1. J. Cofala, Z. Klimont, F. Wagner, M. Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
National scenarios for the NEC revision State of play as of End January 2006

2. National scenarios provided for the NEC review
Country
Energy
Agriculture
AUSTRIA
Yes
ITALY
BELGIUM No
LATVIA
CYPRUS
LITHUANIA
CZECH REP.
LUXEMBOURG
DENMARK
MALTA
ESTONIA
NETHERLANDS
FINLAND
POLAND
FRANCE
PORTUGAL
GERMANY
SLOVAKIA
GREECE
SLOVENIA
HUNGARY
SPAIN
IRELAND
SWEDEN UK
Total 18 16

3. National NEC vs CAFE energy projections for 2020 [PJ]

4. National NEC vs CAFE energy projections for 2020 [PJ]

5. National NEC vs CAFE energy projections for 2020 [PJ]
*) Incomplete data

6. CO2 projections for 2012 (1) relative to 1990

7. CO2 projections for 2012 (2) relative to 1990
*) preliminary incomplete estimate

8. CO2 projections for 2020 Implied emissions of NEC national scenario vs National reports to UNFCCC 2005
*) preliminary incomplete estimate

9. Comparison of agricultural activity projections

10. Comparison of agricultural activity projections

11. Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2015 (relative to 1990, using GAINS emission factors)

12. Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2010 (relative to 1990, using adjusted emission factors)

13. Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2015 (relative to 1990, using adjusted emission factors)

14. Conclusions
Due to lack of documentation of underlying assumptions in national reports for UNFCCC system, difficult to diagnose their consistency with national submissions for NEC
Situation seems better for agriculture than for energy
Comparison with PRIMES projections not yet completed
How to proceed?