1. Avoiding Bad Decisions – And Indecision When Action is Warranted

2. Everything Begins With Questions and a Choice
Example
What do I want? Why do I want it? How will I achieve it?"

3. You as Manager in the “Decisional” Role
Informational and interpersonal are the other two. (Mintzberg)
Problems/challenges arise constantly; it’s tempting to ignore or defer finding answers
What makes decision-making difficult?

4. General Styles of Decision Making
Logical – perhaps rank options using a scale
Subjective – feelings/instincts
Speak to others - seek advice from trusted others

5. What’s Your Decision Making Style?
Write down two important decisions you have made over the last few years.  1. 2.
Think about how you made each of these decisions.  What models and styles did you  use?  Did you start with one method and then switch to another? 
Write down how your ”process” worked for the each decision. Did you get what you wanted?  How well has the decision held up over  time? 
If you didn’t feel you made the right decision, how did the method fail you?

6. Characteristics of Managerial Decisions

7. Lack of Structure Non programmed decisions Programmed decisions
Decisions encountered and made before, having objectively correct answers
solvable by using simple rules, policies, or numerical computations.
Non programmed decisions
New, novel, complex decisions having no proven answers.

8. Comparison of Types of Decisions

9. Uncertainty and Risk Certainty Uncertainty
The state that exists when decision makers have accurate and comprehensive information.
Uncertainty
The state that exists when decision makers have insufficient information.

10. Uncertainty and Risk
Risk
The state that exists when the probability of success is less than 100 percent and losses may occur.

11. Conflict Conflict 2 levels psychological conflict (“mental pressure”)
--layoff or hire decisions, for example
--implications for company that are immediately uncomfortable
--nothing looks good
of conflict between individuals or groups/depts.

12. The Stages of Decision Making A Formal Schema
Generating alternative solutions
Evaluating alternative solutions
Making the choice
Implementing the decision
Evaluating the decision
Identifying and diagnosing the problem

13. Identifying and Diagnosing the Problem
Typically, a manager realizes some discrepancy between the current state (the way things are) and a desired state (the way things ought to be).

14. Generating Alternative Solutions
Ready-made solutions
Ideas that have been seen or tried before
Custom-made solutions
New, creative solutions designed specifically for the problem

15. Evaluating Alternatives
Decide what solution will likely work best.
Contingency plans
Alternative courses of action that can be implemented based on how the future unfolds.

16. A decision realizing the best possible outcome
Making the Choice
Maximizing
A decision realizing the best possible outcome

17. Making the Choice Satisficing Optimizing
Choosing an option that is acceptable, although not necessarily the best or perfect…a combo of “satisfying and suffice”
Optimizing
Achieving the best possible balance among several goals

18. Implementing the Decision: Manager as “Do-er”
Determine how things will look when the decision is fully operational.
Order the steps necessary to achieve a fully operational decision.
List the resources and activities required to perform each step.
Estimate the time needed for each step.
Assign responsibility for each step to specific individuals.

19. Implementing the Decision
Monitor, or control, along the way.
Assess for problems, opportunities, etc.

20. Evaluating the Decision
Positive feedback suggests the decision is working; continue, apply elsewhere if needed.
Negative feedback means that either (1) implementation will require more time, resources, effort, or thought or (2) the decision was a bad one

21. The Best Decision Vigilance vig·i·lance [ˈvijələns] NOUN
A process in which a decision maker carefully executes all stages of decision making
vig·i·lance
[ˈvijələns]
NOUN
the action or state of keeping careful watch for possible danger or difficulties.

22. Barriers to Decision Making
Psychological biases (control)
Time pressure
Social realities

23. Pros and Cons of Using a Group to Make Decisions

24. Potential Problems of Using a Group
Groupthink
A phenomenon that occurs in decision making when group members avoid disagreement as they strive for consensus
Goal displacement
A condition that occurs when a decision-making group loses sight of its original goal and a new, less important goal emerges.

25. Goal Displacement

26. Managing Group Decision Making

27. Constructive Conflict
Cognitive conflict
Issue-based differences in perspectives or judgments.
Affective conflict
Emotional disagreement directed toward other people.
Example: occurs when feelings and emotions of 2 or more people are incompatible. For example, a boy tells a girl that he loves her, but she tells him that she just considers him as a friend.

28. Constructive Conflict
Devil’s advocate
A person who has the job of criticizing ideas to ensure that their downsides are fully explored.
Dialectic
A structured debate comparing two conflicting courses of action.

29. Encouraging Creativity
Creation
Synthesis
Modification
bring a new thing into being ( creation )
join two previously unrelated things (synthesis)
improve something or give it a new application ( modification ).

30. Brainstorming Brainstorming
A process in which group members generate as many ideas about a problem as they can; criticism is withheld until all ideas have been proposed.

31. Models of Organizational Decision Processes
Coalitional model
Model of organizational decision making in which groups with differing preferences use power and negotiation to influence decisions.
Garbage can model
Model of organizational decision making depicting a chaotic process and seemingly random decisions.

32. Elements of a Crisis Plan
“OODA” Observe- Orient – Decide- Act

33. Decision Making in a Crisis
What kinds of crises could your company face?
Can your company detect a crisis in its early stages?
How will it manage a crisis if one occurs?
How can it benefit from a crisis after it has passed?