1. Iran and P5+1 agreement, where do we go from here?
Presentation at:
Canadian Society
of Iranian Engineers and Architects
October 7, 2015
Mehdi Sarram, PE

2. Agenda
What is enriched uranium and what percentage is needed for research and power reactors and for nuclear weapons?
Brief history of Iran's nuclear program from 1955 to 2015
Why was Iran's case referred to UNSC in 2006?
Was Iran in violation of NPT in 2006?
What are Iran's commitments under the signed July 14 agreement with P5+1?

3. Cont What are the P5+1 commitments?
Is this agreement good for the peace of the world?
What is the role of IAEA and how are Iran's nuclear facilities inspected?
Also a brief discussion on the book: “Nuclear Lies, Deceptions and Hypocrisies

4. What is enriched uranium and what percentage is needed for a research reactor and for nuclear weapons?
Natural uranium: 0.7% U 235, rest is U 238,…
Enriching uranium used to be done by large diffusion plants (US used them for the Hiroshima bomb)
More recently, centrifuge machines are used for enriching uranium
Nuclear power plants for electricity need 3-5% uranium

5. Cont
Nuclear research reactors in 60s used 90+% uranium, more recently use 20% uranium
Nuclear weapons use 90+% uranium
Pu 239 can be produced from U 238 in a reactor
U n -> U-239 -> Np-239 -> Pu-239

6. Cont US has used weapons both from Pu 239 and U 235 in Japan
Centrifuge machines simply spin the UF6 gas inside
U 238 is slightly heavier and gets attracted to the outside vs U 235 stay closer to center
Then U 235 is separated and fed to more machines until the desired enrichment is achieved
IAEA criteria for inspectors: SQ for U 235: 25Kg, for Pu 239: 8 Kg

7. Iran nuclear program, 1955-1979, 1/3
US Government Atom for Peace Program -President Eisenhower, 1950s
1957: US and Iran sign a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement as part of the US Atoms for Peace program
1957: The Institute of Nuclear Science, under the auspices of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), moves from Baghdad to Tehran
The Shah shows personal interest in peaceful nuclear energy
The Shah’s policy on nuclear energy was peaceful, no desire or ambition to pursue nuclear weapons
Iran had strong military; no threat by neighbors 7

8. Iran nuclear program, 1955-1979, 2/3
1959: The Shah orders establishment of Tehran University Nuclear Center-TUNC
1960: Iran purchases a 5 MW research reactor from US-AMF, Tehran University Research Reactor (TURR), now TRR/center of controversy?
Turkey and Pakistan purchase same identical reactor package
Sept 1967, at Tehran Mehrabad International airport, a team of TUNC staff under my supervision received Kg of HEU (>90% enriched) and a small Po-Be neutron source shipped from the US under INFCIRC 66/Rev 2 (NPT did not exist) 8

9. Iran nuclear program, 1955-1979, 3/3
5 MW reactor made critical on Nov 11, 1967 at 7:20 pm-full power of 5 MW reached 3 weeks later
July 1, 68: Iran signs NPT, Feb 2, 1970: Iran’s Parliament ratifies NPT
Iran among FIRST countries to sign/ratify NPT
Iran was in strict compliance with IAEA safeguards requirement, first under INFCIRC/226/Rev 2 and later under NPT (INFCIRC/153)
IAEA quite satisfied with routine inspection of TURR fuel and reactor operation
Iran starts a massive nuclear power program 23,000 MWe
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran established in early 1974, grew from a few people to few thousands and a budget of over $3B 9

10. New government, Feb 1979
AEOI goes into stand still mode, budget cuts, some staff leaving Iran
Feb 79: AEOI essentially shutdown, no major activity
Most nuclear staff came to US/Europe/Canada
Busher, 2x1200 MWe German plants partly damaged during the 8 year war
Darkhovain nuclear plants (2x900 MWe-French) construction stops, not as advanced as Busher site

11. Cont
Germany under US pressure told Iran it will not continue construction of Busher plants (Unit 1 nearly 85% complete)
Iran signed a $1B contract with Russia to complete construction of Busher nuclear plant, required design change, construction started in 1995, delays, VVER design
Germany under US pressure told Iran it will not continue construction of Busher plants (Unit 1 85% complete)
2 enrichment facilities, Natanz and Fordo

12. Why was Iran's case referred to UNSC in 2006?
Natanz enrichment facility started operation in 2005
IAEA Director General had visited Natanz in 2003
IAEA under political pressure had issued numerous reports on Iran regarding its enrichment program and nuclear facilities
Iran started negotiations on its nuclear enrichment program with EU for a few years but failed in 2007
Political pressure was increasing in the US and its allies

13. Cont Due to same pressure, IAEA referred Iran’s case to UNSC
UNSC Sanctions: 1696 on 2/4/06, 1737 on 12/23/06, 1747 on 3/24/07, 1803 on 3/13/08, 1835 on 9/27/08, 1929 on 6/19/10
Article 92 of UN Charter states such cases should be referred to International Court of Justice
The SC has neither the mandate to act an International Judicial Body

14. Cont
International law professor Daniel Joyner, who has written a book about the NPT, argues that "the IAEA applies incorrect standards, exceeds its legal mandate and is acting ultra vires with regard to Iran"
In 2006, was Iran’s nuclear program a threat to international peace and security?
So why was Iran’s case referred by the IAEA to UNSC in 2006?
UNSC can take action if a country is a threat to international peace and security

