1. Current Research on 3-D Air Quality Modeling: wildfire!
Extracted from Presentation of Sept. 29th 2006 to Institute for Chemical Process and Environmental Technology NRC Canada by
Jack Chen
Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
Washington State University

2. Short Range Forecast System: AIRPACT
AIRPACT has been providing hourly air quality forecasts for the Pacific Northwest since 2000 O3 CO
Primary PM tracers
Air toxics tracers
Secondary PM2.5
ASO4, ANO3, ANH4, SOA
Wet and dry pollutant deposition
Visibility parameters
AIRPACT-CALGRID (2000)
AIRPACT-CMAQ (2006)
Forecast Meteorology (MM5)
EPA: MCIP  CMAQ
CALMET  CALGRID
Gridded Emissions
AIRPACT: Air Indicator Report for the Public Awareness and Community Tracking
(CMAQ aerosol dynamics: coagulation, nucleation, cloud scavenging, dry deposition)
Toxics in AIRPACT: Acrolein,Benzene,1,3-Butadiene,Perchloroethylene,Formaldehyde,Acetaldehyde,Phenanthrene
State-of-science knowledge in atmospheric chemistry and physics
Multiphase chemistry (gas, aqueous, aerosol) and aerosol dynamics
CMAQ has a wide user community with active development and support from the public and EPA

3. Short Range Forecast System: AIRPACT
AIRPACT-CALGRID
81 x 138 at 4-km
13 layers
AIRPACT-CMAQ
95 x 95 at 12-km
21 layers
System runs daily
AIRPACT-CMAQ
AIRPACT-CALGRID
With parallel processing, the total runtime from AIRPACT-CMAQ is ~3-hr less than that of AIRPACT-CALGRID

4. Short Range Forecast System: AIRPACT
2005 anthropogenic emissions (SMOKE)
WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module
Gridded Emissions
Updated Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3)
Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions
Additional system updates includes emissions processing and more realistic ICON/BCON
Possible future updates: Since EPA-NOAA is also using CMAQ for US continental forecast, AIRPACT-CMAQ opens the door for future ICON/BCON from their output (via nesting). Also when UW switch over to WRF from MM5, we can easily update the system to use WRF output.
Dynamic Boundary Conditions
EPA: MCIP  CMAQ
Dynamic Initial Conditions

5. Dairy NH3 Emission Module
WA Dairy NH3 (ton/yr)
Housing
8,634
Storage
5,441
Application
4,364
Total
18,439
OR Dairy NH3 (ton/yr)
Housing
9,469
Storage
5,079
Application
3,420
Total
17,967
NH3 Dairy model output is close to EPA Est. NH3 State total: WA 44,879 ton/yr, OR 13,028 ton/yr. The model has correction for WS and Temp and better parameterization for dairies.

6. Wild and Prescribed Fire Emission
MODIS Image for Sept
Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006
Observed Fire Events
WSU Pullman
BlueSky System at Forest Service
Integrate with the Forest Service Bluesky system. Emissions are calculated as per fire basis with spatially resolved information for fuel loading and fire size.
The Tripod fire caused by lightening in July is a record breaking fire in the last 50 year in WA, with >175 K acres burn. The smoke from the fire affected residences in central Washington and Southern BC. Columbia Complx starts in Aug 25, Bar Complx starts in Jul 26,
Fire size (area and heat flux), fire location, Emissions : TOG, CO, PM2_5, PMC,
MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on board the Terra and Aqua satellites
SMOKE emission processor in AIRPACT calculates plume rise for these fire emissions
AIRPACT retrieves: fire location, fire size, heat flux, emissions

7. Preliminary Evaluation of AIRPACT-CMAQ
PM2.5 at Pullman during the Columbia Complex Fire Event
Fire Started Aug 22
Observed Pullman PM2.5 Aug. 20th – Sept. 10th, 2006
µg/m3
Hourly
24-hr Avg.
Mean 14
Max 70 44
EPA Standard: 35
Captured the general trend in PM2.5 mass concentrations during the fire event, however, for specific days in Aug 29 and Sept 5th, the model over predicted total PM2.5

8. Preliminary Evaluation of AIRPACT-CMAQ
PM2.5 at Pullman during the Columbia Complex Fire Event
Further look at the speciated PM output shows the peaks are from organic aerosol component – mainly Primary organic aerosol (AORGPA). Since AORGPA is a directly proportional to POA emissions, that’s part of wild-fire emission, it suggest a possible over estimate of POA, or incorrect MM5 wind shift over to Pullman..
PM2.5 speciation profile for fire called for 77% POA, 16% PEC, 5% PMFINE,