1. Outlook in Crop Markets for 2012
Linking Profitability and Soil Conservation
Lenox, Iowa
Feb. 8, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
Imports 14 8 28 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,501
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,600
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,650
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,655
Ending Stocks
846
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,286
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,615
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,275
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,011
Ending Stocks
275
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
11.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. 2011 Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

5. 2011 Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. South American Precipitation
Source: USDA-NASS & WAOB 8 8

9. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 2/7/2012

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

12. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Change of Export Pace

15. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2011
4.64
2012
4.86
2013
5.07
2014
5.29 15 15

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

17. Ethanol Blending Advantage

18. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

19. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

20. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

21. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

22. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

23. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

24. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

25. States with Room to Grow
Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

26. Iowa Crop Margins

28. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns
Supply/demand concerns
Worries about dry conditions in South America and in U.S.
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.20; Soy $11.70
Futures (as of 2/3/12): Corn $5.99; Soy $11.78
2012/13:
Futures (as of 2/3/12): Corn $5.64; Soy $11.93

29. Arable Land

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: