1. Crop & Biofuel Outlook for 2012
Integrated Crop Management Conference
Ames, Iowa
Nov. 30, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
146.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,310
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
Imports 14 8 28 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,453
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,792
4,600
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,410
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,600
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,054
12,610
Ending Stocks
843
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,046
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,275
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,635
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,325
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,080
Ending Stocks
195
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.60
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Source: USDA-NASS

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 11/29/2011

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Change of Export Pace

16. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2011
4.64
2012
4.86
2013
5.07
2014
5.29 16 16

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

18. Ethanol Margins
Source: CARD

19. Ethanol Blending Advantage

20. Biodiesel Production
Source: DOE-EIA

21. Biodiesel Margins
Source: CARD

22. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

23. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

24. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

25. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

26. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

27. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

28. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

29. States with Room to Grow
Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

30. Iowa Crop Margins

32. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops, worries about dry conditions
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70; Soy $12.60
Futures (as of 11/29/11): Corn $5.79; Soy $11.16
2012/13:
Futures (as of 11/29/11): Corn $5.35; Soy $11.04

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: