1. Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Anita Charlesworth Director of Research and Economics, the Health Foundation
@AnitaCTHF
June 2019

2. June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Planned and assumed allocation of NHS England funding growth 2018/19 to 2023/24
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

3. Pay is critical Pay is the biggest cost for NHS hospitals
June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Pay is critical
Pay is the biggest cost for NHS hospitals
Since 2010 government stretched NHS funding by holding down pay – NHS real earnings fell by more than the wider economy
New NHS pay deal – pay will rise by c.2% a year above inflation to 2021
OBR expects earnings across the economy to grow faster than inflation up to 2023/24
After years of below inflation pay increases, staffing shortages and ongoing challenges recruiting staff from overseas, its hard to see how the NHS could constrain pay and recruit and retain staff.
Every 1% increase in pay adds £500 million to NHS costs, reducing the amount of extra activity that can be provided for a given budget.
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

4. June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Estimated acute and specialist activity growth and recent growth rates from The NHS long term plan
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

5. Growth in components of acute activity since 2008/09
June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Growth in components of acute activity since 2008/09
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

6. June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Change in FTE nursing staff numbers in the NHS Hospital and Community Health Service relative to 2018/19
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

7. Phasing of real terms growth in NHS England’s budget
June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Phasing of real terms growth in NHS England’s budget
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

8. June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Service output and FTE nursing staff numbers in the NHS Hospital and Community Health Service 2010/11–2016/17
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

9. Fixed capital formation in health care, 2000–16, OECD countries
June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Fixed capital formation in health care, 2000–16, OECD countries
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

10. June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Department of Health and Social Care spending under different scenarios
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

11. Social care funding gap in 2023/24
June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Social care funding gap in 2023/24
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

12. June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Real terms growth in the NHS England budget, GDP, and total public spending
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn

13. June 2019
Investing in the NHS Long Term Plan – Job done?
Department of Health and Social Care spending as a percentage of total departmental spending
#Confed19 @AnitaCTHF @HealthFdn