1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Oct. 4, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
Δ2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.6
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
52.8
1.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,411
4,693
107
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438 8
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,735
5,156
116
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,070 10
Seed & Residual
122
146
112
137 1
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,130
2,060
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,289
4,268 12
Ending Stocks
888
103
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.35
8.60
-0.30
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 2 2

3. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
181.3
3.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,827
241
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
138
Imports 67 57 40 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,937
17,017
453
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,312
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,600
5,650 25
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,460
1,480
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,425
2,400
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,897
15,105
125
Ending Stocks
1,912
228
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.40
3.50
-0.10
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 3 3

4. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. USDA Objective Soy Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

8. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9. USDA Objective Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

21. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

22. Current Soybean Futures
9.19
8.56
Source: CME Group, 10/3/2018

23. Current Corn Futures
4.01
3.67
Source: CME Group, 10/3/2018

24. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

25. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

26. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

27. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: