1. The EEA’s work on energy and transitions
Dr Hans Bruyninckx I 10 March 2016 I European Environment Agency, Copenhagen
The EEA’s work on energy and transitions

2. Transitions thinking is built into EEA medium-term planning
Strategic area 1: Informing policy implementation Strategic area 2: Assessing systemic challenges “Goal: To assess systemic challenges in the context of short-, medium- and long-term transitions, and to signal opportunities for (re)framing/recalibrating environmental policy to facilitate transition towards a more sustainable society in Europe.” Strategic area 3: Knowledge co-creation, sharing and use

3. 1: Informing policy implementation
Air pollution, transport and noise
Industrial
pollution
Climate change mitigation and energy
Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
Water management, resources and ecosystems
Marine and maritime, fisheries and coastal
Biodiversity, ecosystems, agriculture and forests
Urban, land use and soil
Waste and material resources

4. 2: Assessing systemic challenges
Resource-efficient economy and the environment
Environment, human health and well-being
Megatrends and transitions
Sustainability assessments and state of the environment reporting

5. Climate change mitigation and energy activities
Inventory
Projections
National policies and measures
‘Proxy’ inventory (Y-1)
International MRV
Effort Sharing Decision review
Emission Trading System
Cars and Vans
EU Monitoring Mechanism
(2004 Decision > 2013 Regulation)
GHG
emissions
Indicators
‘Proxy’
Energy efficiency index
Energy
efficiency
Indicators
‘Proxy’
National action plans
Progress reports
Renewable
energy

7. The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015)
A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks.
SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP.
SOER 2015 Synthesis report
SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends
11 briefings
Global
megatrends
25 briefings
European
briefings
9 briefings
Cross-country
comparisons
39+3 briefings
Countries and regions

8. The policy context has evolved
Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme 2014–2018

9. Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme
‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits.
Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’
Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

10. Key messages from SOER 2015
Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain
Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context
Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation
Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

11. Efficiency gains in energy
Economic growth
Index: 1990 = 100
Resource use
We have become more efficient at using energy. But our growing economy means that final energy consumption in the EU has not changed greatly since Since 76 % of primary energy consumption in 2011 was from fossil fuels, this places enormous pressure on the planet. On present trends, we are not making a transition to a low-carbon economy.
Efficiency gains
Source: EEA (CSI 028)

12. Efficiency gains in the transport system
(SLIDE 14) In transport, the stock of cars in the EU-27 has been continuously increasing since And at the same time, kilometres travelled increased at nearly the same pace. As a result, fuel consumption has increased in spite of the fact that cars are more efficient.

13. Efficiency gains in the residential system
Growth
Resource use
(SLIDE 13) Similar trends are at work in housing and transport. Homes are more energy efficient, but this is partly offset by the growth in the floor area. So overall fuel consumption goes up.
Efficiency
Source: ENER 037 indicator

14. System innovation: stylized optimism
Source: UNEP (2011)

15. System innovation: qualified optimism
Source: van der Brugge & de Haan (2005)

16. System innovation: the complex and malleable reality
Landscape
Landscape developments put pressure on existing regime
Markets and consumer preferences
Science
Industry
Regime
Culture
Policy
Technology
The regime is dynamically stable
New configuration breaks through, taking advantage of ‘windows of opportunity’. Adjustments occur in regime
Niches
Small networks of actors support innovation on the basis of expectations and visions. Learning and experiments take place
Time
Source: based on Geels & Schot (2007)

17. EU decarbonisation objectives

18. Selected publications
Annual Trends and projections in Europe report, tracking progress in reducing GHG emissions, improving EE and increasing RES consumption across the EU and its Member States.
Renewable energy in Europe report, providing detail on the evolution and benefits of individual RES technologies.
Energy support and its impact on innovation in renewable energy.
Energy and environment indicators (annual).
Development of an Energy Efficiency Index, as means to better understand real improvements in EE.
Assessment of carbon lock-in risks in the EU power sector (upcoming).

19. Thank you Hans.Bruyninckx@eea.europa.eu
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20. Optional slides

21. The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience
Protecting, conserving
and enhancing natural capital
Resource efficiency
and the low-carbon
economy
Safeguarding from
environmental risks to health
Past (5–10) year trends
20+ years
outlook /
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.