1. Post Brexit: Utopia or Apocalypse
Post Brexit: Utopia or Apocalypse? Sarah Kirkpatrick, SFC and Andy Witty, Colleges Scotland

2. Four key impacts Business Readiness Erasmus EU Funding
Skills – will be the focus of this presentation

3. Colleges as businesses
Summary of SFC/Colleges Scotland work with colleges:
Development of Brexit checklist
Awareness of staffing, supply chain, legislative, regulatory impacts
Quantify direct and indirect EU income
Factor into financial planning

4. Total Funding Approvals (2014-18)
College
Total Funding Approvals ( )
€000’s
Borders College
451
City of Glasgow College
703
Glasgow Clyde College
179
Glasgow Kelvin College
380
New College Lanarkshire
4,620
North Highland College 61
West College Scotland
511
West Lothian College
767
Dundee and Angus College
976
Inverness College UHI 75
Moray College UHI 70
Perth College UHI 51
South Lanarkshire College
124
SRUC
195
West of Scotland Colleges' Partnership
240
9,402
Erasmus+
Significant Erasmus+ activity in colleges. Most colleges have bid to enhance their Erasmus+ activities in the next cycle.
NCL data is so far ahead of the rest of the sector that a graph is not visually helpful.

5. The future of Erasmus+ participation
Programme Country status = UK can access Erasmus+
If UK is reclassified as a partner country = no precedent to participate in Erasmus+ activity beyond “certain HE activity”
UK Government is also considering Domestic replacement – will this limit student exchange experience to UK only? Will colleges be able to access? Consultation is ongoing.

6. EU Funding – European Social Fund
Current allocations are protected to the end of 2023:
if there is a managed transition
covered by UK Gov underwrite in event of no deal
Next stage is development of Shared Prosperity Fund policy. Progress has been slow, but colleges should be ready to participate in planning and consultation on this.

7. Background Stats EU Student population College (FE)* College (HE)*
University (UG)
15,393
3,202
14,060 (3,915 entrants)
13,681
3,213
14,040 (4,455 entrants)
13,577
2,899
13,555 (3,945 entrants)
* Approximately 98% of all college enrolments have a Scottish postcode upon application.

8. Scottish Government’s EU student fee policy
and – EU students fully fundable –
Scenario 1: Brexit is delayed or doesn’t happen or we are in extended transition phase
EU students continue to be fully fundable
Scenario 2: A ‘no deal’ Brexit or Brexit with a short transition phase
EU nationals with settled status = fully fundable
New EU students likely to be treated as international students (will pay full fee, subject to immigration controls)
May be exception for students from RoI
Overall, EU student numbers are likely to reduce

9. Meeting Scotland’s skills needs: SFC approach
Meet employer/skills need
Meet student demands
Whole system responds appropriately and is joined up
Institutional stability
Learner Journey - Skills review - Access agenda - Demographics

12. Scotland’s Current Workforce

13. Scotland’s Workforce
Source : SDS

14. Sectoral / LA Hotspots Sectors * Source : SDS Food & Drink
Machinery & Equipment
Chemical & Pharma
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Information & Communication
Professional Services
Wholesale & Retail
Aberdeenshire
Scottish Borders
West Lothian
City of Edinburgh
South Lanarkshire
Aberdeen City
Eilan Siar
Highland
Dumfries & Galloway
Perth & Kinross
Falkirk
Midlothian
Shetland Islands
Argyll & Bute
Orkney Islands
North Lanarkshire
Angus
Moray
Renfrewshire
North Ayrshire
Accommodation & Food Services
Transport and Storage
Financial & Insurance
Construction
Sectoral / LA Hotspots
Education
Fife
Inverclyde
South Ayrshire
W Dunbartonshire
East Lothian
E Dunbartonshire
Stirling
Glasgow City
East Renfrewshire
Dundee City
East Ayrshire
Clackmannanshire
Source : SDS

15. Existing Challenges for Colleges
Diminishing demographic 16-24
Demand moves from FE to HE
More school-age pupils completing S5/6
Aged 24+ educated to higher level
City draw from shire regions
COWA targets
Alternative post-16 pathways
Direct recruitment of school leavers
Expansion of FA, MA and GAs
Big tech ‘education arms’ – focussed course content / online delivery platforms
Reminder slide

16. Scotland’s Skills Challenges
Demographic: ageing population and birth rates
Not enough inward migration of young people
Competition from emerging economies
Lifestyle choices – part-time working
Technology
Robotics, big data, artificial intelligence, virtual reality
Impacts all sectors
Need to upskill/retrain
Career changes

17. Brexit exacerbates
Diminishing demographic exacerbated with loss of new EU students
Future restrictions on immigration to UK
Direct loss of existing EU students & staff - likely to be small but will have impact
University response = threat to HE in colleges?
STEM, languages and business are key curricular areas
Also critical subjects: Teaching/ Medicine/Healthcare/Food Production
North East and central belt feel impact more
FA,MA,GAs rely on ESF funding
Recession?

18. What can colleges do? Adapt quickly to:
Understand their demographics & impact of university policies
Connect with employers
Understand national/regional skills needs
Develop activity to support economic stability and skills gaps
Replace lost EU workforce
Target re-skilling market
Maintain curriculum relevance

19. How should colleges be supported in this?
Engagement with SFC on demographics
Further regional analysis from SDS and SFC Skills team e.g. Skills Alignment model
Outcome Agreement process
Flexible funding system which supports development of new routes (eg in work training)
Employer linkages

20. Colleges Scotland Response
Brexit Readiness and Checklist
Retain staff and students
Secure funding (direct and indirect)
Cultural exchange programmes
Flexibility
Networks
Colleges have a strong track record in engaging with the less advantaged. The most disadvantaged groups are in fact more likely to participate in FE than other groups so it seems clear that disadvantaged groups are reached by the college sector. Therefore it at least has the potential to improve social mobility.
Literature identifies many of the non-economic benefits associated with education and training including improvements in health and wellbeing outcomes; social capital and cohesion; intergenerational transmission of skills and social mobility; the subsequent acquisition of further learning and qualifications; improved communication and autonomy, and reduced interactions with the criminal justice system.

21. Colleges Scotland Response
Brexit Readiness and Checklist
Retain staff and students
Secure funding (direct and indirect)
Cultural exchange programmes
Flexibility
Networks
Colleges have a strong track record in engaging with the less advantaged. The most disadvantaged groups are in fact more likely to participate in FE than other groups so it seems clear that disadvantaged groups are reached by the college sector. Therefore it at least has the potential to improve social mobility.
Literature identifies many of the non-economic benefits associated with education and training including improvements in health and wellbeing outcomes; social capital and cohesion; intergenerational transmission of skills and social mobility; the subsequent acquisition of further learning and qualifications; improved communication and autonomy, and reduced interactions with the criminal justice system.

22. Sarah Kirkpatrick - Assistant Director of EU Exit - SFC
Andy Witty - Director of Sector Policy- Colleges Scotland