1. AMRA’s contribution to WP4
T4.4 Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment

2. Main Objectives (AMRA’s):
Development of hybrid physical/stochastic modelling capacities as the base of non-stationary PSHA;
Development of a Traffic-lights system for induced seismicity control and alert procedures

3. Main Objectives (AMRA):
Development of hybrid physical/stochastic modelling to forecast future seismicity rates:
Non-stationary stochastic modelling (e.g., n-etas) and Bayesian data analysis;
Physical parameters, as e.g., stress change distribution, fault planes distribution, relationships with technological data;
Consideration of source mechanisms in the modelling of seismic wavefield and development of GMPE

4. Main Objectives (AMRA):
Non-stationary models, taking into account the relationship with technological data;
Development and implementation of advanced hybrid physical/stochastic modelling to forecast future seismicity rates:
Physical parameters, as e.g., stress change distribution, fault planes distribution, relationship;
Non-stationary stochastic modelling (e.g., n-etas) and Bayesian data analysis;

7. Matteo Picozzi, Aldo Zollo
Task 4.4. Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment (Task Leader: Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal – AMRA)
Contribution of AMRA-RISSC on the analysis of induced seismicity
Development of a Traffic-lights system for induced seismicity control and alert procedures
Matteo Picozzi, Aldo Zollo
Seismological Laboratory (RISSC-Lab)*
Department of Physics, University of Naples Federico II
*In project SHEER, RISSC-Lab is Third Party of AMRA scarl for research activities within WP4 (Tasks 4.1 and 4.4)
SHEER – Kick-off-Meeting, Krakow,

8. SHEER – Kick-off-Meeting, Krakow, 05.05.2015
The activity of injection/extraction of fluids can change the characteristics of the medium and the properties of occurrence of earthquakes
Aim
Development of a Traffic-lights system for induced seismicity control and alert procedures.
Method
The time-dependent PSHA approach proposed by Convertito et al. (2012).
50% probability that PGA < 1m/s^2 in the next 2 months
Hazard analysis function of time: comparison of PGA observed with levels of acceleration expected with a given probability for a period of two months
SHEER – Kick-off-Meeting, Krakow,