1. Lawrie Phipps

2. Planning for complexity and change
Changing the learning landscape
Planning for complexity and change
A brief introduction to Scenario Thinking
Strategic planning tool used to make flexible long-term plans
The method is based on creating a series of ‘different futures’ generated from a combination of known factors, such as demographics, with plausible alternative political, economic, social, technical, legal and environmental (PESTLE) trends which are key driving forces.

3. Scenario Process Scoping the issue Trends analysis Building Scenarios
Creating options
Testing the options
Decisions
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4. Scenario Process Scoping the issue Trends analysis Building Scenarios
Creating options
Testing the options
Decisions
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5. Scenario Stage One Pestle trends Issue Context
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7. Generating Ideas
Blue ideas. Normal ideas, standard procedures – these don’t require a separate workshop/activity to come up with these
Red ideas. Original, innovative but realistic in ambition
Yellow ideas. Very creative and inventive but not yet feasible
Image – COCD Ideas Matrix
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8. Stage Two Scenario One Scenario Two New Service Scenario Four
Scenario Three
Scenario Four
New Service
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9. JISC Organisational Development & Transformations Programme
Lawrie Phipps 
JISC Organisational Development & Transformations Programme
@lawrie
Lawrie-Phipps
© HEFCE 2012
The Higher Education Funding Council for England, on behalf of JISC, permits reuse of this presentation and its contents under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 UK England & Wales Licence.