields rise modestly
Now, let’s make some educated guesses about 2019:
Economy stays strong – look for 3% GDP growth to continue
Unemployment is low and there are no signs of recession
Washington, DC, will be non-­‐stop source of political turmoil and gridlock – which Wall Street likes (since the more rancor, the less chance the current rules change!)
With U.S. equities, look for a return of 8%-12% on S&P 500, as volatility moves back to normal levels
Bond rates are expected to stay low
With inflation in check, at worst, the Fed might possibly raise rates once in 2019
Bond yields will rise modestly

5. What Now?
So, what now?

6. Get back to the basics! Focus on what you can control Stay disciplined
Avoid Gimmicks
MOST IMPORTANTLY – DIVERSIFY!
It’s time to get back to the fundamentals in 2019:
Focus on what you can control
Stay disciplined
Avoid gimmicks and don’t let emotions drive investment decisions
Most importantly – DIVERSIFY!
Harry Markowitz, the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, famously called diversification “the only free lunch in finance.” Consider enhancements to your allocation outside of stocks and mutual funds – and always keep reading and learning!
Remember, stick with your plan, stay diversified, and rely on your trusted financial advisor to help get through the challenging times while staying on your path towards meeting your investment goals
Thank you. I would now be happy to take your questions.