1. John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist, IEEP
The Inland Empire
Why The Explosive Growth?
Issues We Face!
John Husing, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, IEEP

2. Inland Empire Population
Greater Than 25 of 50 States

3. Population Forecast,
2045: 6,119,497
1,111,783

4. Job Forecast,
2040: 2,100,712
710,402

5. Ethnicity

6. Non-Citizen Population

7. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth!

8. Inland Empire A CA Job Engine!

9. Shares of Job Growth

10. So. CA Housing Affordability

11. No. CA Housing Affordability

12. Price Competition
Highest Price Gaps In History

13. Housing Market Consequences
Lack of New Housing Construction In High-End Counties
NIMBY Opposition to Affordable Workforce Housing
Downzoning by City Councils
CEQA Allows Easy Lawsuits to Stop Projects
State Solution: Force Population Into Attached Urban Units
Marginally Educated Force To Move … Inland Counties Deal With the Results:
School Challenges
Workforce Qualifications
Poverty

14. Adult Educational Levels Dictate Blue Collar/Technical Jobs

15. Median Household Income, 2017

16. Share in Poverty, 2017
23.5%
16.4%

17. Gold Mine Theory
Secondary Tier
Primary Tier
21%

18. Sector Job Growth 2011-2018 2011-2018 10.7% of Job Growth 2011-2018

19. Median Health Care Pay: 2018
$62,363

20. ACA & Health Care Demand
-60% Drop in Uninsured

21. Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs ACA Attacks
2019 Forecast: 4,800
Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs
Shortage of Trained Workers
ACA Attacks

22. Logistics

23. Median Logistics Pay: 2018
$47,946

24. Educational Requirement for Position
Skill Ladders Based on Education for Position Median Pay Warehousing, Inland Empire 2017
Educational Requirement for Position 
Experienced
All Workers
Entry Level
Share of Jobs
Work Experience, Plus Bachelor's or Higher
$65.84
$47.81
$32.96
7.7%
Bachelor's Degree
$36.54
$28.98
$23.04
6.3%
Work Experience
$30.56
$24.02
$18.88
4.8%
Associates Degree
$33.66
$26.16
$20.62
1.2%
Post-Secondary Vocational Education
$40.83
$28.45
$22.64
4.7%
Long-Term On-the-Job Training
$32.21
$24.78
$18.97
5.7%
Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training
$34.25
$24.49
$17.72
26.9%
Short-Term On-the-Job Training
$19.65
$15.12
$12.21
42.8%
Wholesale Trade Sector
$30.59
$22.75
$17.26
100.0%
No Schooling After High School
$26.09
$19.47
$14.94
80.1%
Trade or Community College
$39.39
$27.99
$22.24
5.9%
Bachelor's Or More
$52.69
$39.36
$28.51
14.0%

25. E-Commerce
14.5%

26. Port Container Import Volume Record Levels

27. Net Industrial Absorption
21.9 Milllion

28. New Industrial Construction
3.5%
Vacancy

29. 2019 Forecast: 9,000
Rationale: Running Out of Land in the Valley Areas
Tariffs
Shortage of Trained Middle Managers
U.S. Growth Slowdown

30. AQMD: Indirect Source Rule
Attempt To Make Warehousing Operations Pay For Trucks Coming To Them To Slow Sector’s Growth
Slowing Growth Would Close Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers
Robert Woods Johnson Public Health Research on What Causes Public Health Problems:
Socio-Economics Issues (poverty, lack of jobs) 40%
Population Health Behaviors Related to Poverty 30%
Access to Medical Care due to Poverty 20%
Environmental Issues %
90%
Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010

31. ONT Airport Cargo
Another Record Volume
14.8%
1.0%

32. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay
$54,800
Lack of Growth Closes Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers

33. CA Electrical Cost
+83.5%
+135.4%

34. 2019 Forecast: 1,000
Rationale: Regulation & CA Electrical Costs
Automation
Tariffs
Shortage of Replacement Skilled Workers
U.S. Growth Slowdown

35. Median Construction Pay: 2018
$53,322
Slower Growth Hurts Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers

36. Home Prices
+4.6%
-10.1%

37. Industrial Construction

38. 2019 Forecast: 6,000
Rationale: Difficulty Permitting Lots
CA Environmental Quality Act
Very High Prices, Low Volume, Lack of Supply
Shortage of Skilled Craft Workers

39. Median Private High-End Pay: 2018
$76,202

40. Low Educational Attainment

41. ONT Airport Passengers
1989 Level
12.4%
4.2%
Population: up 2.4 million or 108.2% to 4.6 million
Job Level: up 864,502 or % to 1,512,194
Companies: up 75,133 or % to 75,133

42. 2019 Forecast: 3,500
Rationale: Education Gap To Coastal Counties
Government Tax Revenue Difficulty (internet)
Professionals Serve IE From Coastal Offices

43. Median Moderate Paying & Real Estate, Finance, Education Jobs: 2018
$57,109

44. Home Volume: No Growth

45. 2019 Forecast: 3,900
Rationale: Banks Hiring Less
Real Estate Sales Not Growing
School Budget Growth May Slow

46. Population Serving Sectors
High End Consumers
Still Doing Well
E-commerce death
3rd Strongest Inland Sector

47. Population Serving Sector Pay: 2018
$32,177

48. 2019 Forecast: 9,900
Rationale: E-Commerce Hurts Retailing
Lack of Available Workers (4.2% Unemployment)
Workers Going to Logistics

49. 2019 Forecast
2019 = 38,200 v = 49,300
Growth 2.52% %
Unemployment 4.2% %
2018 = 49,300
Growth %
Unemployment %

50. Questions?