1. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo, PhD Senior Economist

2. Report scope Progress Forecasts Constraints Governance Financing
Synergies

3. Africa Starting Disadvantage
Low income trap: 28 countries are LICs
56% of the poor in Africa
228 Million poor 1990
&
410 Million in 2015
37 - low Human Development
Lowest tax effort
Just about 2% of global GDP
Motivation for 3 year reality check: is Africa Converging to others and 2030 targets?
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

4. AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK
Where do we stand…
Average growth is below the 7% per annum
Social inclusion struggle
 2nd most unequal region in world
 Education –enrolment good but slow on completion
 Healthcare –Maternal mortality higher global average
Africa status
Only 40% of the SDGS indicators have data
Only 50% of African countries have comparable surveys over last two decades
Both indicator and methodology framework remain incomplete
22% of African nations have independent statistics offices
Data
On growth, anything less than 7% means there are output gaps (difference between potential and actual growth). Only 7 countries have already met the Maternal mortality rate..
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

5. Status Cont …
Africa partly on track on Gender Equality, Climate and life on land.
No data for SDGs 10, 11 and 12
Social inclusion progress outstripped by population growth (Over 33 million babies every year)
280 million malnourished
63 million children stunted
Poverty and inequality remain widely prevalent.
Forecasts SDGs (1,2,3,4, 5,6 and 7)
 North Africa likely to meet all
 Central Africa unlikely to meet all.
 The other regions modestly on track on enrolment, child mortality, and access to drinking water
Overall, considering the goals in totality, all regions except North Africa are fairly off track.
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

6. AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK
Mapping SDGs data gap
While there are 96 indicators nearly consistent with indicators used in the SDG index, not all 96 indicators have comparable data across African countries. That is why additional indicators are adopted for SDG index!
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

7. Forecast 2030… Poverty Malnutrition rates Enrolment rates
Child mortality
Access to electricity
Access to drinking water
Overall, considering the goals in totality, all regions except North Africa are fairly off track.
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

8. Finance at glance (annual)
Domestic revenues US$500 billion
ODA US$50 billion
FDI slightly less than
US$50 billion
Remittances in US$60 billion
Over US$70 billion in Illicit flows mainly trade invoicing
Financing gap for SDGs estimated at US $ 500 bn to US $ 1.2 trillion (Over 20% of GDP)
Annual Revenue gap – 5% of GDP medium term
ODA growth slower than historical average
Remittances growing but cost more than twice of SDG target of 3%
FDI highly volatile
NDBs are small and under capitalized
US$300 trillion is being in the form of developed
assets that offer low returns
(United Nations, 2018d).
Africa financial flows are as much as additional funds needed. ODA in terms of per capita and real terms has reduced.
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

9. Governance Framework for SDGs
SDG Framework in place but lack operational and implementation framework
Lack of clarity on accountability and enforcement mechanisms for SDGs
Voluntary reporting is incomplete, not comprehensive, not comparable and irregular
Weaknesses from design to implementation
Governance Framework for SDGs
Governance framework is stuck at high level ( Island) and main land – continent and countries have not fully embraced
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

10. AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

11. Governance and SDGs Correlation
Challenges continued …
Governance and SDGs Correlation
Low score on both indices
Empirical evidence also supports this correlation. For example recent IMF paper the least corrupt governments collect 4 percent of GDP more in tax revenues than countries at the same level of economic development with the highest levels of corruption.
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

12. Take aways Africa is way off track
Current efforts necessary but not sufficient
Weakness across the entire SDG ecosystem for continent
There is an urgent need to compensate for lost time
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

13. Call for action (Re-double efforts)…
Governance
Harmonized framework at continent level for follow up on SDGs and AU 2063
Integration of SDGs in global trade, investment , financial and Development policies
Regional collaborative exchanges for lesson learning
Annual country based monitoring frameworks encouraged
SDG based budgeting encouraged
Data
Political, regulatory and financial support for statistical services.
Embrace online and digital monitoring systems for SDGs
Leverage international and regional capacity building initiatives to country level
ODA for statistics is warranted
Financing
Annual data tracking mechanism for all financial streams
Global call to meet to the 0.7% of ODA by OECD
Private sector call on 0.3% of GDP or more
National financing frameworks
Strengthen Domestic revenue reforms
Capitalise National Development Banks
Social Inclusion
Africa Centered Social inclusion focused funds
Political support for population growth control
Demographic reforms undertaken. Population sensitive policy
Budget reforms undertaken. Annual budget – earmarked protection of population growth.
We will work with countries and other stakeholders to develop concrete action plans…
Self reliance through partnerships
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

14. Africa Rest of World SDG targets Africa can do it …
As the Japanese proverb goes: “Cross a shallow river as if it were deep.”
We shall leave no One behind
AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

15. Thank you for your attention
Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo, PhD Senior Economist
As the Japanese proverb goes: “Cross a shallow river as if it were deep.”
Africa SDGs are a shallow river in Global Context
As the Japanese proverb goes: “Cross a shallow river as if it were deep.”
Thank you for your attention