1. Anirban Basu, Chief Economist, ABC
2012 Outlook
Anirban Basu, Chief Economist, ABC
December 16, 2011

2. Forecasts of 2011 in Review Goldman Sachs GDP: +4 percent;
Morgan Stanley GDP: +4 percent;
McGraw Hill Construction GDP: +2.5%
Reed Construction GDP: 2.3%
Deutsche Bank Research GDP: +4.1%
Macroeconomic Advisors GDP: +4.2%
J.P. Morgan GDP: +3.5%
Anirban Basu GDP: %
Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics:
GDP: 3.9%
Job Growth: million;
Unemployment: 8.7 percent

3. Joy to the World

4. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2012*
* data are projections
Source: International Monetary Fund

5. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2010
Source: International Monetary Fund

6. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2011 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund

7. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2012 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund
Source: International Monetary Fund

8. 9 to 5

9. Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2011Q3
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

10. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through November 2011
11/11: K
Between November 2010 and November 2011, the nation gained 1,600,000 jobs.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2007 v
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2007 v. November 2011
All told 6,275K Jobs Lost
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups November 2010 v
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups November 2010 v. November 2011
All told 1,600K Jobs Gained
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13. National Construction Employment Monthly Net Change February 2000 – November 2011
Industry Sector
Nov-11
Oct-11
Nov-10
1-net
12-net
12-%
Construction
5,522
5,534
5,504
-12.0
18.0
0.3%
Residential Building
559.8
562.8
560.2
-3.0
-0.4
-0.1%
Nonresidential Building
668.7
669.9
658.8
-1.2
9.9
1.5%
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
842.8
849.8
845.7
-7.0
-2.9
-0.3%
Specialty Trade Contractors
3,450.6
3,451.1
3,439.7
-0.5
10.9
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros (NSA) October 2011
Rank
MSA UR 1
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
5.4 10
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
8.3 2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
5.7 12
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
9.1 3
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
6.2 13
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
9.6 4
Baltimore-Towson, MD
7.2 14
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
9.7 5
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
7.5 15
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
9.9 6
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
8.0 16
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
10.0 7
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
8.1 17
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
10.3
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 18
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
10.8
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 19
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
11.1
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
13.3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) October 2011
Rank
State
Rate 1
NORTH DAKOTA
3.5 17
MASSACHUSETTS
7.3 32
WASHINGTON
9.0 2
NEBRASKA
4.2 19
ALASKA
7.4 36
NEW JERSEY
9.1 3
SOUTH DAKOTA
4.5 20
MONTANA
7.6 37
ALABAMA
9.3 4
NEW HAMPSHIRE
5.3 21
WISCONSIN
7.7 38
OREGON
9.5 5
VERMONT
5.6 22
DELAWARE
7.9 39
KENTUCKY
9.6 6
WYOMING
5.7
NEW YORK
TENNESSEE 7
IOWA
6.0 24
COLORADO
8.1 41
ILLINOIS
10.1 8
OKLAHOMA
6.1
PENNSYLVANIA 42
GEORGIA
10.2 9
MINNESOTA
6.4 26
ARKANSAS
8.2 43
FLORIDA
10.3
VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA 44
NORTH CAROLINA
10.4 11
HAWAII
6.5 28
TEXAS
8.4
RHODE ISLAND 12
NEW MEXICO
6.6 29
MISSOURI
8.5 46
SOUTH CAROLINA
10.5 13
KANSAS
6.7 30
CONNECTICUT
8.7 47
MICHIGAN
10.6 14
LOUISIANA
7.0 31
IDAHO
8.8
MISSISSIPPI
UTAH
ARIZONA 49
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
11.0 16
MARYLAND
7.2
INDIANA 50
CALIFORNIA
11.7
MAINE
OHIO 51
NEVADA
13.4
U.S. Unemployment Rate: October 11’ = 9.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Baby Come Back

17. Architecture Billings Index December 2007 through October 2011
Source: The American Institute of Architects

18. Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place June 2006 through October 2011
Oct. 08: $719.0 billion
Oct. 11: $551.2 billion
-23.3%
Type
Value
% Sep-11
% Oct-10
Private
$279.6
1.3%
8.4%
Public
$271.6
-1.8%
-8.9%
Total
$551.2
-0.2%
-0.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

19. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector October 2011 v. October 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

20. Stairway to Heaven

21. Gross Domestic Product 2002Q2 through 2012Q4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

22. U.S. Employment Growth 2002Q1 through 2012Q4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

23. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups 2011 v. 2012
All told 1,392K Jobs Gained
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. U.S. Unemployment Rate 2002Q1 through 2012Q4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

25. ABC’s National Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) Average 2009Q1 through 2012Q4
2010Q3– 2011Q3: %
Source: ABC

26. Total Nonresidential Construction Spending: +2.6%
National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector v. 2011
Total Nonresidential Construction Spending: +2.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

27. Stairway to Heaven
Nonresidential construction volumes set to slump again…then recovery;
Europe, materials prices, EPA, bank lending, and 2012 elections;
2011: GDP 1.5%-1.8%; 1.6M jobs versus 940K jobs in 2010;
2012????
Economy hit a soft patch;
Recession no longer imminent;
Much will depend upon consumer spending this month and beyond;
Housing market will remain in recession through the balance of 2011 and into 2012;