15. Was Iran in violation of NPT in 2006?
A complex legal question
Iran was not transparent to IAEA when it obtained the centrifuge technology from AQ Khan/Pakistan
Hence this can be considered a violation with respect to the NPT requirements
Iranian scientists developed about 200 centrifuge machines by 2006

16. Cont In 2015, this increased to 19,000, many advanced ones
The West claims Iran is in violation of its NPT commitments and Additional Protocol (AP) requirements regarding the enrichment program –hence UNSC sanctions
Iran clams its Parliament never ratified AP, hence it is ONLY required to report a nuclear facility (Natanz or Fordo) 180 days before the operation of facility
Fact: Iran on a volunteer basis signed AP in 2003 and after negotiation with EU failed, in 2007 Iran told IAEA it is withdrawing from AP

17. Cont
For 4 years Iran complied with the requirements of AP: reported to IAEA any conceptual design/construction of any nuclear facility immediately
So, it is the war of He said-She said between Iran and IAEA/West, the lawyers in Iran and the West disagree on the interpretation of AP/Code 3.1
As such, West/IAEA claims Iran’s enrichment facilities are in violation of NPT-AP
Iran rejects this claim
With UNSC sanctions, P5+1 won the legal battle
My own position

18. What are Iran’s commitments under JCPOA
Why the Senate opposition, agreement VS Treaty
Key parameters agreed on July 14, 2015
Agreement: 159 pages, UNSC Res 2231: 104 pages
Iran will reduce its centrifuges from 19,000 today to 6,104
All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation
Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years – concession by Iran

19. Cont
Iran has agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for15 years – concession by Iran
Note: Iran needs 3-5% fuel for its Busher plant and 20% fuel for the medical isotope research reactor-has neither
Iran has committed that under no circumstances it will seek or develop nuclear weapons
Iran’s breakout timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework

20. Cont
Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordo facility for at least 15 years
Iran will not have any fissile material at Fordo for 15 years, 1000 centrifuges remain but no enrichment
Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years
Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz
Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years
The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s facilities
Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance , IAEA seals and cameras

21. Cont
All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordo and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA
Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol, Code what does it mean?
Latest, Sept 27: Amano visited Parchin military site, sample taken and shipped to Vienna-IAEA happy and a second visit not needed
Iran has agreed to redesign Arak heavy water based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons grade plutonium
All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns

22. Cont
The original core of the reactor, which would have enabled the production of significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country
Iran will ship all of its spent fuel from the reactor out of the country for the reactor’s lifetime
Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments, IAEA and not P5+1 has the power regarding all verifications on Iran’s actions on JCPOA

23. What are the P5+1 commitments?
After IAEA reports its satisfaction with Iran implementing its commitments:
EU lifts its sanctions
US Senate lifts its sanctions, gradual subject to Senate approval
All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions
IAEA, on behalf of P5+1 will oversee and supervise the implementation of JCPOA in Iran in next years

24. Is this agreement good for the peace of the world?
I believe Iran and P5+1 agreement is good for the world peace
The US and P5 lost NOHING, just agreed not to impose more sanctions and release Iran’s own frozen assets
Iran lost financially, over $100B of its investments in enrichment facilities and other nuclear facilities, ARAK heavy water reactor, fuel manufacturing,….over the last 30 years
The claim by US and P5 that they made many concessions to Iran is not correct

25. Cont Money given back to Iran is Iran’s money, was frozen for years
Oct 5: A committee of Iran’s parliament gave its support to Iran’s nuclear agreement with world powers on condition there would be no foreign inspections of military sites and no curbs on developing its missile program

26. What is the role of IAEA and how are Iran's nuclear facilities inspected?
IAEA, the most important UN agency, has direct access to UNSC
Several hundred trained inspectors work and inspect NPT nation’s declared nuclear facilities
Inspectors do not inspect military sites, not permitted
Inspectors use special equipment to detect diversion of special nuclear materials
MUF: Material Unaccounted For (25 KG U235 or 8 Kg Pu 239)

27. Cont India, Pakistan, N. Korea and Israel are not NPT signatories
After implementation of JCPOA, Iran will be inspected more than many combined, resident inspectors, increased IAEA budget for Iran and state of the art technology for inspections
Iran has 17 declared nuclear facilities ready for IAEA inspections

28. Looking into the next 5-15 years
Implementation by Iran in early 2016
Not clear how Iran will get 20% fuel for its research reactor
The Iran deal is a non-binding agreement, not a TREATY like NPT or NAFTA—Did NOT need US Senate approval
Any country can withdraw anytime
I am optimistic this agreement will hold and all parties will abide by their commitments

29. My Book: Nuclear Lies, Deceptions and Hypocrisies
Dr. Hans Blix, the former Director General of IAEA has endorsed my book and 12 other senior experts
462 pages, discussing the lies and deceptions of 7 countries: Iraq, Syria, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India and the US in the last year
Available on publisher’s site at:
Also available on Amazon
Also available as eBook, Kindle, etc. for $3.99

31. University of Michigan 2 MW Ford Nuclear Reactor 1963

32. 5 MW TURR, September 1967

33. Nov 11, 1967, TURR First Criticality

34. April 10-14,1977 Persepolis Conference: Transfer of Nuclear Technology

35. April 10-14,1977 Persepolis Conference: Transfer of Nuclear Technology

36. Q&A-Nuclear Happy Face msarram@gmail.com