1. LMRFC Reference Slide For Crest Tables
LMRFC Forecasts Issued Morning of May 28, 2019
Lower Mississippi
RIVER FORECAST CENTER
Talking Points
Heavy rain is forecast for the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and forecast crests were raised ½ to 1 foot from Cape Girardeau, MO thru Caruthersville, MO. The flows from the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Rivers should come in behind and the peak flows from the Arkansas River. This will keep the Lower Mississippi River elevated but should not cause any additional rises.
The peak flows from the Arkansas River are expected to approach the Lower Mississippi River in 1 to 1 1/2 weeks. This will cause rises of 1 to 2 feet for the first and second week of June. Heavy rain is forecast over OK & AR tomorrow so there is still some uncertainty on the eventual peak flows and timing from the Arkansas River.
Based on the current river forecast, the USACE anticipates opening the Morganza Floodway on Sunday, June 2nd. This would be the third time that the floodway has been operated with the last time being May Once the operation begins, Red River Landing, LA downstream to New Orleans, LA will crest and remain at the same stage levels. The Bonnet Carré Floodway will continue to operate over the next month.
The Atchafalaya River will rise 1 to 3 feet over the next several weeks. Morgan City, LA is forecast to crest at 10.0 feet for the third week of June. This would be the 3rd highest crest on record and the highest since May 2011.
The 16 day future rainfall guidance continues to show another rise on the Upper Mississippi River for the first or second week of June. The crest could reach higher levels than the current forecast at Cape Girardeau, MO and Thebes, IL. The Lower Mississippi River would see secondary rises from Cairo, IL downstream to Helena, AR. Elevated stages would dampen the rises as it approaches the junction of the Arkansas River and elevated stages would remain for June and July.
Today, Red River Landing, LA has tied the 1927 record for consecutive days above flood stage with 152 days.

2. MS River at Caruthersville
Ohio/Mississippi River Crest Watch
Created May 28 10:00am CDT
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center weather.gov/lmrfc
NWSLMRFC
@NWSLMRFC
MS River at Caruthersville
Current: 31.9’ ACTION
Forecast:
Crest in Minor at
33’ on Friday 6/7
OH River at Paducah
Current: 27.9’
Forecast:
Falling and remain below flood stage
2 Days
2 Days
0.5 Day
MS River at Memphis
Current: 28.7’ ACTION
Forecast:
Remain in Action
over the next 5 days
OH River at Cairo
Current: 42.6’ MINOR
Forecast:
Crest in Minor at
45’ on Thursday 6/6
MS River at Ark City
Current: 41.1’ MODERATE
Forecast
Crest in Moderate at 43.5’ on Friday 6/7
MS River at Greenville
Current: 53.4’ MODERATE
Forecast:
Crest in Moderate at
55.5’ on Saturday 6/8
5 Days
1 Day
2 Days
MS River at Natchez
Current: 57.0’ MAJOR
Forecast:
Crest in Major at
59’ on Friday 6/10
MS River at Vicksburg
Current: 49.3’ MODERATE
Forecast:
Crest in Moderate at 51.5’ on Sunday 6/9
2 Days
MS River at Baton Rouge
Current: 43.8’ MAJOR
Forecast:
Crest in Major at
44.5’ on Wed 6/5
MS River at New Orleans
Current: 16.7’
Forecast:
Steady with tidal fluctuations
2 Days
Bonnet Carré Location
Morganza Location

3. Atchafalaya River Crest Watch
Created May 28 10:00am CDT
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center weather.gov/lmrfc
NWSLMRFC
@NWSLMRFC
Black River at Jonesville
Current: 54’ MODERATE
Forecast:
Remain in Moderate
over the next 5 days
Backwater
Black River at Acme
Current: 49.8’ MINOR
Forecast:
Remain in Minor
over the next 5 days
Atchafalaya River at Simmesport
Current: 40.1’
Forecast:
Crest at 42’ on
on Sunday 6/9
Atchafalaya River at Melville
Current: 31.2’
Forecast:
Crest in Action at
33’ on Sunday 6/9
0.5 Day
0.5 Day
Atchafalaya River at Krotz Springs
Current: 27.8’ ACTION
Forecast:
Crest in Minor at
29.5’ on Monday 6/10
Atchafalaya River at Bayou Sorrel
Current: 12.5’ MINOR
Forecast:
Crest in Minor at
16’ on Tuesday 6/18
0.5 Day
1-2 Days
Backwater from Morgan City
Atchafalaya River at Morgan City
Current: 8.3’ MODERATE
Forecast:
Crest in Moderate at
10’ on Tuesday 6/18
Atchafalaya River at Butte La Rose
Current: 20’ MINOR
Forecast:
Crest in Minor at
21’ on Tuesday 6/11
1-2 Days
Backwater - Water moving upstream from Old River Control Structure
Old River Control Structure

4. Data provided by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Consecutive Days Above Flood Stage
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
Current data as of May 28th 2019
Forecast
Location
Record
(Days/Year)
2019
(Days/Period)
2011
(Days)
1973
1927
Cairo, IL
110
Feb 8th – Today 59 97 76
Memphis, TN 65 39
Feb 19th – Mar 29th 35 64
Arkansas City, AR
197 48
Feb 19th – Apr 7th 44 72
Greenville, MS
115
100
Feb 17th – Today 46 71
Vicksburg, MS
185 83
Natchez, MS
144
Jan 4th – Today 53 90 77
Red River Landing, LA
152
Dec 27th – Today 95
Baton Rouge, LA
143
Jan 6th – Today 79 99
135
Numbers in Red are records for this year and numbers in Green will likely break records for this year
Data provided by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers