1. Macroeconomic Review and Outlook
JULY 2018

2. Global trade volumes expanded rapidly in 2017
Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects

3. Protectionism threatens the global economy

4. How the South African narrative has changed
16 April February 2018

5. But we still have a lot to fix!
7 December 2017

6. Sovereign rating downgrades to “sub-investment”
Source: Moody’s, S&P Global and Fitch Ratings

7. Weak activity in 1Q’18 but trend remains upwards
Source: Statistics South Africa

8. Economic downturns: The longest post-1994 decline
Source: South African Reserve Bank

9. Expansion phases: A consumer-led rebound likely?
Source: South African Reserve Bank

10. A strong rebound in consumer confidence in 1H’18
Source: Bureau for Economic Research

11. Consumer spending growth has remained subdued
Source: South African Reserve Bank

12. Consumer finances: Household debt ratios are elevated
Source: South African Reserve Bank

13. Consumer finances: Unemployment rate is elevated
Source: Statistics South Africa

14. Business confidence also showing signs of improvement
Source: Bureau for Economic Research, South African Reserve Bank

15. Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP)
Target sectors
Automotive (Automotive Production and Development Programme)
Metal fabrication, Capital & Rail Transport Equipment
Aerospace and Defence
Green Industries
Clothing, Textiles, Leather and Footwear
Agro-Processing and Biofuels
Plastics, Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals and Cosmetics
Business Process Services
Creative industries: Film, Music & Craft
Source: DTI

16. Renewed Rand weakness due to global drivers
Source: Nedbank Group Economic Unit

17. Interest rates to be kept as low as possible
Source: Nedbank Group Economic Unit

18. The South African economy: the road ahead
SA growth to remain below potential, despite favourable global conditions
Measures needed to improve the outlook
Credible and decisive leadership to dispose of political uncertainty effectively
Growth-inducing measures with more policy certainty and direction
Structural reforms are necessary to improve the competitiveness of the SA economy
The National Development Plan is not perfect, but it provides a reasonable roadmap

19. Outlook: a slow but steady growth recovery
Source: Nedbank Group Economic Unit

20. Thank you