1. Improving Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using Scatterometer Surface Winds in Model Initialization
Shuyi S. Chen1
Wei Zhao1, Ralph Foster2, W. Timothy Liu3
1Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
University of Miami
2Applied Physics Lab., University of Washington
3Jet Propulsion Lab., California Institute of Technology
NASA/NOAA CIOSS workshop, 8-10 February 2005, Miami, FL

2. OBJECTIVES
To develop initialization method for high-resolution hurricane research and future prediction model (e.g., WRF) using scatterometer winds.

4. TRMM TMI

6. NCEP

8. Sensitivity to Initial Vortex Structure

10. Hurricane Bonnie, 1200 UTC August 1998

11. MM5 simulated rain rate, 1800 UTC 23 August 1998
Control
Symmetrized

12. MM5 simulated rain rate, 1800 UTC 25 August 1998
Control
Symmetrized

13. Initialization Method
Construct 3-D vortex using QuikSCAT winds
Generate dynamically/thermodynamically balanced initial vortex using 4DVar
QSCAT
winds
UW inverse
PBL model
SLP
(swath)
Blend with NCEP SLP
gradient winds
Weighted vertical
Distribution of wind
4DVar
3-D
Winds
QSACT
Balanced vortex
(temp, ght, wind)
BestTrack minSLP
Prediction model (WRF, MM5)

16. Hurricane Floyd, 12-17 September 1999

17. Hurricane Floyd

19. Isabel

20. SeaWinds
Fabian
Isabel
Isabel
Fabian

22. Hurricane Fabian (2003) Full Partial Aug 30 0000 UTC 1200 31 Sep 01 0204 05 06 SW
0135
1359
(SW)
0110
1334
0225
1450
1424
0251
1515
SW 0225
SW 1450 QS
0901
2125
(QS)
0835
2059
2213
0924
2148
2303
2236
0946
Full
Partial

24. Conclusions
Improved high spatial resolution (12.5 km) QuikSCAT data provides a better description of tropical cyclone surface wind, especially near the inner core.
Initial vortex based on the QuikSCAT derived SLP and wind has a positive impact on hurricane intensity forecast.
Tandem missions could provide more than doubled coverage for hurricane prediction than a single QuikSCAT or SeaWind mission.