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The U.S. Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook
Kenneth Evans, Ph.D. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy JLab Annual Users Meeting June 26, 2019 Hi I’m Kenny, I’m a scholar at the Baker Institute, at think tank on Rice U’s campus down in Houston TX. I’m from VA and went to undergrad down the road, phd work in physics although I did what murray gell-mann called “squalid state” physics lmao Context Recent trends in U.S. R&D budgets President Trump’s FY2020 budget request and response from Congress so far Outlook for science policy in Trump administration
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Historic Federal R&D Budget
R&D proportional to total discretionary budget Remarkable stability of total R&D budget over four decades Recent definitions changes to “D” Defense and non-defense budget caps Source: AAAS
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Federal R&D Budget 101 No mechanism to set topline numbers for federal science and technology budget 12 agencies with >$1b R&D budget “President proposes, Congress disposes” Recent increase of temporary budget measures Importance of White House leadership Agencies Two records set last year in appropriations—5 of 12 appropriations bills were passed on time in 22 years, and of course longest shut down In the last FORTY YEARS, Congress only passed all twelve regular appropriations bills on time FOUR TIMES Since 1980, there have been 9 shutdowns: I am sure most people here are acutely aware of how disruptive and damaging shutdowns can be Voice for science OMB
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Three year budget cycle
Budget Appropriation OMB Review Agency Planning Release Execute Budget Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Omnibus passed 2/15/19 5 bills passed SHUT DOWN Release I almost always give a budget talk in the fall, strange to not be under a CR Begins Oct. 1 ends Sept 30 Two year process, starts 18mo before actual appropriation hearings three budgets are somewhere along this two year timeline at any given date Budget resolution – not law, but sets top-line numbers for discretionary and non-discretionary Limits are set: one for each 12 subcommittee Wildly different appropriations R&D based agencies compete with non-science agencies: Each bill has to get out of committee to be considered by the full appropriations committee Budget resolution OSTP-OMB joint memo
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Appropriations Process
Dept. of Ed Appropriations Subcommittees Commerce, Justice, Science, & Related Agencies (CJS) Energy & Water Development, & Related Agencies (E&W) Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, & Related Agencies (Labor-H) Others… NASA NSF DOE Total Discretionary Allocation Budget Committees DOJ Commerce Army Corps of Engineers NIH FDA Dept. of Labor Subcommittee Allocation the NIH budget is part of the Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education appropriations bill, and thus competes directly with the Labor and Education departments for funding from the same pool. Source: AAAS
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FY2020 Budget Proposal $4.7 Trillion Cuts across most federal agencies
Overall 5-7% cut in R&D DOD ~7% NIH ~14% NSF ~7% DOE ~16% NASA ~ 4% Fighting over small slice of pie R&D proportional to total discretionary funds, remarkably consistent Slice is projected to shrink, so will R&D budgets Source: AAAS
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FY2020 Budget Overview $4.7 Trillion Cuts across most federal agencies
Overall 5-7% cut in R&D DOD ~7% NIH ~14% NSF ~7% DOE ~16% NASA ~ 4% Fighting over small slice of pie R&D proportional to total discretionary funds, remarkably consistent Slice is projected to shrink, so will R&D budgets Source: AAAS
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FY2020 Budget Overview This week U.S. House passed for appropriations bills, including DOE $37.1b total Up $1.4b from FY2019 $5.6b above President’s request $6.87b for DOE Office of Science, up $285m from FY2019 level and $1.3b above President’s request Fighting over small slice of pie R&D proportional to total discretionary funds, remarkably consistent Slice is projected to shrink, so will R&D budgets Source: AAAS
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White House Scientific Leadership
U.S. President Office of Science and Technology Policy Director: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier U.S. Chief Technology Officer (CTO): Michael Kratsios National Science and Technology Council President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST)? NSTC OSTP Director CTO Security & Int’l Affairs Science Technology & Innovation Structure within OSTP is variable within each administration. OSTP is allowed up to 4 senate confirmed associate directors. Traditionally but not always they map to “energy, security, science or research and technology” – although in the GW Bush Administration, Marburger chose to only have 2 directors for ‘science’ and ‘technology’ OSTP manages two councils NSTC – whose role is to coordinate S&T effort across the federal government. Members include cabinet secretaries and directors of independent agencies which fund science, regulate science or use science to develop regulations… OSTP also manages an external advisory committee - PCAST
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White House S&T Organization
U.S. President Slow or no appointments of associate directors No more “Energy & Environment” directorate Focus on “technology” Changes to staffing? NSTC OSTP Director CTO Security & Int’l Affairs Science Technology & Innovation Structure within OSTP is variable within each administration. OSTP is allowed up to 4 senate confirmed associate directors. Traditionally but not always they map to “energy, security, science or research and technology” – although in the GW Bush Administration, Marburger chose to only have 2 directors for ‘science’ and ‘technology’ OSTP manages two councils NSTC – whose role is to coordinate S&T effort across the federal government. Members include cabinet secretaries and directors of independent agencies which fund science, regulate science or use science to develop regulations… OSTP also manages an external advisory committee - PCAST
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Outlook for U.S. R&D Mandatory spending continues to grow
Increasing federal debt Smaller share of discretionary budget Will Congress pass new caps? Shrinking Source: AAAS
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Outlook for U.S. R&D Mandatory spending continues to grow
Increasing federal debt Smaller share of discretionary budget Will Congress pass new caps? Shrinking Source: CBO
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Outlook for U.S. R&D Decline in federal investment in “D”
Increase in private investment, mostly “D” G.W. Bush NIH “doubling” Obama “doubling” efforts fell short in Congress 2018 NSB science and engineering indicators report: Chapter 4 images – Figure 4-3 There had been a gradual uptick in the ratio through 2009, the result of increased federal spending on biomedical and national security R&D and the one-time incremental funding for R&D provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 What happened in ?
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Outlook: Basic Research
Stagnate federal basic research budget Increasing role of private funding: foundations and universities “Alpha institutes”? Strategic planning
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Acknowledgements Baker Institute Kirstin Matthews (co-PI) Neal Lane (advisor) Katherine Bartos (intern) Sarah Lasater (intern) Twitter and Facebook:
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