1. Business will be business: Latin America and the Middle East
Dr. Guilherme Casarões
IRI-USP
June 2019

2. Latin America’s Middle East policies
Assumption 1: given that Latin American countries have no direct interest in Middle Eastern geopolitics, they avoid taking sides in the region’s controversial issues
Assumption 2: among the driving forces for Latin America’s Middle East policies are (1) relations with US; (2) demand for oil; (3) diplomatic traditions; (4) interest groups

3. Drivers of LatAm’s Middle East policies
System-level
National-level
Bureaucracy-level
Society-level
Global orientation
Pro-US
Pro-Third World (BRA, MEX, ARG)
Economic pragmatism
Diplomatic traditions
Non-intervention
Peaceful settlement of disputes
Interest groups
Diaspora communities
Issue-specific lobbying

4. Stages of LatAm’s Middle East policies
: LatAm’s ME policies shaped by Cold War disputes
: search for even-handedness (pro-US)
: Arab demands split LatAm positions
: LatAm adopts a ‘normal’ approach to Middle Eastern geopolitics
: positions seconded Washington’s
: positions distanced from Washington’s
: Arab spring turmoil + Trump’s geopolitics

5. 1947-1973: search for even-handedness
LatAm strong multilateral engagement:
UNGA Res 181 (1947, “Partition of Palestine”)
12 in favor (VEN, GUA, UGY, BRA), 1 against (CUB), 6 abstentions (ARG, CHI, COL, MEX)
UNGA Res 194 (1948, “Refugees”)
13 in favor, 1 against (CUB), 6 abstentions
UNGA Res 273 (1949, “Status of Israel”)
18 in favor, 2 abstentions (BRA, ELS)
Between 1950s and 1960s, pro-Israeli positions under a balanced rhetoric (except for Cuba)
UNSC Res 242 (“Six-Day War”): LatAm proposal of Israeli withdrawal from “all the occupied territories” replaced by British milder text

6. : LatAm splits
By 1974, Latin America did not correspond to more than 13 percent of UN membership (down from 40 percent in 1945)
Yom Kippur War: pragmatic siding with Arab countries (and the Palestinian cause)
Brazil became the second LatAm nation to host a PLO Information Officein followed by Argentina (1976), Mexico (1976), and Chile (1979)
UN Res 3379 (‘Zionism equals Racism’) highly divisive
Yes: BRA, MEX, CUB, GUY, GRE
No: Caribbean + UGY  Israeli Development Aid Policies
Abstain: ARG, BOL, CHI, COL, ECU, GUA, PAR, PER, VEN
Left-leaning Nicaragua and Cuba break off with Israel (1973, 1979) and recognize Palestine in 1988

7. 1990-2003: normalization of relations
Factors that led to LatAm’s change of position:
The end of the Cold War and the rise of a unipolar order
LatAm’s transition towards democracy and marked-oriented economies
The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process (Madrid and Oslo)
All Latin America (except Cuba) votes for revoking UNGA Res 3379 (through Res 46/86, dec/1991)
Brazil’s Collor de Mello and Argentina’s Carlos Menem lead the initiative
LatAm establishes diplomatic ties with the Palestinian National Authority
Chile (1992), Brazil (1993), Mexico (1995), Argentina and Colombia (1996), Peru (1998)

8. 2003-13: standing up for Palestine
As many left-wing presidents came to power in the ‘pink tide’, LatAm foreign policies for the Middle East changed considerably
South-South cooperation as the main element of regional engagement
Autonomy vis à vis the US
Mideast geopolitics begin engaging new actors (Iran, Palestine)
Direct involvement in the Palestinian question: LatAm participates in the Annapolis (2007) and Sharm el-Sheikh (2009) conferences
Brazil affirms itself as an ‘emerging donor’ in Palestine, Syria (via IBSA)
Chile launches ‘Program of Medical Cooperation’ with Palestine
Venezuela (2009), Bolivia (2009), and Nicaragua (2010) break diplomatic ties with Israel after the Gaza war
Wave of regional recognition of Palestine
VEN (2009), BRA (2010), followed by ARG, BOL, ECU (2010), CHI, GUY, PER, UGY, SUR, ELS, HON (2011), Central American ( ), COL (2018)

9. Israel loses ground among traditional allies
Costa Rica moves its embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv in August 2006, and El Salvador immediately follows suit
In February 2008, Costa Rica becomes the third country to officially recognize Palestinian sovereignty (20 years after Cuba and Nicaragua)
Dominican president Leonel Fernández and Costa Rica’s Oscar Arias launch the Conference for Middle East Peace (2011) in San José
Most LatAm countries in favor of UNGA Res 67/19 (2012)

10. 2013-2019: crisis at home and abroad
Crisis in the Middle East
Syrian Civil War ( )
New geopolitical axis (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey)
Deadlock in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations
LatAm moves away from Middle Eastern geopolitics
Trade with GCC countries (oil, commodities)
Cooler relations with Iran (greater sanctions after 2011)
PNA demands lose traction as Hamas intensifies control over Gaza
Trump’s election ushers in a new phase of pro-Israel positions
Netanyahu’s LatAm tour in 2017 (ARG+PAR, COL, MEX)
Trump’s embassy move controversy (2017): GUA, PAR, BRA

11. Fundação Getulio Vargas (EAESP-FGV)
Dr. Guilherme Casarões
Fundação Getulio Vargas (EAESP-FGV)
@Gcasaroes on Twitter