1. Update on Population Statistics Research Projects Jonny Tinsley, Population Statistics Research Unit psru@ons.gov.uk

2. Aims Update on research projects to improve population statistics Work collaboratively to ensure the research results and timeliness of method changes meet user needs Discussion of UK Statistics Authority assessment of migration statistics

3. Components of change For LAD Everytown Population100,000 Births1,290 Deaths-870 Movers from elsewhere in UK4,950 Movers to elsewhere in UK-4,950 Moves from overseas830 Moves to overseas-550 Net+700

4. Review of internal migration method

5. Basic method PR t1PR t2 LA 1 LA 2

6. Basic method 2 LA 1 LA 2 LA 3 40 60 HA 1 HA 2 120 48 72

7. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

9. PR LA 1 LA 2 Census

10. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

13. Problems inflating all moves within a HA

14. Interventions research How do we best adjust for classic lagged moves on the patient register ?: data linkage or by modelling How do we protect against lagged moves across the Census date?: linking Census with patient register How to we best account for the missed moves?: improve NHSCR use or switch to Personal Demographic Service data

15. Review of long-term international emigration method

16. Definition ONS use the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant: -a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence

17. IPS estimates of long-term emigration at regional level (2011)

19. IPS estimate of LA emigration (3 year average) Stepwise model Covariate 1 Covariate 2 Covariate i Covariate 3 Emigration model specification Constrain to regional total Model age/sex Final model used to estimate LA totals

20. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level Number of hostels (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-) Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) LA emigration estimates Annual Population Survey 2011 Census Migrant Worker Scan

21. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level Number of hostels (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-) Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) LA emigration estimates Annual Population Survey 2011 Census Migrant Worker Scan

22. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level Number of hostels (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-) Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) LA emigration estimates Annual Population Survey 2011 Census Migrant Worker Scan

23. Interventions research Reviewing the covariates – what is associated with emigration? but also giving weight to what is intuitive, and is likely to be sensitive to change (non-Census variables) Can admin sources available to ONS be used to distribute the regional IPS total more directly? If not, ensure the best data is used in the model to reassure there is no systematic bias in net flows

24. UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics 5 recommendations including Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time- lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings

25. Revisions and user engagement Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users Update revisions policy Publish minutes from decision making bodies Engage through a variety of channels, including online

26. Revisions implementation plan 2011 MYEs2012 MYEs2013 MYEs2014 MYEs2015 MYEs E EEER EEE E = existing methods, R = revised methods RRRRR June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 When

27. UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time- lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings

28. Quality assurance tools Population Quality Unit

29. Quality information tools planned Planned for release with mid-2013 Mid-year estimates Comparator tool Similar to 2011 Census tool – admin data and some demographic analysis (for example, fertility rates, sex ratios) Component effect visualisation tool Experimental Focussed on last decade initially

30. Help needed A group of people prepared to test and comment on tools as they are designed – work likely to be end of April/early May. Contact Neil.Park@ons.gov.uk or fill in section on evaluation form.Neil.Park@ons.gov.uk

31. For information Research paper on updated work on plausibility ranges 1 in the light of the 2011 Census to be published in Spring 1 Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method- quality/imps/latest-news/using-administrative-data-to-set-plausibility- ranges/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method- quality/imps/latest-news/using-administrative-data-to-set-plausibility- ranges/index.html Further work on statistical confidence intervals for mid-year estimates 2 being carried out 2 Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method- quality/imps/latest-news/uncertainty-in-la-mypes/index.htmlhttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method- quality/imps/latest-news/uncertainty-in-la-mypes/index.html