1. Predicting Violence in Salinas
Jarrod Shingleton

2. Background
Salinas, CA has had an ongoing crime problem through its history
The homicide rate in Salinas is almost twice the homicide rate in the rest of the country
The crime is predominately caused by two feuding gangs: the Sureños and the Norteños

3. More Background
Thesis by Clark in 2009 using single variable regression.
Using multiple variable regression to predict violence trends and eventually causality.

4. Salinas Violence Statistics

5. Salinas Compared to National Average
Taken from City-data.com 5 September 2011

6. Prior to linear fitting
Establish correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variables
Here: Violence vs. other variables
If correlation is high enough, choose variables and check correlation between independent variables

7. Correlation Variable Violence VS: Year 0.637 Unemployment .2253
Population
0.6769
Unemployment with a 1 year shift
0.4705
Dropout Rate
0.3899
Number of police
Salinas PD budget
0.3926
Vacant Houses
Salinas PD budget a 1 year shift
0.4211
Person per House with a 1 year shift
Salinas Library Budget
0.5118

8. Correlation Between Variables
Violence Vs:
SPD Budget VS:
Year
0.637
0.9499
Unemployment
0.2253
0.2351
Population
0.6769
0.8937
Unemployment with a 1 year shift
0.4705
0.1991
Dropout Rate
0.3899
Number of police
0.9439
Salinas Library Budget
0.5118
0.7479
Vacant Houses
0.9352
Person per House
0.6690
Person per House with a 1 year shift
0.6500

15. Fitting Function= 37595. 45 - 9599. 09. (Unemployment) - 833. 021
Fitting Function= * (Unemployment) * (Unemployment) * (Unemployment)3

16. Fitting Function with 2 Variables
Fitting Function = *(Unemployment) *(Unemployment) *(Unemployment) *(SPD Budget) *(SPD Budget) *(SPD Budget)3

17. Predicted Pattern of Violence for the Next 15 Years in Salinas

18. Questions?