1. SUMMER OUTLOOKS 2019 Lea Dehaudt, Moderator ENTSO-E
Lukas Galdikas ENTSO-E

2. 1 2 3 4 5 Programme Introduction
Generation Evolution and Hydro Reservoir Levels Overview
Q&A
Conclusions and next steps
Summer Outlook Results

3. What do the outlooks tell you?
Role of interconnections
Influence of external factors: weather, market conditions, consumer behaviour…
Sensitivity analysis: look for severe case scenario (1 out of 20 years) & see how system reacts
Review of the previous season for a deeper understanding and improvements

4. Summer Outlook 2019 results
Lukas Galdikas, Adequacy Analyst, ENTSO-E

5. Operational decisions
Different risks addressed with different timeframes
TYNDP
MAF
Seasonal
RSCs‘
Week ahead
Long term
Mid term
Short term
>10 years
10 years
5 years
1 year
6 months
1 week
Investment decisions
Policy decisions
Operational decisions
REAL TIME
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES

6. Seasonal Outlooks- Stepwise approach
Inputs from TSOs and pan-European databases
European constraining scenarios
synchronous peak
(upward) → Wednesdays 7 pm
low demand with high RES
(downward) → Sundays 5 am and 11 am
Focused analysis on weeks flagged at risk
Probabilistic approach using numerous situations (temperature, wind...)
Aim is to estimate the probability that an issue could occur
Main drivers are identified

7. Lack of margin is not a blackout
Balance in
Day-Ahead including reserves
Scope of Winter Outlook
Intraday Measures
Partial & Controlled demand shedding
Is 100% of demand met in
day-ahead market?
Strategic reserves
Out of market demand response
Grid exceptional measures
Controlled partial shedding

8. Evolution of Europe’s generation mix
Net generation capacity increase in Europe more than doubled
Acceleration of new RES installation
Coal generation capacity continuous decreasing

9. High levels of snow in the Alps
Hydro reservoir levels in early spring
Most of Europe
Switzerland
High levels of snow in the Alps
France

10. Summer Outlook- Severe Conditions
Adequacy at pan-European synchronous peak demand time
Adequacy indicators of Italy better compared with last summer
Supply margin is tight in week 30, due to high maintenance works

11. Probabilistic assessment on week 30 of 2019
Regional cooperation is a key – potential need for out of market measures

12. What for future Seasonal Outlooks?
Implement Clean Energy Package requirements, especially focusing on Risk Preparedness Regulation
Extend coordination with week ahead adequacy assessments
performed by Regional Security Coordinators
Set a scene for Seasonal Outlook full probabilistic hourly modelling in similar way as in Mid-term Adequacy Forecast

13. Break of 5 minutes

14. Time for questions/answers

15. Takeaways
ENTSO-E seasonal outlooks are unique pan-European, system wide, security of supply analysis
Methodologies are continuously improving and cooperation is enhancing
Electricity system expected to be adequate under severe conditions
Hydro reservoirs levels are average in Europe

16. Upcoming - Don’t miss out
This summer:
Public consultations on Risk preparedness regional methodologies

17. Thank you for your attention
Please send any questions to: