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www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!
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I.Modeling motivated reasoning II.The Cultural cognition of risk (& other things) III.Ideology, cognitive reflection & motivated reasoning What am I talking about?...
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Bayesian Information Processing
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Confirmation Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Extrinsic Goal/Interest
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Extrinsic Goal/Interest Motivated ReasoningSpurious confirmation bias
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Extrinsic Goal/Interest
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Ideological Predisposition Ideologically Motivated Reasoning
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Motivated ReasoningSpurious confirmation bias Ideological Predisposition
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I.Modeling motivated reasoning II.The Cultural cognition of risk (& other things) III.Ideology, cognitive reflection & motivated reasoning What am I talking about?...
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Extrinsic Goal/Interest Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Predisposition Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Hierarchy Egalitarianism Abortion procedure Mary Douglass Group-grid worldview scheme compulsory psychiatric treatment Abortion procedure compulsory psychiatric treatment Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control HPV Vaccination Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Cognition prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Predisposition Cultural Cognition of Risk
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38 Identity Protective Cognition
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated system 2 reasoning
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Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009) Perceive Benefits > Risks * Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
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Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009) * Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Perceive Benefits > Risks
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Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009) * Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Perceive Benefits > Risks
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Information effect: familiarity Information effect: culture Perceive Benefits > Risks
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Information effect: familiarity Information effect: culture Perceive Benefits > Risks
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High Risk Moderate Risk Slight Risk Almost No Risk n = 1,820 to 1,830. Risk variables are 4-pt measures of risk to people in American Society posed by indicated risk. Differences between group means all significant at p.01.
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Information effect: familiarity Information effect: culture Perceive Benefits > Risks
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0.9% 2.2% 3.6% 5.8% 19.5% -1.4% -0.9% -0.5% -2.6% 0% -5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 5% Increase in Predicted Likelihood of Self- Reported Familiarity with Nanotechnology Hierarch Egalitarian 20th 40th60th80th99th Communitarian Individualistic Percentile Figure S1 1st Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated system 2 reasoning
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Predisposition Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Spurious confirmation bias Cultural Predisposition
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Predisposition Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Control Condition
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Anti-pollution Condition
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Geoengineering Condition
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more polarization less polarization Polarization z_Study dismiss 2 anti-pollution Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, Tarantola, Silva & Braman, Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment, CCP Working Paper No. 92 (Jan. 9, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1981907
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated system 2 reasoning
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Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change 2, 732-735 (2012).
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Two Hypotheses 1.Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) 2.Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) science illiteracy bounded rationality
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How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score)
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Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (slow) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (fast) How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?
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Lesser Risk Greater Risk Science literacy Numeracy low high perceived risk (z-score) lowhigh PIT prediction actual variance How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?
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Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Cultural Variance Hierarchical Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy?
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Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egalitarian Communitarian PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Hierarchical Individualist
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Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? High Sci lit/numeracy Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ
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Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num...
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Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds System 1 and System 2 Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated system 2 reasoning
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I.Modeling motivated reasoning II.The Cultural cognition of risk (& other things) III.Ideology, cognitive reflection & motivated reasoning What am I talking about?...
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Asymmetry thesis
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Cognition prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds System 1 and System 2 Cultural Predisposition
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38 Identity Protective Cognition
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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Finding # 1. Political differences in CRT are trivial CRT Score Democrat Republican N = 1600. Derived from ordered logit regression. Outcome variable is CRT score. Predictor is 7-point partisan self-identification measure. Predictor value set at 2 for Democrat and 6 for Republican. CIs are 0.95 level of confidence. Likelihood of Score
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CRT Score Likelihood of Score
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is. How strongly do you agree or disagree with this statement? [strongly disagree, moderately disagree, slightly disagree, slightly agree, moderately disagree, strongly disagree] I think the word-problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and open-minded someone is.
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design
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1.Control condition Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is.... 2. Skeptic-is-biased condition... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who accept evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who reject evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who believe climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who are skeptical that climate change is happening.... 3. Nonskeptic-is-biased condition... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who reject evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who accept evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who are skeptical that climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who believe climate change is happening....
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1.Control condition Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is.... 2. Skeptic-is-biased condition... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who accept evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who reject evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who believe climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who are skeptical that climate change is happening.... 3. Nonskeptic-is-biased condition... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who reject evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who accept evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who are skeptical that climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who believe climate change is happening....
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Asymmetry thesis
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Ideological Predisposition Ideologically Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
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Prior: other side displays IMR Other sides CRT score Ideological Predisposition Ideologically Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Revised: other side displays IMR New Evidence
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Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Ideological Predisposition Ideologically Motivated Reasoning prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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Finding # 2. Ideologically biased assimilation of validity of CRT control nonskeptic is biased skeptic is biased Fitted ordered-logit regression analysis values. Y-axis reflects predicted probability of agreeing either slightly, moderately, or strongly with CRT_valid.
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT control vs. skeptic-is-biased & nonskeptic-is-biased Sample Measures Experimental Manipulation Study design Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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Finding # 2. Ideologically biased assimilation of validity of CRT control nonskeptic is biased skeptic is biased Fitted ordered-logit regression analysis values. Y-axis reflects predicted probability of agreeing either slightly, moderately, or strongly with CRT_valid.
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Finding # 3. Ideologically biased assimilation increases with CRT Note. N = 1750. Derived from ordered logit regression. Point estimates of predicted likelihood of agreeing (slightly, moderately or strongly) that CRT test is valid. CIs are 0.95 level of confidence.
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1.Control condition Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is.... 2. Skeptic-is-biased condition... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who accept evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who reject evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who believe climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who are skeptical that climate change is happening.... 3. Nonskeptic-is-biased condition... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who reject evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who accept evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who are skeptical that climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who believe climate change is happening....
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Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?! vs.
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Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!
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Did protestors cross the line between speech and intimidation? source: Dan M. Kahan, David A. Hoffman, Donald Braman, Danieli Evans & Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, They Saw a Protest : Cognitive Illiberalism and the Speech-Conduct Distinction, 64 Stan. L. Rev. (forthcoming 2012)
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Experimental Conditions Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition source: Dan M. Kahan, David A. Hoffman, Donald Braman, Danieli Evans & Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, They Saw a Protest : Cognitive Illiberalism and the Speech-Conduct Distinction, 64 Stan. L. Rev. (forthcoming 2011)
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Pct. Agree Protestors blocked Screamed in face Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed
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Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!
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