1. Iraq
Timeline

2. 1. Bush 43 WMD Argument Assumption: Iraq has WMD October 2002 NIE
Pro and Con

3. 2. Spreading Democracy Falling Dominoes and Democracy
Map from Freedom House (2006)

4. 3. Unfinished Business 1998 Iraq Liberation Act 1990/91 Gulf War
When was the first Bush 43 meeting on overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

5. 4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda Relationship?
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and )
Levin Report, October 2004
Pentagon Report, August 2007

6. 2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002;
UN Security Council Res (11/02)
Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL , 10/16/02
National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment
Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

7. US is Committed: Debates
Questions About the War:
Should we invade?
What to expect if we do invade?
Troop Levels needed?

8. Questions About After the War
Building Democracy:
Internal Issues
Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII
Or Bosnia

9. Questions About After the War
Regional Dynamics
Iran
Syria
Al-Qaeda in Iraq

10. March 19, 2003: US Invasion
April 9, 2003

11. May 1, 2003

12. But… Mission Complicated
Insurgency
Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military
Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004
Kurdish Independence?
Shiite militias (Iran?)
Moqtada al-Sadr

13. Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007 (Washington Post)

14. Political Developments?
Honest Attempts to Build Government
Ethnic parties
Religious parties
Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab
Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite
Sunni vs. Sunni
OIL

15. Positive Political Developments
7/03 Interim Governing Council
12/03 Saddam Hussein captured
6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes over
1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly
8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution
10/05 Constitution approved by referendum
12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution
Council of Representatives
4/06 New government chosen by Council of Representatives

16. Public Opinion of US Around the World
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas,” 6/13/06:

17. Al-Qaeda after Invasion
AQ in Iraq
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
(killed June 2006)
AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)

18. US public opinion turns against the war
Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, , March 2007:

19. Bush 43 Approval Ratings

20. Questions How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD?
How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath?
We’re there: what do we do?
The Bush surge
Iraq Study Group
Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans

21. Good News? Awakening Councils (summer 2006)
US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24/MCWP )
General David Petraeus

22. The Result of Strategy Shift From Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 DoD Report to Congress, p. 18

23. Obama Policy
2/27/09 Speech
Refocus on Afghanistan

25. The Bigger Battle? Pakistan Northwest Frontier Province
Federally Administered Tribal Areas