1. Chain-Linking,Benchmarking and Seasonal Adjustment at Statistics Sweden
Summary of methods presented at the CMBF
Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly
National Accounts
Eurostat , Luxembourg.
Sven Öhlén
Statistics Sweden
Macroeconomics and Price Department
Statistical Methods

2. Project: Quarterly Pattern of Real QNA Goal: Elimination of the Residual (R=0)
Present Methods of Real QNA (Survey): Sources,Calculations, Revisons, Quality, Benchmarking, Seasonal Adjustment
Chain-Linking (CL)
Benchmarking (BM)
Seasonal Adjustment (SA)
Better Tools (SAS)
Documentation

3. Project: Quarterly Pattern of QNA Residual: Production vs Expenditure

4. Project: Quarterly Pattern of QNA Chain-Linking (Comparison perid)
Over the Years (Present method): This quarter with the same quarter last year Reference Year= Base Year=2005
Annual Overlap? This quarter with mean of last year,
Quarterly Overlap? This quarter with Q4 last year.

5. Project: Quarterly Pattern of Real QNA Chain-Linking Results in progress
Quarterly Overlap Negative bias (2%)==>Benchmarking
Over the Years User preference Small bias
Annual overlap Unbiased

6. Benchmarking Statement of the Problem Quarterly data
Revision period: 2 years
Adjust a preliminary series:
to a revised (benchmarked) series :
such that that:
(i)
(ii) The benchmarked series preserve important properties of the preliminary series
Y=Yearly Totals

7. Benchmarking Distance function D
Adjust to
Annual totals:
Minimize:
Subject to:

8. Benchmarking Principles
MinQ:
weighting factor
MinD4:
2007

9. Benchmarking and Seasonal Adjustment - A Study of Swedish GDP -
Paper presented at the Conference on Seasonality,
Seasonal Adjustment and their Implications for short-
term Analysis and Forecasting.
Eurostat , Luxembourg.
Sven Öhlén
Statistics Sweden
Macroeconomics and Price Department
Management

10. Benchmarking and Seasonal Adustment Empirical results: Increasing yearly BIAS
MinD4 best method,
Fig RMSE % for benchmarked series for GDP. Levels.

11. Seasonal adjustment at SCB
History
X-11-ARIMA 1999
TRAMO/SEATS?
Research, SCB
Methods of SA
Software, IT
Öhlén: Reports at SCB
Research, EU (SAM-98)

12. Seasonal adjustment at SCB Software:
Present situation
X-11/12 (SAS)
Short term industrial statistics (300)
Labour force statistics (10)
1999 TRAMO/SEATS
National Accounts (170)
The Activity index
Short term industrial statistics (100)
Export/import of goods (40)

13. Seasonal Adjustment National Accounts
TRAMO/SEATS
Individually Model-Selection
Working-Day Adjusted
Easter, Trading Days
Outlier detection
SAS-interface

14. Project: Quarterly Pattern of Real QNA Seasonal Adjustment
SAS-Interface
Model-Selection issues (Superpop)
New Series (QA in Current Prices)
New Working-Day Adjustment
Direct vs Indirect Adjustment
Publication policy
Revision Strategy

15. Chain-Linking Evaluation criteria Benchmarking Tools,
Project: Quarterly Pattern of Real QNA Report: June 2007 Implementation: Nov 2007
Chain-Linking Evaluation criteria
Benchmarking Tools,
Seasonal Adjustment Users
Goal: Elimination of the Residual (R=0)
Efficient System for consolidation