1. US-DPRK NEXT STEPS WORKSHOP January 27, 2003 Washington DC
Session 2 – Dismantlement and Cessation of DPRK Nuclear Capacities
Living with Uncertainty
Elwood Gift

2. LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY
After we have a North Korean Declaration on their uranium enrichment program

3. Should we be content? What does the Declaration consist of?
Enrichment facilities only?
Mining, conversion, and uranium storage facilities included?
Centrifuge and component facilities included?
Nuclear material produced?
Do we have access?
Inventory in Declaration?
Can its completeness be verified?
Production records?
Records of imports and their disposition?

4. Can the Declaration be confirmed?
What are the inspectors rights of access?
How often?
With or without prior notice?
How many persons?
How intrusive can they be?
Sampling and analysis rights?
Is the Declaration complete enough for meaningful production analysis?

5. What are the goals? A nuclear weapons free North Korea?
A nuclear (uranium) production free North Korea?
Probably not a nuclear free North Korea?
Is facility dismantlement a goal?
How much confidence do we need?

6. Can we find an undeclared gas centrifuge enrichment facility?
What is its production capacity?
Possibly 25 kg HEU/year
What are the observables?
Power requirement: < 200 Kw
Natural uranium requirement: About 5500 KgU/year, about 4 30B UF6 cylinders per year
Size of building: < a Safeway grocery store
Is it underground?: Probably
Emissions: Virtually none