1. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre The British Household Panel Survey and its Scottish Extension Nick Buck Institute for Social and Economic Research University of Essex

2. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre The BHPS and longitudinal research BHPS supports a wide range of types of longitudinal research Analysis of gross (individual level) change – inflow and outflow measures (e.g. employment and family status) Inherently longitudinal phenomena (eg unstable employment, poverty persistence). Controlling for unobserved characteristics Causal inferences from temporal sequence – both short term and long term Relationships between attitudes, expectations, preferences and behaviour Analysis of quasi-experiments – impacts of policy

3. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre What is a Household Panel Study? Many types of longitudinal studies (e.g. cohort studies, individual level panels) Household panel studies involve repeated data collection about a panel of individuals They are distinctive in the context of their households, and usually interview all members of respondent households Follow individuals as they move between different households Short intervals between surveys, allows collection of continuous information Use Household panel where household context is important (e.g. demographics, income dynamics, employment participation) Collects information on changing household units

4. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre The development of Household Panel Studies Household Panel Studies have become the leading survey type for cross-national longitudinal research Began with Panel Study of Income Dynamics in USA - analysis of poverty persistence 1968 SOEP in Germany/ SEP in Netherlands 1984 BHPS in GB 1991 - widening agenda ECHP 1994 - cross national comparison (also CNEF) Understanding of transition countries (Hungary, Bosnia) Understanding of differences within nation states: East/West Germany, Scotland, Wales, NIHPS, NHPS

5. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre British Household Panel Survey Annual survey of members of initial sample of 5511 households interviewed in autumn 1991 Random sample representative of population of Great Britain (south of Caledonian canal) Follow sample members as they move and form new households Sample increased by births, new household members,... reduced by deaths, refusals, moves out of scope Low attrition means the BHPS is still representative

6. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre BHPS topics BHPS questionnaire consists of core questions repeated each year and variable components. Core questions cover the following areas: –Housing and consumption, neighbourhood characteristics –Household organisation, domestic work –Education and training –Labour market behaviour, current job, and annual job history –Health, limitation of activities, use of health services –Social and political values, social participation and networks –Income: current and annual measures, non-monetary indicators

7. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre Types of BHPS data Initial conditions / life histories Repeated annual measures Continuous history information (work, income, family) Irregular topics, collected from variable components (e.g. wealth, ageing etc.) Permits a range of different statistical methods, including panel repeated measures models and duration models. Data files contain weights for a range of analysis, imputation for item non-response, and a considerable number of derived variables.

8. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre Examples of Research Using BHPS Poverty and income dynamics / impacts of family change Welfare in old age and wealth accumulation over the life course Impacts of class or human capital on life chances Scarring effects of unemployment and poor quality jobs on later employment Impacts of life events on psychological well-being Choice between marriage and cohabitation Neighbourhood effects on social exclusion Sharing of political attitudes within the household Impacts of parental circumstances on child outcomes

9. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre BHPS Scottish Extension sample Extension sample, funded by ESRC, added in 1999 1500 households, added to 500 in original sample Includes Highlands and Islands New questions on national identity, attitudes to government structure Tends to follow BHPS variable component pattern (e.g. Wealth at Wave 2); Wave 3 contains life histories Four waves available very shortly, Funded up to wave 5; ESRC is currently considering funding up to Wave 10.

10. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre Rationale for Scottish extension Sample sizes large enough for independent analysis of panel research issues in Scotland Comparative analysis - in what ways is Scotland different from England? Wider impacts of structural differences in e.g. housing and labour markets Understanding impacts of changing governance of UK - impacts of diverging policy with Scottish Parliament. With ECHP/other comparative data - understanding of Scotland within European Union.

11. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre Early findings from the Scottish sample Collection of papers, originally presented at a conference organised by Scotecon, published later this year by Policy Press– e.g: Living arrangements of young people National identity and voting behaviour Gender wage gap Health and deprivation Pay mobility Teenage family life

12. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre Future prospects Scottish BHPS is still a relatively short panel, but soon able to exploit some of the advantages of longer panels: –Period and cohort differences (has devolution made a difference?) –Analysis of longer spells and sequences of spells (poverty exit or poverty churning) –Life course changes and impacts of earlier life events, –Intergenerational influences

13. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre Future data plans: variable components Wave 14 (2004) National identity, views of UK governance, additional health measures (SF36), and measures of work attitudes and work stress. Wave 15 (2005) Wealth, Assets and Debts – second measurement in Scotland Wave 16 (2006) Ageing, retirement, health, and quality of life Wave 17 (2007) Children and parenting, non-resident parents, aspirations of young people Wave 18 (2008) Neighbourhood, expectations of relationships and marriage in the future

14. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre Other issues for the future Sample size, re-sampling Representation of migrants to the population Linkage to contextual data – neighbourhoods, organisations (e.g. school, workplace) – how do we dal with disclosure risks? Linkage to individual administrative data New agendas for data collection e.g. health measurement, crime and victimisation New methods of data collection (e.g. web-surveys)

15. ESRC UK Longitudinal Studies Centre More information Documentation, including lists of publications based on BHPS available at http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/ulsc/bhpshttp://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/ulsc/bhps Also provides information on BHPS user group Data from Economic and Social Data Service (Data Archive) http://www.esds.ac.uk One day BHPS training course in Edinburgh on 29 March (via http://datalib.ed.ac.uk)