Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Forecasting the Weather

Published byUlrik Laursen Modified over 5 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Forecasting the Weather"— Presentation transcript:

1 Forecasting the Weather
Tom Robinson

2 Steps to Forecasting Past Present Future

3 Past Satellites http://www.weather.gov/sat_tab.php?image=ir
Previous Model Runs Looking back on forecasts

4 Date High Low Wind Precip

5 Current Weather Observations php?metarIds=KBRO&hoursStr=past+60+hours &std_trans=translated&num_metars=number&s ubmit_metars=Retrieve Model initialization Radar

6 Model Forecasts Equations of the Atmosphere Step through time
Time steps based on distance scale GFS – 27km horizontal, 64 layers NAM – 12km horizontal, 60 layers

7 Ensembles ST/COM_US/web_js/html/mean_surface_prs.ht ml 21 models combined Mean Spread ST/COM_US/web_js/html/mean_surface_prs.ht ml Spaghetti ST/COM_US/web_js/html/spag_t2m.html Probability ST/COM_US/web_js/html/prob_t2m.html

8 Model Output Statistics (MOS)
2 years of data Model bias accounted for How to read MOS Actual MOS (KBRO) bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KBRO

Download ppt "Forecasting the Weather"

Similar presentations

How do meteorologists make weather observations? Measuring the Weather.

How do meteorologists make weather observations? Measuring the Weather.
PRESENTS: FORECASTING FOR OPERATIONS AND DESIGN February 16 th 2011 – Aberdeen.

PRESENTS: FORECASTING FOR OPERATIONS AND DESIGN February 16 th 2011 – Aberdeen.
Chapter 9: Weather Forecasting Acquisition of weather information Acquisition of weather information Weather forecasting tools Weather forecasting tools.

Chapter 9: Weather Forecasting Acquisition of weather information Acquisition of weather information Weather forecasting tools Weather forecasting tools.
Challenges in data assimilation for ‘high resolution’ numerical weather prediction (NWP) Today’s observations + uncertainty information Today’s forecast.

Challenges in data assimilation for ‘high resolution’ numerical weather prediction (NWP) Today’s observations + uncertainty information Today’s forecast.
Brownsville, TX Forecast September 27, 2010. Where is Brownsville? 8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-

Brownsville, TX Forecast September 27, Where is Brownsville? 8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-
Seattle, WA 2-7-11. Where is Seattle? Satellite xloop.cgi?ir_common+/48h/3h Satellite shows one system.

Seattle, WA Where is Seattle? Satellite xloop.cgi?ir_common+/48h/3h Satellite shows one system.
Forecast Presentations Tom Robinson. Presenting Use a bright background and dark lettering Speak loudly (yell if necessary) Do not say “here”. Here is.

Forecast Presentations Tom Robinson. Presenting Use a bright background and dark lettering Speak loudly (yell if necessary) Do not say “here”. Here is.
Weather Forecasting – The Traditional Approach Pine cones open and close according to air humidity. An open pine cone means dry weather. Ash leaf before.

Weather Forecasting – The Traditional Approach Pine cones open and close according to air humidity. An open pine cone means dry weather. Ash leaf before.
Statistics, data, and deterministic models NRCSE.

Statistics, data, and deterministic models NRCSE.
Supplemental Topic Weather Analysis and Forecasting.

Supplemental Topic Weather Analysis and Forecasting.
Brownsville, TX Forecast October 4, 2010. Scores.

Brownsville, TX Forecast October 4, Scores.
Advances in High Resolution Regional Weather Modeling Mike Leuthold University of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

Advances in High Resolution Regional Weather Modeling Mike Leuthold University of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
00 UTC 18 Dec Runs 204 h forecast of 540 DM height valid 12 UTC 26 Dec.

00 UTC 18 Dec Runs 204 h forecast of 540 DM height valid 12 UTC 26 Dec.
Using Ensembles. CHAOS The idea that a system is very sensitive to the initial conditions – small changes to the initial state end up being big differences.

Using Ensembles. CHAOS The idea that a system is very sensitive to the initial conditions – small changes to the initial state end up being big differences.
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.
Weather Forecasting - II. Review The forecasting of weather by high-speed computers is known as numerical weather prediction. Mathematical models that.

Weather Forecasting - II. Review The forecasting of weather by high-speed computers is known as numerical weather prediction. Mathematical models that.
Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 9 April 2013)

Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 9 April 2013)
Using Short Range Ensemble Model Data in National Fire Weather Outlooks Sarah J. Taylor David Bright, Greg Carbin, Phillip Bothwell NWS/Storm Prediction.

Using Short Range Ensemble Model Data in National Fire Weather Outlooks Sarah J. Taylor David Bright, Greg Carbin, Phillip Bothwell NWS/Storm Prediction.
By Hunter E.. How to be a Meteorologist? Meteorologist is a scientist who forecast the weather. You need to have an advanced degree for becoming a meteorologist.

By Hunter E.. How to be a Meteorologist? Meteorologist is a scientist who forecast the weather. You need to have an advanced degree for becoming a meteorologist.
Henry Fuelberg Nick Heath Sean Freeman FSU WRF-Chem During SEAC 4 RS.

Henry Fuelberg Nick Heath Sean Freeman FSU WRF-Chem During SEAC 4 RS.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google