1. Reflections on Regime Change
Some Conclusions:
Reflections on Regime Change

2. What have you learned?
Numerous facets of how political systems operate:
‘Input’ factors:
Parties
Interest groups
Civil society
Political Culture
Constitutions and political institutions
Parliaments
Political Executives
Bureaucracy
Policy-processes

3. Regime Change & How It Occurs
Broader problematique:
Transitions from authoritarianism to liberal democracies
sometimes
Because of internal factors, e.g.
inability of regime to deliver what it has promised
Internal revolt, overthrow
Sometimes because of invasion and total defeat
Postwar Germany
Postwar Italy
Postwar Japan

4. Imposing regime change:
Possible in Germany, Japan & Italy because
Occupier was in firm control
Regimes in question were definitively defeated
Political forces were strictly channeled
Some prohibited or kept in opposition
Postwar Italy and Japan as one-party dominant states
Reconstructed regimes integrated into
Broader alliances
Western economies
No other alternatives available or politically possible

5. Building and consolidating liberal democracy
Requires
Some minimal agreement on institutions, form of government – contingent consent
Recognition that the new regime is “the only game in town”
A political and economic situation in which key groups support or tolerate the new regime
A civil society and political culture in which
Citizens & groups feel that they can participate
Differences and oppositions are tolerated
The regime is regarded as legitimate

6. Will this fit post-invasion Iraq?
Relatively educated population, but isolated
Likely resentment against the US, west in Iraq, Arab countries, Muslim world
Problems of a plural society – artificial construct
Kurds, in the north
Shia majority, in the south
Inexperience… but possible tutelage
Contingent consent, but among whom?

7. Problems: What incentives will there be to sustain democratic rule?
What incentives or motives will make individuals or groups want to overturn
Importance of context, especially what is happening in neighboring countries

8. Final exam
Thursday, April 24th
9:00-11:00 A.M.
SN2036